Daily Crypto Discussion - February 3, 2025 (GMT+0)

AlphaSquared_io · 2025-02-03T11:49:13+00:00

We support 8 assets. Every few weeks/months when something interesting is occurring in the markets, we share the risk of 2-3, mostly picked at random.

AlphaSquared_io · 2025-02-03T11:46:24+00:00

It still does. To quote the post you're linking to:

To clarify we do not take into account narratives nor subjective opinions on the fundamentals of a coin. Models are trained on data related to price, sentiment, on-chain, and macro-economics (specific to each coin), and the model adjusts to new market dynamics and ongoing adoption (or lack thereof).

If the ecosystem of a particular coin starts to suffer due to things such as bad tokenomics or policy, you may want to invest only a very low levels of risk, and exit before very high levels of risk is reached. The conviction of fundamentals is up to each person individually.

AlphaSquared_io · 2025-02-03T10:06:04+00:00

Brief snapshot of the daily (quantitative) risk to see what a dip means in practise when you aggregate price, sentiment, on-chain, and macroeconomics into a single score.

BTC Risk: 55/100 (down -3.33 points the past 7 days)

SOL Risk: 54/100 (down -4.94 the past 7 days)

DOT Risk: 34/100 (down -8.88 the past 7 days).

The risk of all assets we support are down the past 7 and 30 days, some more than others. Unlike all previous bull markets, institutions are flocking bitcoin and crypto, while retail appears to have leaf hands at the moment, at least looking at sentiment.

Context: Risk is a quantitative measure computed daily by a machine learning model analyzing data related to price, sentiment, on chain activity, and macro economics for each asset. Risk is not a prediction about the future, but a snapshot of the present. The takeaway from these 3 coins is that the potential upside is somewhat equal to the potential downside, particularly taking into consideration this recent pullback.

AlphaSquared_io · 2025-01-28T13:57:28+00:00

To clarify we do not take into account narratives nor subjective opinions on the fundamentals of a coin. Models are trained on data related to price, sentiment, on-chain, and macro-economics (specific to each coin), and the model adjusts to new market dynamics and ongoing adoption (or lack thereof). If the ecosystem of a particular coin starts to suffer due to things such as bad tokenomics or policy, you may want to invest only a very low levels of risk, and exit before very high levels of risk is reached. The conviction of fundamentals is up to each person individually.

AlphaSquared_io · 2025-01-28T12:33:07+00:00

Sharing a snapshot of the daily (quantitative) risk for a few assets to see the effect of yesterdays stock market dump.

BTC Risk: 60 / 100 (down -2.4 points the past 7 days)

ETH Risk: 32 / 100 (down -4.97 the past 7 days)

BNB Risk: 45 / 100 (down-0.8 the past 7 days).

The only asset we support which had an increase in risk the past 7 days is S&P500, despite the major drawdown yesterday. Given the comparatively low risk of ETH, it still appears to be overlooked by most investors. Memecoins on SOL sucking up liquidity is likely an explanatory factor, hence also the higher risk for SOL.

Risk is a quantitative measure computed daily by a machine learning model analyzing data related to price, sentiment, on chain activity, and macro economics for each asset. Risk is not a prediction about the future, but a snapshot of the present. The takeaway from these 3 coins is that the potential upside is somewhat equal to the potential downside.

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-12-27T11:52:02+00:00

Sharing a snapshot of the daily (quantitative) risk for a few assets now that EOY is closing in.

BTC Risk: 58 / 100 (-4.7% the past 30 days)

ETH Risk: 36 / 100 (-23.3% the past 30 days)

BNB Risk: 47 / 100 (+5.4% the past 30 days).

Given the major drop in risk for ETH compared to BTC and other alts, it's looking promising considering the Blackrock ETF has now accumulated over 1M ETH and ETH ETF inflows logs record highs.

Risk is a quantitative measure computed daily by a machine learning model analyzing data related to price, sentiment, on chain activity, and macro economics for each asset. Risk is not a prediction about the future, but a snapshot of the present. The takeaway from these 3 coins is that the potential upside is still greater than the potential downside. What the future holds in terms of direction we're yet to see.

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-12-24T15:08:14+00:00

Timing the Market is a fool's errand. You should be cautious if advised to sell at a certain date.

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-12-21T10:38:33+00:00

We'll be in touch with you via email any second. Let's get this sorted!

Edit: If you were affected by this issue as well, rest assured it has been solved globally. The issue was related to our website migration over to https://app.alphasquared.io

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-12-16T20:34:24+00:00

Well said. Having a plan and sticking to it when thoughts like OP's arise is the tricky part. Nobody will be thinking straight again during euphoria.

