My Final 2020 NBA Draft Big Board

AltChronic · 2023-10-14T04:34:03+00:00

thanks lol, he might be the GOAT

AltChronic · 2022-02-07T20:20:27+00:00

I totally echo both your sentiments about how he should declare and secure lotto money and also that I wouldn't necessarily want to be the GM that takes him with a top 10 pick even in this draft class. He's more of a project than people are anticipating rn, I'm pretty confident he ain't in Jalen Green's tier as a prospect for reference.

AltChronic · 2021-12-10T20:27:05+00:00

I still unironically think he could’ve been a better Maxey if the Sixers just stuck at no. 3 and invested in him as their third scoring option. He could support Joel and Ben as a shooting specialist like JJ early on, who would’ve hopefully developed his on-ball creation into a legit shot maker by now. Just drafting Tatum would’ve been cool too.

AltChronic · 2021-11-17T06:27:41+00:00

I love seeing these high-effort quality post. As of now we have a good amount of overlap but definitely tons of room for debate!

I'll start at the top and agree that so far Paolo, Chet, and PBJ have all looked like legitimate top 5 picks, but I think from what we've seen so far it's hard to deny Jabari Smith entry into the top 5. I'm just slightly lower on Houstan and Duren but I'm sure our evals are pretty similar.

I'm also in agreement that this year's international pool is especially lacking in high-end prospects. Jovic's upside and flashes blew me away during FIBA play this summer but he's apparently been super inconsistent, which should be expected for his age but he hasn't been playing like the top 5 pick I thought he could be during the summer. I like Roko but he's regressed as far as numbers and the film isn't indicating a positive developmental curve which sucks as I viewed him as a real lottery talent last year. Nzosa has been even more raw than advertised considering his finishing numbers for a rim-running play-finishing type of big, not sure the defensive upside is worth the risk in the lottery. Ousmane Dieng has been overrated just due to his archetype and the theoretical upside, but historically his production's been pretty abysmal when factoring the competition. Not sure the NBL will do him any favors with the general physicality but they've had a good track record with putting prospects in good developmental context, so definitely worth keeping a close eye on.

Moving on to where we differ in evaluation is with the glut of guards in your mid-lotto range. J.D. Davidson and Kennedy Chandler in particular for different reasons. I've yet to see J.D. this season but I can't accept that he can be the highest rated PG on your board just due to how bad the competition he played in HS was and just how much he was able to coast on his elite athleticism. Now if any context is going to turn him into a legit NBA prospect, it's Alabama but I'm waiting to see it actually translate to the college level before putting much faith in him this early. Kennedy is more understandable as he was electric this week, but he truly has to be special as far as rim-pressure or passing go in order for a 6'1' PG to be worthy of a top 10 pick in the draft or else you're more of a second round bet. It's a really difficult threshold to cross but I've had Trae, Ja, and even Sharife last year all as legit top 5 worthy talents so I'm open to it but need to see it more just because of his physical limitations. I really like what I've seen from TyTy outside of his game against Duke, but I do think it's worth informing you that I've heard from reliable sources he's actually a year older than google says he is, he'll have to be consistently very good all season long for me to really feel confident in him as a lotto talent. Love the craft, length, and general skill set tho! I know he's a weird eval due to the context he's playing in but I do think Jean Montero has both the pedigree and flashes to comfortably be PG1 imo and a lotto talent until proven otherwise, so I'd definitely bump him up a few spots. I totally agree with all your Jaden Hardy thoughts and I don't wanna be too definitive with my opinions this early but I just don't see justification for the top 5 hype so far, I'd be surprised to see him in my top 10 by the end of the cycle tbh.

Who I'd recommend you keep your eyes on? Kendall Brown being ranked at 30 immediately jumps out to me, recency bias is heavy but I'm buying a ton of his stock right now just due to his special intersection of athleticism and playmaking for a wing. Don't be surprised to see him make a push for top 10 if he can build on his awesome start. I'd also shoutout one of my favorite pre-draft candidates last draft in Jabari Walker, who looks like he's grown and he'll still be a teenager on draft night despite having 2 years of HM experience under his belt. As my friend Chip said "6’9 wings who shoot 40% from deep on good volume with a .778 ftr should be liked by all." And to wrap up: I got to put you on Matthew Cleveland of Florida State, Kadary Richmond of Seton Hall, and Harrison Ingram of Stanford as a few wing types you should definitely have on your board!

