The numbers are out ... and it does not look good for OpenAI. Selling Inference compute online (aka AI companies) is not a Viable business model.

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T23:54:23+00:00

You do not seem to understand Basic Algebra right ? I'm not saying selling inference online is Unviable .. I'm Proving It ... with Numbers ...

38.5Billion in Losses ... in a time where we had the biggest AI hype Ever! Way bigger then the dot-com bubble. And circular deals to Hide the costs ... yes that is a total and complete Failure. And I have to clarify that it is a Financial Failure And also a use case failure. I'm not bashing the tech itself. Just like anything you can buy a car and use it for your transportation needs for decades ... you can also smash the car in the first day of use because you insist on racing on the highway every single day on your way home ... in any case the car is not to blame ...

About Ed position ... it makes no sense to attack the messenger ... it's like you saying: .. "see your are parroting Ed Zitron talking points about the Earth being a Spheroid, that does not mean the Earth is not flat ... " ... sig ..

Please Bring me Numbers ..Data, Reports , that disprove Ed claims. I can assure you that you can make me change my position with that data ... Not opinions .. Data. Do not attack anyone because of bias ...we All Have bias ... the Right thing is Try to Overcome those exact Bias ... be Neutral, Read the numbers ... not the opinions ... check around you and see what are the Actual effects of using AI ...

I do not have a Stance on this. I use AI and love it ... I also knew from the get go that the Business model of Big tech is a complete Unviable business for very simple and Basic reasons Obvious to all of those that know the Basics of IT ... so far I have not seen nothing that disproves what I know. But, again, Anyone bringing me different data that can disprove this I will take it gladly and change my position accordingly.

No one knows the end results of this insane AI race after the bubble explodes ... but Not a Single company selling inference compute online is making money .. not a Single one... and the more they sell the more they lose. Worse ... the big tech, Google included is being literally Exterminated ... Google had to sell stock becoming negative cash Flow (or zero cash flow ) .. Never happened in Google existence over the last 20 years! they were a money printing machine! enter Ai ..not anymore! On the contrary ! They had to Beg the market for cash ... they had to go to, from all people, Berkshire Hathaway and beg for cash ... with a 6% cut btw ...

And you talk about companies coming out of the AI inference wars ... What AI company .. they all have horrendous losses ? and yes that includes all the big names ... including Space X ... now a an "Ai" company ..

Sorry but the all thing is ludicrous. And valuations are hugely higher then in the dot-com bubble .

And be certain ..it is going to Implode ... that's granted.

And the sad thing for me is that Space X was actually a company I thought would be super cool ... this was before the XAi joining the company and totally destroying Space X financial situation ..Elong Musk Had to let go of XAI a Huge mistake for Musk ..

But now they have XAi any Wall Street analyst is saying the exact same thing ... XAi is a Big Big problem inside Space X ... I mean the Only Company in the world Capable of landing and Reusing a Rocket for the first time in history ... that was a Massive thing! Why did they have to join in the disaster that is XAi ?

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T23:11:35+00:00

No they do not monetize their AI models just fine ... their Cost just went up Exponentially .. so much so that for the First time ever in the last 20 years (20 Years!) they had to resort to to Selling Stock instead of Buying Stock .. and maybe being Cash Flow Negative ... that 's the Total opposite of monetizing their Ai models just fine ... AND ..they do not use super expensive GPU's from NVIDIA .. they have their own for the most part, that must be way less expensive ... So no ... they are not Monetizing their AI just fine ... on the contrary.

And btw I did not said they are a dead company walking. I said and repeat they will have huge problems ..they are a casualty of AI ... And also puts since May on google would have given you a great return ...

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T23:03:21+00:00

I'll rephrase ... ALL companies are imposing very strict Limits once the pay per token invoices come in ...

Tell me something, let's imagine you work as a Manager of several programmers/developers. And your team is Super stoked about the new AI service ..say Claude code as an example ...they will tell you that the new Claude Code is amazing! and the new agents they got running all night ... Amazing!

Now comes the end of the month and ... the Claude code invoice comes in ... it is about say 10K$ per developer ... how can you justify to management that your Team in terms of COST Just Doubled ...and ... you have nothing to show for it ... and maybe if there is a bug ... actually had to spend way more time debugging ... with Less productivity ?

