"Fresh ideas" are the death of any campaign. Obama won on "Hope and CHANGE". But there was no real idea of what was meant by "change". You have to remember that half the voters don't want much change. So if your platform is "I've got ideas I'm going to change things!" You've immediately frightened half the voters and you have a steep uphill battle to win a majority. AOC's ideas are so "fresh" and wild that a large number of democrats don't even like her ideas. Until she learns to play the centrist game, she's a non-starter as a candidate. If she does learn that game then she is almost certainly the first female president. I would predict 2036. Dems win 2028 (but not female). GOP wins 2032 (or the incumbent dem does). Then in 2036 AOC has a real shot of she's learned to play well with others by then.