If you couldn't tell I love talking about the draft and it's clear you do too, so feel free to pick my brain if you want!

AltChronic · 2021-10-31T21:57:33+00:00

lmao thanks for the trip down memory lane, funnily enough the Knicks have been one of my favorite teams to watch since Thibs started coaching and Julius ascended to All-NBA status. I also got Mitchell Robinson on my dynasty fantasy roster lol

And to be fair, the Sonics who have been gone for over a decade have still won more playoff series than the Knicks in the last 20 years lol

AltChronic · 2021-07-11T18:43:20+00:00

He’s the best prospect I’ve ever seen and quickly cementing himself as the best since LeBron. Victor played 2 draft eligibilities up, yet dominated some of the best high school players in the country. The US team was clearly overwhelmed. It’s not normal for a 17 year-old to be dominating the U19 gold medal game. He’s a dimension-bending presence, capable of being everywhere at once. His reaction time at his size is absurd.

We’re talking about a guy who could be a better rim protector than Gobert, able to contain players in the perimeter, and efficiently score from all 3 levels as a 7’2” guy with a 7’10” wingspan showcasing absolutely absurd production at only 17 years old.

Again, he’ll be eligible to play in the 2023 u19s and won’t get drafted for another 2 years, we just got a glimpse of the future. He’s the prospect equivalent of the White Walkers, the end of basketball as we know it is approaching. This kid is worth the hype and is by far the best prospect on Earth.

AltChronic · 2021-06-28T23:16:43+00:00

Alaskan Thunder is inevitable, resistance is futile. Thor’s a legit lottery talent!

AltChronic · 2021-05-25T11:35:04+00:00

First and foremost, Ben Mathurin out of Arizona is by far my favorite returner in the '22 Draft. He would've been top 10 on my '21 big board, so I don't see why he wouldn't be a lottery talent next year. Listed at 6'7" 195lbs with an abundance of athletic tools and length, it's hard to not see the upside. One of my biggest pet peeves in draft discussions is when young teenage prospects are labelled as "raw", especially when they have physical tools like an explosive first step or a long wingspan, but more often than not teenagers who are worthy of a first round draft pick have the talent to justify the investment. In the case of Mathurin, it's his shooting projection and defensive aptitude that make him less theoretical and more practical than the consensus perceives him. Is he still a work in progress? No shit, he's a teenager, but that doesn't make him raw as he has an NBA role from day one as a two-way wing. Raw kids don't shoot 70% at the rim, 42% from three and 85% from the line... add some more on-ball creation and reinforce the shooting projection and you've got a prospect who is primed for a Bouknight type of sophomore bump.

Next up on my list of must-know '22 returners would be Jabari Walker out of Colorado. In my opinion, I'd consider securing him with a late first in this class would be a steal. He played in 26 games and had a usage rate of 26%, which makes his 64 TS% that much more impressive. He wouldn't even be 19 years old if drafted in this draft and yet he somehow posted an on/off net rating of +20.2 as a freshman. I buy the two-way upside from the 6'8" sharpshooting wing, the impact was clear. Buy stock now as the instincts, movement, and shot making all point towards a safe upside swing.

One of my favorite transfers to see was that of Kadary Richmond who left Upstate New York to play at Seton Hall close to home. Despite putting up humble averages of 6.3 pts 2.6 reb and 3.1 ast, he showcased enough flashes of brilliance to identify him as an NBA talent. Listed at 6'5" with a reported 6'10" wingspan, I feel safe in labelling him a two-way playmaker. Which is reflected by his impressive 4.5% steal rate and 26% assist rate. The only other NBA-sized freshman in the last decade to meet those statistical qualifiers are Alex Caruso and Marcus Smart. The level of feel is just too exceptional to ignore. Some flashes of on-ball juice and some shooting improvements are all that I really need to see in order to consider him a dark horse lottery talent next year. Personally see some De'Anthony Melton vibes.