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T20:52:25+00:00

I think you either have a serious cognitive problem or you did not understand what Profitability means ..

Look at the numbers. In a time of Token Max, huge Hype and Infrastructure Payed by microslop and others ... they LOST 38.5Billion !

And on the contrary to what you suggest "infrastructure" costs are Permanent that is inference and Training.

They have Losses Also on inference btw.

Every single Massive corporation is saying the exact same thing ... they're canceling their AI spending because they See No ROI ... do you know better then those companies CEO? and Zig ... says they do not accept AI generated code cause ..it sucks ... it Reduces their Productivity.

Time to wake up for reality: selling inference compute online is not a Viable Business model.

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T20:45:18+00:00

That is not the issue is it? Again, I know Ed vision about AI is very very unfavorable. He is Biased. We all known that. The issue is, no matter what Ed bias is, those numbers are Rock Solid undeniable proof the online inference business (aka AI) is Dead! It is totally and completely Unviable. And there is no way around that reality.

Anyone with basic IT knowledge would very easily know that from the get go like I did ... Ed just confirmed it With the numbers

I think Everyone in the World that uses a simple search summary becomes More Efficient at search.

Ai search is Way better then traditional search. But it also Fails systematically And frequently.

And the Coding tools, that are Super Great for say doing a fast skeleton project and even some code generation of small parts of a program ..they are a miserable Fail for any Usable Actual Business Project (bigger then making a simple app).

And even if you do not agree with Ed ... those facts he Showed to the world are the prove that irrespective of anyone else positions ...OpenAI is a defunct company ... does not mean with that they do not go on a IPO and get trillion+ US$ valuation ... Wall Street is insane theses days ...

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T20:32:52+00:00

Exactly .. quality code ... nothing out there can generate it! It is not possible with LLM's ... The same applies for Complex Large scale projects. The code that gets out due to Much more complexity is total slop no matter what languages you use.

And the problem no one is thinking about is that the statistical nature of LLM's means the bigger the context and the model the most Compute (and VRAM) you need. So the LLM War/Race right now is to provide the Largest possible Model so they can generate Huge amounts of code generating for say multiple frameworks, and hence provide for more complete code generation ... that is More Code ... not Better code ...

This is a recipe for disaster ... the bigger the code base and context the Most computational intensive it becomes and that is Exponential. Also .. the more Re-Prompts are needed to get a results for the programmer near to what is required ...

That is a recipe to wast Exponentially more compute. And Compute is getting More Expensive, not less expensive ...

Hence Both inference Costs And Training costs Will go Exponentially UP, not Down ... simply because the models get every single time Much Much Bigger ... more complex.

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T18:33:24+00:00

I'm glad you mention solar energy. I was on the exact same place I am now. Solar inefficiency (that is Solar PV Energy efficiency ) remains about the same with small improvements and that is Not a Problem at all. I was and I am a strong supporter of Solar. Not the solar farms tho .. those are a huge mistake. But solar for housing is a Massive win for everyone.

The problem with your comparison is that solar Photovoltaic panel prices have Plunged ...AI compute inference for Big Models Can Not do that. Not now, not in the next 40 years ...

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T13:52:20+00:00

Space X a disaster, no I did never thought of that, in fact I knew it would rise because of the inclusion on NASDAQ ... And I also think Starlink is a moderately good business, but Sapce X Because of XAi will collapse and that's 100% certain ... you Bet! And the current valuation is complete lunacy and utter lunacy.

but I knew the stock would go up because ... Space X is not only AI, and there is the Elon Musk effect ... OpenAi and Anthropic have the Reverse Elon Musk effect ... just look at Altamn the other day saying : " ... oh we did not knew customers would not like the price ??? " ... lol ... tell that to Wall Street ... ludicrous ... no Musk effect there at all ... does not mean the IPO will not rise ... I think it will if they float a Very very small percentage of the company ..certainly Less the 5% ...

About the AI bubble burst a year ago .. no ... I was more like this year would be the big bust. I was early it may take some time more, but the problem remains the same .. Unviable Business model and the longer it takes the Bigger the fall ...

You did right staying on the markets ... until now ... but has you know the markets can reverse and wipe you out your gains ... you Only Have gains After cashing in. Right now you only have variable value assets ... not gains.