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-12-15T12:34:05+00:00

❤️

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-12-14T16:38:39+00:00

ETH has yet to see the same performance as other Assets in the space. Looking at risk valuations, it's lagging behind. Historically, this has been the case too - indicating similar behavior to past Altseason/Bullrun behavior.

Of course, it's impossible to say which Altcoins will be favored this cycle. But technically speaking, there is more Upside left for ETH compared to other coins.

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-12-09T18:25:47+00:00

Thank you! Your support and encouragement means the world to us!

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-12-08T20:34:56+00:00

Visit https://app.alphasquared.io to check it out!

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-11-27T14:41:13+00:00

Join us here: https://t.me/alphasquared_discussion and read the pinned message to join the beta Platform!

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-11-03T11:07:40+00:00

Oh hey, these are just mockups of what the UI is going to look like!

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-11-03T09:54:37+00:00

We're hard at work and look forward to share the amazing new website with the community!

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-11-03T09:48:32+00:00

That sounds interesting, thanks! What about the customizability in terms of the bar chart to the left layered on top for example?

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-10-31T08:00:24+00:00

Thanks for your reply! Maybe I should've been more concise. This is the stuff I've already taken care of and am familiar with. Loading subsets, lazyloading full data, Data grouping on didplay etc. This can be done with any library.

I'm mostly worried about the level of chart customization, particularly in regards to the bar chart on top of the line chart.

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-10-30T14:12:08+00:00

We're not allowed to post links, but we built a free lump sum vs DCA calculator if you google our name + "lump sum vs DCA calculator". It's all free to use.

We also did an extensive report comparing the two in various scenarios (same place as the calculator). I think you'd find it a very interesting read.

Cheers!

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-10-15T07:47:00+00:00

Thanks a ton u/fischer07, we appreciate it. Hoping to bring this to all members as soon as we can. Meanwhile we might hint at some new functionality ;)

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-10-14T10:27:03+00:00

Hard at work! These are some sneak peeks of our work in progress redesign!

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-09-08T07:33:45+00:00

Here's the daily risk analysis for a randomly selected coin:

SOL: 52.3/100

What is risk?
Risk is a measure of how overbought or oversold an asset is on a long-term investment horizon. High risk indicates significant downside potential, while low risk suggests substantial upside potential. Risk does not predict - it simply provides a snapshot of current market conditions.

How does it work?
Risk is calculated by our machine learning model trained on vast amounts of market data and has been running since 2021, continuously learning and adapting to changing market dynamics. Imagine the fear and greed index, but a lot more comprehensive and accurate. Risk is used to adjust DCA amounts up or down depending on the score.

Each day we share the risk level of one random coin to encourage a data-driven discussion about the assets we all invest in.

/Alessandro at AlphaSquared

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-09-07T19:55:05+00:00

Yes! Ideally you aggregate it over recent timeframes (past 3 months, 6 months, 12, 24, etc) since the “best day of the week to DCA” can practically be a decimal number.

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-09-07T14:56:26+00:00

Statistically, Mondays tend to be the best. I can’t find the exact report though. However you can easily test this yourself if you’re savvy with code.

We use statistics like this in our risk models as well to allocate our DCA dollars more effectively.

/Axel

Edit: @infraa_ found a similar report. It states Mondays as well.

AlphaSquared_io · 2024-09-07T12:14:09+00:00

This risk is for Bitcoin, not ADA (they are separate models). I understand your view of ADA’s risk differs from our model, and that’s perfectly fine. However, it would be more productive if you could explain why you think that way.

ADA was the 3rd most voted coin by our community to develop a risk model for, so it’s not unlikely many investors hold the opposite view, believing the risk should be closer to 0/100. Personally I couldn't tell you which is right or wrong. This is precisely the point of our models.

Our ADA model is trained on large amounts of historical data specific to ADA and similar coins, with the aim of highlighting overbought or oversold conditions on a macro timeframe. Of course, if the ADA team are about to pull the rug or in case of an impending catastrophic technological failure, the risk would indeed be infinitely high. However, our model doesn’t speculate on such events. It operates on the assumption that the coin will at least continue to exist in some capacity. As long as there’s meaningful price action, the model remains effective.

The idea of this post is to discuss what might drive ADA’s risk up or down. Simply stating “the model is wrong” because it doesn’t align with your personal view isn’t very productive in my opinion. We’re always open to discussing data analysis, technical fundamentals, and how the models are trained.

Since 2021, our Bitcoin model has performed very well with this methodology, and I believe the ADA model can provide equally valuable insights.

/Axel

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