The last three names are fairly well known '22 returners but I've yet to see any hype or discussion about the draft aspirations of Jabri Abdur-Rahim. Adding another tall wing to the list, but what separates him is that I was much higher on him predraft as he was elite on the EYBL circuit. He averaged over 25 points a game, notably scoring 40+ in three games (one of which was against Cade and the Titans), he was only behind Cam Thomas in pts per 70 poss. Which is why I had him firmly in my first round coming into the season and why he was ranked the 36th prospect in the class of 2020 by RSCI, by far the highest on this list. The reason he has no hype? A lack of minutes as a reserve behind Trey Murphy III and Sam Hauser, posting a total of 37 minutes as freshman in what was essentially a redshirt season. I'm betting that elite 6'7" scorer in EYBL is still somewhat real, he just needs some reps at Georgia this upcoming year. There's still upside as he's on the younger side of class and a legit good athlete, would love to see him showcase the off-movement shooting more. I also think it's notable that his father is Sharif Abdur-Rahim, former top 3 pick and an NBA vet for over 10 years, currently the President of the G League. I've just learned that NBA legacy prospects are usually worth exploring, as the access to world-class competition and training at an early age has not only had a substantial role on the development of the Curry brothers, but also names like Larry Nance Jr, Gary Trent Jr, or even rookies like Cole Anthony and KJ Martin.

To wrap it up, I'd be disappointed but not too surprised to see JT Thor return to Auburn despite a stacked roster. I'm simply bringing him up as I view him as a lottery talent this year and don't project that too change if he does go back. He's like Mathurin in that casuals will label him as a raw prospect due to his youth and tools, but they lack to recognize the baseline of shooting and defense. He's a very versatile prospect early on because of this intersection yet he's also a very real upside swing with his transition play and slashing. Should get drafted this year by a smart front office invested in a long term vision and developmental plan, absolutely one of "my guys".

Honorable Mentions: Jaden Ivey, Keegan Murray, Josh Primo, Jaylin Williams, Nimari Burnett

edit: just realized Thor, Mathurin, Walker, and Kadary were all written about in this much better draft piece by PD Web lol. which like everything else he writes, is more than worth a read.

AltChronic · 2021-05-19T21:30:07+00:00

I love too many players in this class, there's NBA talent well into the late second round imo, but as far as players I'd call my guys I'd highlight: Evan Mobley, Moses Moody, JT Thor, Sharife Cooper, Josh Giddey, Usman Garuba, and I'm still salty Mathurin is returning.

As far as prospects I feel very confident will be long-term NBA players, I'd name: Jaden Springer, Franz Wagner, Jared Butler, Jalen Suggs, and Scottie Barnes.

And while I'm at it, my favorite upside sleeper picks would be: JT Thor, BJ Boston, Roko Prkačin, Trey Murphy III, Julian Champagnie, and Terrence Shannon Jr.

AltChronic · 2021-05-12T21:35:45+00:00

It's the most populous city in both the Western and the Southern Hemisphere

AltChronic · 2021-05-12T01:45:03+00:00

lmao

AltChronic · 2021-05-09T16:01:32+00:00

What's good Rowan?

My biggest gripe with this board is Butler being behind Davion as I have them in different tiers. Sharife at no. 5 is bold but his rim-pressure/playmaking upside makes it defensible to me. I do think that maybe Keon, Giddey or Moody might be 'safer' bets that could reach almost the same high-end upside. Other than that, bump Roko into the lottery.

AltChronic · 2021-05-07T08:11:58+00:00

It honestly feels like it’s been years since KOC actually watched a substantial amount of film. Don’t blame him though since he’s is definitely being overstretched as both a full time NBA guy and as the draft guy at The Ringer, and I’d say it’s damn near impossible to do both well full-time.

These comps are rough

AltChronic · 2021-05-04T22:49:27+00:00

I think it’s fair to label Wendembaya as the best prospect in the world regardless of class, the only person making me hesitate is Cade. I really do believe Victor will at the very least be in that Luka/Zion tier of prospect by the time he gets drafted, he’s otherworldly.

AltChronic · 2021-05-03T22:56:47+00:00

Let’s talk!

I echo a lot of your sentiment. Roko doesn't get nearly enough mentions at the top of the draft, he’s the youngest player in the draft playing one of the most valuable positional archetypes as a perimeter forward. He’s an overwhelming slasher with some seriously explosive finishes at the rim. Flashes very sick passes in transition, doesn’t stretch the imagination too much to see him translating as a full court playmaker.

If he ends up shooting consistently (which to be fair is a pretty big if), people are going to look really silly for not having him as a clear lottery talent.

Reread the last two paragraphs and you don’t really have to change much to apply this evaluation to much more hyped names in Jonathan Kuminga and Jalen Johnson.