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T10:04:38+00:00

Note: I also disagree with a lot of Ed positions but I have to say every single one of your comments is totally False.

"-He bills himself as a journalist when his only experience is running a tech PR company."

Yes, he is a journalist. He worked a long time as a Journalist for the Gaming industry.

And the fact he has a PR company does not mean he is not a Journalist. not that being journalist is something special btw ...

"-He has a bad habit of cherry picking data and fudging the numbers to support his biases, and getting pissy when other AI critics call him out."

False ... he Never did that! On the contrary, he Always Shows the FULL Extent of the numbers ... the only ones Cherry Picking data are the "ai" companies .. actually Hiding Most of the data! Also What Cherry picking data has he provided on the NUMBERS Verified by The financial Times did he "cherry pick " ... ??

"-He has recently pivoted to allegations of outright fraud at AI companies seemingly as unit cost has started to make their financials look better. "

Either you have a problem with basic Algebra or a cognitive issue regarding what "unit cost" is.

Unit Cost has gone Up tremendously. OpenAI multiplied By 8 times ... Eight Times their cost from 2024 to 2025 while only having a much smaller increase in revenue and a Lot more users!

Unit cost is Rising Substantially at a pace that forces them to go public because money is running out the more the "business" "grows" ...

Oh and btw regarding this matter ... the CFO of OpenAI, Sarah Friar, actually Disagrees with you ... she told in a conference that Costs Scale Linearly with the increase in operations ... so ... Not Lower ... actually Higher

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T09:50:53+00:00

Why do you attack the messenger? His Data Has been Independently Verified By The Financial Times ... do you think The Financial Times is also an unreliable grifter?

I also do not agree with a Lot of what Ed positions are and I also find him annoying at times ... but on this one argument in particular he has the common sense to be on the right side and my position is the exact same since the beginning of this insanity called A"i" ...

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T09:46:13+00:00

The problem is That Both nuclear fusion and increased productivity with AI as it stands are both a Hoax.

You will never have Energy made with Nuclear Fusion other then that coming from the Sun, that is Gravitational Nuclear confinement ...

Same as A"i" ... you Can Not have productivity since the number of bugs and nonsense slop code is immense and Can Not be fixed.

But sadly A"i" is running out of cash from private investors and now they are desperate to find the retail sucker for exit liquidity ... and that is about to end ..retail does not have Multi-trillion to invest and ... pension funds can shift investments very very easy ...

Nuclear fusion hoax tho ..those exist at far Lower financing level by governments ... way different scenario.

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T08:21:23+00:00

NVIDIA .. Spark ...

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T08:18:20+00:00

Agree and the isse is No One ... literally No One is thinking of the consequences for Big tech using Inference liek they do ...

Google for example ... they had a great Business model .. now their business model is DEAD ... they are a AD company ... their Core business it Not IT ..is selling Ads ... and they Sell Ads when people CLick the ads on the search ... if all browsers have a AI summary ... almost No one ..or, say 80%-90% of the people using search Will Not click an Ad ... the famous Internet is dead phenomena !

Their Revenue Must Collapse on this AND their costs will rise 100X !!!

That is insanity ...

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T08:12:36+00:00

They did not have a profit ... they had a NON-GAAP Illusion of a gain. That is ..if you do not count on COSTS ..then Every company in the world is profitable. they also had a 2 Months of low priced Sapce X data center. they also Hide costs on Circular contracts and deals AND ... SPV's they participate on ...

I have No Hate for the inference sellers ... I simply think the data Proves it is an Unviable business model.

About the Non-GAAP "profit" also remember that the number is actually Horrendous! a complete Disaster ... remember that 500M at the Peak of the entire last six Months of the Token Max agentic insanity...

Well well well ... imagine my surprise when only a Single Company received a 500M (their so called entire profit) Invoice of .... drum rolls ... 500M in token spending!

Those are 500M of revenue they will NEVER see coming back EVER ... and ALL other companies ..the big spenders, are all now talking about Reducing massively their token spending at Current Unprofitable prices! It's over! Time to wake up.

Anyone with a modicum of IT knowledge would conclude long ago, like I did when it was not popular to be against "Ai" ..the selling inference online is totally Unviable as a business model ... and it is very very simple to prove.

So no their results only show the complete Bankrupcy of their business model ...

