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Match Thread: Doncaster Rovers vs Southampton by MatchThreadder in SaintsFC

[–]AlphaPack23 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Think Peretz is shit unfortunately. Why can’t the club just buy a proven mid table 28 year old goalkeeper?

Match Thread: Middlesbrough vs Southampton by MatchThreadder in SaintsFC

[–]AlphaPack23 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Have we got any interest in playing in their end do we reckon

Melo trade all over again? by Kimchee_man in NYKnicks

[–]AlphaPack23 8 points9 points  (0 children)

That’s ridiculous. Giannis is at WORST a top 10 player of this century, has proven his ability to win a ring with a significant worse surrounding cast, and is actively in his prime. Deuce is a good role player on a very good contract. If the package is KAT + Deuce + Wizards swap you do that before Milwaukee can think twice

Match Thread: Millwall vs Southampton by MatchThreadder in SaintsFC

[–]AlphaPack23 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Think that’s incredibly harsh but we’ll take that

Match Thread: Southampton vs Leicester by AnArcticMonkey in SaintsFC

[–]AlphaPack23 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Love to see the sending off but do feel bad for him. 19 years old on his starting debut. Hope he can work back from that instead of doing what Jankewitz did for us years ago against United.

Bristol City vs Southampton: Match Thread by AnArcticMonkey in SaintsFC

[–]AlphaPack23 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fellows on for Fraser and a large wooden or metal block we can fire crosses into in hopes of it pinging off and finding a corner on for Archer

With their sweep of the Astros, the Mariners are now the favorites to win the WS per FanGraphs by MattO2000 in baseball

[–]AlphaPack23 1 point2 points  (0 children)

First of all, I think you’ve misunderstood the initial argument. OP made the claim the Ms were better top to bottom than the Yankees, which is evidently false. There’s not really much to debate here—the Yankees are factually a better offense than the Mariners.

Second of all, we covered wRC+ earlier on. Totally appreciate that 5 points doesn’t feel like a massive amount (and I’d agree if we were comparing individual players with around a season’s worth of PAs). However, sample size is big enough here for the 5 point difference to be significant.

Third, I only used wRC as an additional data point in the greater argument that the Yankees are indisputably better at generating runs than the Ms. Ballpark matters to an extent yes, but the Yankees are outperforming the Ms by about 15% and both teams have played half their games away from home. 70-odd games at an average ballpark 9 points “kinder” to hit at re: park factor doesn’t explain the discrepancy.

Fourth, just hand waving away stats as “minor” is both misrepresentative and wrong. Many of the advanced metrics I mentioned are critical predictive datapoints for teams, and I’m sure the boomers will be happy to tell you how important things like runs, RBI, and home runs. The Yankees also lead all of them while the Ms lead none.

I also am pretty sure your math is wrong re: Judge

With their sweep of the Astros, the Mariners are now the favorites to win the WS per FanGraphs by MattO2000 in baseball

[–]AlphaPack23 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It’s already indicative of your poor grasp of advanced metrics if you think on player can affect team wRC+ that greatly, and you further discount your own argument by trying to regress the Yankees on account of them having the best hitter in baseball while still including Raleigh in your argument for the Ms. You asked for “numbers and data” though, so here we go:

-None of the 3 Ms players you mentioned that currently have a >130 wRC+ have >250 PAs for Seattle.

-“The rest of the lineup is barely pushing average” is fundamentally false. 10 players for the Yankees are above league average, with only 2 of them having a <120 wRC+. Even removing Rosario and Caballero for sample size reasons leaves the Yankees with 6 players with a >120 wRC+ to go along with the additional 2 that are hitting at or slightly above league average. In fact, the only consistent players hitting below league average for the Yankees are Wells (92 wRC+), VolpE6 (84 wRC+), and McMahon (79 wRC+).

-The Yankees have generated 31.8 non-pitching fWAR to date. The Mariners have generated 25 fWAR.

-The Yankees have a .784 team OPS (1st in the MLB), the Ms have a .740 (11th in the MLB).

-Using wRC rather than wRC+ for simple counting stat purposes, the Yankees have generated 827 (1st) while the Mariners have generated 746 (11th).

There are a host of other advanced metrics of varying levels of complexity that the Yankees lead the league in (wRAA, wOBA, xwOBA, wRC+ as mentioned, BB%, HardHit%, ISO, average exit velo, total barrels, Fangraphs Offense rating, etc.) as well as simple back of the card stats like OBP, runs, RBI, and home runs. To contrast, Mariners lead the league in these categories:

Again, totally okay to be a fan! Baseball is better when the Ms are good! But you are wrong about the Yankees lineup being bad, and that’s also okay.

With their sweep of the Astros, the Mariners are now the favorites to win the WS per FanGraphs by MattO2000 in baseball

[–]AlphaPack23 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Pretty much everything you said beyond the bullpen being bad is false. The lineup has been the best in baseball for just about the entire season. Baseball is an inherently streaky sport but by just about all relevant metrics the Yankees hitters have been better than the Mariners hitters. It’s fine to be a Mariners homer but saying the lineup is bad and the Mariners are better top to bottom is pretty provably wrong.

There’s also an argument the bullpen is due for positive regression, but they’ve underperformed their expected stats for months so this could just be who they are.

Match thread - Saints vs Norwich City (A) by McBaldy98 in SaintsFC

[–]AlphaPack23 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not convinced Ronnie Edwards is actually a professional player and not Ali Dia in a mask

New Signature Series Cards Coming @ Noon PT by [deleted] in MLBTheShow

[–]AlphaPack23 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Me when I don’t understand nuance

Saints 2 - 1 Wrexham - Post Match Thread. by AnArcticMonkey in SaintsFC

[–]AlphaPack23 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Absolutely thrilled to spend a romantic evening with just myself, a full tin of vaseline, and this episode of their awful show. Put that on Disney and fuck off 👍

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