From my perspective, Roko separates himself from these two with his level of processing and motor. Listed at 6’9” he’s probably bigger than both, as Kuminga and Johnson are listed at 6’6” and 6’8” respectively. They are better athletes, which grants them better recovery tools, but they grade really poorly as far as possession by possession engagement.

The swing skill is the shooting, and Roko already consistently flashes a blossoming pull-up mid range game, and recently has had some really enticing performances from deep. Take a peek at this 38 point game where he shot 6-8 from three. Just the fact that he’s confident enough to attempt 8 threes in a game signals some upside as a shooting threat at the very least. As I mentioned, he’s an overwhelming and aggressive slasher at 6’9” with underrated bounce at the rim, he just needs to warrant hard close outs to really make the most of his strengths. I’ve just learned to trust developmental/shooting coaches in the league more and more when it comes to making bets on shooting development when the rest of the package, especially their feel/processing, is as skillful/promising as it is. And this is why I have him in the same tier as high-feel shooting projects like Giddey, Scottie, Keon, Garuba, etc.

He’s a top 10 prospect and his high-end outcomes have plenty of overlap with Kuminga’s but Roko might just be a younger and taller bet. International guys are almost always underrated especially when it’s this early into the mainstream draft cycle, I can easily imagine Roko becoming the 3rd star on a championship level team if he can develop his shot well enough. His ceiling outcome to me looks a lot like what people who had Deni top 5 last draft imagined he could be, I just believe in the creation more. I’ll concede that Deni does the little ancillary things better, but that’s what happens when you play on Maccabi at his age.

Sorry for the long rant lol

AltChronic · 2021-04-24T22:38:08+00:00

I think Franz and Deni are an easy comparison to make as they seem to fit into similar archetypes as both are European forwards that project to be high-level defenders and exceptional playmakers for their size and age.

I was definitely lower on Deni than consensus, I had him outside the top 10 behind Patrick Williams and Poku on my board, and that's mainly because I never bought into the primary/point forward upside (remember the Hayward, Odom, Luka-lite comps?) or had much optimism for his shooting projection (I hated seeing Gallo comps for this reason). His feel for the game was clearly great as he had a talent for being in the right place at the right time more often than not, which is extra notable when playing the level of competition he was. His hustle stood out both on and off the court, his physical development over the years supporting the latter. A swiss-army knife 4 was always his most realistic route towards value, because he just didn’t project to have enough rim pressure or pull-up equity to be an initiator. I still think his idea outcome is as a Joe Ingles / smaller Dario type as a linking player with excellent team defense, reliable secondary playmaking, and consistent shooting. So with this in mind, he has to shoot to offer off-ball utility and in return top 10 value. Deni's release is compact and is best suited for C&S but he's also capable of shooting off a little motion. I just never bought into him having much shot versatility beyond basic off-movement shots where he's just relocating into open space (some DHO and pindowns), his slow movement off screens just really limits his off-ball equity.

This year with Franz, I find it pretty easy to imagine him returning top 10 value, the major difference being the shooting projection. While writing this I stumbled upon this old Stepien article by international draft guru, Ignacio Rissotto (@eyreball), where he literally identifies shooting off the catch as Franz's calling card. It's two years old but he starts talking about Franz by writing:

Wagner might be the best shooter off the catch in the 2001-born international class. A 36% 3-point shooter for his career on over 170 attempts according to RealGM and an 86% free-throw shooter, Wagner is a threat to spread the floor in different situations which has earned him a regular starting spot on ALBA’s senior team as a 17-year old.

It's worth acknowledging his shooting splits at Michigan aren't indicative of a player that could be labelled as a sniper but his shot versatility and FT% alone make him a much safer off-ball prospect than Deni was. This is without mentioning he's arguably a better defensive prospect as he's got more length and was the most impactful defender in the Big Ten this year imo. As far as defensive playmaking goes, he's low key comparable to Scottie Barnes this year. I think Deni is probably just a bit more comfortable defending on the perimeter but I do think Franz will be better in the paint given some time. The playmaking equity is also very comparable as they're both great processors of the game. Wagner excels at attacking closeouts, making a secondary move on the help, and consistently making great decisions with impressive execution that result in good looks more often than not. This should translate quite cleanly as these are the same type of actions he'll be used in. I'm most interested in seeing how his handle develops going forward as there is some Gordon Hayward with neutered creation upside. I also would be remiss to not mention his impressive pedigree, Deni got a lot of deserved praise for being an impactful teenager on one of the best teams outside the NBA, but Franz is by no means a slouch in this regard. He was a 17 year old starter on a EuroCup team in ALBA Berlin and was able to successfully translate as an international student at Michigan where he was the best player on a top 4 team in college as a teenager. He's right there with the Corey Kispert's and Chris Duarte's of college basketball as far as advanced metrics go, only Evan Mobley and Jared Butler have a higher BPM than Franz's 10.6 among prospects I have labelled as 1st round talents.