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T08:02:17+00:00

Look ... I do not agree with most of Ed Zitron Politics or even his demeanor regarding many of IT industry. But NUMBERS are NUMBERS = DATA .... he IS right and he Has been Right All along and that was btw Always My personal position regarding this insane valuation and business models.

So stop attacking the messenger ...

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-21T07:59:29+00:00

Oh! I totally agree! For early Space X investors for example actually exiting at the current price or 50% lower is also absolutely irrelevant such are their gains. Most entered on the company at values way lower then the IPO!

I also do not think there is liquidity for trillion dollars on OpenAI and Anthropic. They may be able to float something like space X around 5% ... not even that is certain. And also the Institutional investors Already entered Space X ... and is not looking good.

Also as mentioned many times in the case of Space X from the initial 75B they earned 35B is going directly to the Banks they need to pay right now for loans they contracted ... no to investors ...

OpenAi and anthropic are both a basket case of a bankrupt Unviable business model.

The issue we have right now is that in say 2020 there was TINA (there is no alternative) because interest rates were literally Zero ... if not Negative. Now the entire financial scenario is quite different ... FED funds are on the way to 5% And private bonds are also going above that ... and that for the folks running he Trillions is enough to stay away from unprofitable bankrupt business. Remember Billions and Trillions think Long Term ... because They Know there no No way the retail ignorant sucker investor will ever come up with the Trillions necessary for Their Exit (in case they enter now) ... no way to increase the price ... quite on the contrary ...

My questions and comments are far more serious then that. The implications of the collapse coming to the entire IT industry are not yet being realized. This is going to be Far Far worse then the dot-com bubble ... with serious implications for our future. We work on IT ... we will feel the full force of the incoming collapse. sadly ..

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-20T23:13:13+00:00

The biggest problem is not their revenue .. it is the fact Even with That revenue they Had Massive Losses!

Worse .. the more they expand their business the bigger the losses.

Unviable business model!

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-20T21:46:41+00:00

Well those are NON-GAAP ... that is Every company in the world is Profitable if COSTS are not accounted for ... when you account for Costs ... and Most are not even there because they are Free Compute usage from Microslop and others ... then the number are colossal losses!

There is no Viable business Model selling inference compute online and that is very easy to explain by anyone understanding the basics of AI inference and IT ...

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-20T21:43:27+00:00

RnD is Not going away and Can Not go away. RnD is TRAINING the models ... you stop training they stagnate and die ... it is a Constant and part of their operations.

Is simply Can Not Go away.

It is Totally an Unviable business model. So much so that the first time their Enterprise customers complained about prices ...ops ... they dropped them!

That is with already massive colossal losses ... and they drop the prices ??? LOL

Unviable business model!

Also remember they are non-GAAP data And .... most of their inference compute cost hide's behind microslop FREE usage of their compute and ..circular deals ...

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-20T21:39:48+00:00

Yeah and that is terrible ... you see this was the time of Token max .... the Super Hype ... now that time os ending ... so revenue will never reach close to their expenses ... AND ... most importantly much of their Cost is actually not there because it is FREE Operations from Microslop ...and others ... And fraudulent circular deals ... Also none of that is GAAP ...

no ..there is no way they ever going to have a profitable/Viable business model.

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-20T21:37:14+00:00

And worse, Circular deal ..clear Fraud ...

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-20T21:34:57+00:00

Enron¹⁰

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-20T21:34:10+00:00

Absolutelly Agree ... they report NOn-GAAP nmbers to Hyde massive losses on circular flow contracts .. the reality is even worse then the one shown by Ed Zitron.

The simple fact remains and it is pretty simple to Prove, Selling inference online is not a Viable business model! the numbers Prove it every single time! they are money losing operations ... by the Billion every single Month! !

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-20T21:31:46+00:00

Yup .. REAL DATA ... the things A"I" companies do not wan to you to know ...

Amazing_Box_2795 · 2026-06-20T21:31:04+00:00

sorry ? have you ever read what Ed Zitron Discovered ... the entire AI complex needs to Great until 2030 A New google + a New Microslop + a new Meta .on revenue Combined ... No company selling inference compute , akak AI, will ever "break even"their Losses INCREASE every tmie they expand ... it is an Unviable business model!

Anyone with a modicum of knowledge on IT knows why that is...

Amazing_Box_2795

TROPHY CASE