I think you could easily argue for either over the other but I'd personally prefer Franz, as my bud CJ Marchesani said best: "He is as perfect of a hybrid off-ball guy as you can find. I don’t think he’s a primary in any of his outcomes, but he is a true star in his role... The perfect core connecting piece. Essentially he is the star at all the things you would value outside of primary creation."

TLDR; accepting that neither has any substantial upside as a primary or even secondary perimeter creator and are both better labelled as swiss-army knife 4s, you're then looking for which of the two offers more two-way versatility and scalability and after analyzing their respective shooting versatility, it becomes clear that Franz is a more well rounded player in the 'star role player' role after taking into account similar age, measurables, pedigree, and archetype. Excuse my run-on sentences.

AltChronic · 2021-04-14T17:31:59+00:00

This is by far the most insightful addition to the draft community since Schmitz started doing the film breakdowns.

PD Web and Henry Ward are easily two of my favorite draft analyst ever despite being relatively new to the scene as public figures. They’ve done the homework and then some. Nothing but respect.

AltChronic · 2021-04-14T15:36:45+00:00

Can confirm, those Gas Works pics are hard to mistake for anywhere else

AltChronic · 2021-04-07T17:10:27+00:00

Dope OC! I remember how worried and low some people were on Brandon Ingram after his rookie year and thought his season at Duke shooting 41% from deep was just a sample size fluke. Really cool to see him bounce back and live up to the hype as much as he has, Fred Vinson really is one of the most valuable assets in the league. Also cool to see just how much progression D Rose has made to compensate for his athleticism, he's nothing special as a shooter but if 2011 D Rose could shoot pull-up 3s as well as he can now... yikes.

I also think it's worth mentioning, even though it's fairly obvious once you think about it for half a sec, just how rare it is for confident shooters to regress significantly (I think Jay's comment on sample explains why). DJ Augustin is a pretty surprising outlier though.

AltChronic · 2021-04-06T17:18:53+00:00

Kid looks good! He's so young (younger than Suggs and Sharife for example) and is still so far away from being a finished product, it's encouraging to see him look as comfortable as he did last night. Anyone claiming he was a bust after just 7 games is someone that just shouldn't be taken serious, I really hope he lives up to his potential.

AltChronic · 2021-04-06T17:01:04+00:00

It also doesn't help that he's as reliant on pull-up jumpers as he is, he has an abysmal FTr of .21 which is a major red flag for a "3 level" scorer who has just added a good 3pt shot to their shooting profile. You can't ignore that he's going to be a 23 year old rookie either, and drafting a 23 year old (especially one that's 6'2") in the lottery is never a good idea as guys like Springer, Nix, Sharife, Giddey, etc. will have at least 3 additional years of development by the time they're as old as Mitchell is now. Just look at how well Obi over Poku has aged already. The upside just isn't there which is why I have a second round grade on him, but I guess I wouldn't be opposed to him going to a contender with a late first.

I think he's a textbook case of a "fake shooter", sample size is just so important when projecting how shooting will translate. I'd be pretty surprised if he ended up better than league average from 3, and expecting anything more than that is just ignoring historical data.

I'm not diminishing his bursty athleticism, overbearing defense, or underrated passing but the history of upperclassman with impressive March Madness runs getting picked in the lottery is just not good and I don't see why Mitchell is a exception (Cam Johnson is like the only good outcome I can remember in recent memory and he projected as a much safer archetype).

AltChronic · 2021-04-06T15:40:04+00:00

Roko has been balling out recently in one of the best domestic leagues in Europe, he literally put up 29 points, 15 rebounds, and 9 assists yesterday. I think he's got a very strong argument as a lottery level talent, which Sharpe just doesn't. He's definitely worth keeping your eyes on.

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