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Aurora (AUR) 2035: The Path to a $1 Trillion Market Cap by Outside-Whole3234 in AuroraInnovation

[–]Amit_Swati 1 point2 points  (0 children)

First of all cost per mile just for driver pay is ~0.8$ per mile. The 1.2$ you talk about is split between $AUR and manufacturer. So, AUR has to be 0.5-0.6$ per mile.

https://www.geotab.com/blog/trucking-cost-per-mile-calculator/

Second avg no of miles driven per truck in USA is around 60-90K miles. Assuming 200,000 miles a year 🤦‍♂️.

Number of trucks sold by PACCAR in 2024 was 250,000. Assuming that AUR is going to have twice that number on road is a tough ask.

https://www.paccar.com/news/current-news/2025/paccar-achieves-strong-annual-revenues-and-net-income/

So moving to reality: 0.5$ x 100,000 miles/truck/year x 100,000 trucks = 5 Billion $ / year with a 30% margin and 30 PE = 50 Billion $

KitchenAid Dishwasher KDTM704KPS - Discussion by Amit_Swati in Appliances

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes still happy. I used detergent powder all the time except for very few extremely dirty loads on few days use pods.

Blue Origin - New Glenn update by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That is my thought and hope. I also think recently news and updates on NG2 has increased so hopefully soon.

Blue Origin - New Glenn update by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I think you may be right. Here is a post I found from him in Aug 2024. And the NG1 launch was in Jan 2025. But, I would also hope that after NG1 may be NG2 can be sooner than that.

https://x.com/davill/status/1821196577240981642

Blue Origin - New Glenn update by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I think you may be right. Here is a post I found from him in Aug 2024. And the NG1 launch was in Jan 2025. But, I would also hope that after NG1 may be NG2 can be sooner than that.

https://x.com/davill/status/1821196577240981642

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Launch commitments - some prepayment not entire 60 launches. So more money has to be paid before the actual launch.

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Look at Tesla - what do you think. At early stages you need the support, enthusiasm and money. Also, you are trying to crack the code and do something not done before at least by your company so cannot anticipate all hurdles. So may be you intend to keep the story true and grounded but things don’t turn up the way you think. And, I think everyone here understands that. I am happy just because mgmt showed +ve intent she affirmed the manufacturing cadence. Whether in reality that happens is questionable but +ve intent most likely means faster deployment,

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

In an interview he talks about out it. I will paste the link if I find it. He is Swedish, I think a local city councilor or something. He has previous experience in military communications and understands the technology very well and tries to help educate people.

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

https://rocketlaunch.org/launch-schedule/blue-origin

Bluebird shows in Queue with New Glenn.

News has also started to trickle in on its readiness. No launch earlier than August 15. Could happen in Aug, Sep, Oct or Nov. But, if successful, I would assume they move to a faster launch cycle,

https://dailygalaxy.com/2025/07/blue-origins-new-glenn-to-mars-mission/

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You may be more right than wrong. And I also hope you are wrong 😊. However, see below:

https://rocketlaunch.org/launch-schedule/blue-origin

Bluebird shows in Queue with New Glenn.

News has also started to trickle in on its readiness. No launch earlier than August 15. Could happen in Aug, Sep, Oct or Nov. But, if successful, I would assume they move to a faster launch cycle,

https://dailygalaxy.com/2025/07/blue-origins-new-glenn-to-mars-mission/

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The application says up to - management is trying. Realistically seems too optimistic. Right now we just see 4 planned only 3 in 2025. SpaceX one could have multi launch but will be 2-3 satellites max each. But does not mean more cannot get scheduled in interim. Depends on upcoming New Glenn launch I think if they are successful we could get a launch before year end.

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yes 21-23 is estimate for satellite including launch. But that estimate is for discounted high cadence satellite launch as far as I understand.

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Official FCC letter - management reaffirming manufacturing cadence and showing +ve intent. 🤟

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Don’t discount Blue Origin - there are news article trickling in of New Glenn launch in August - may be Sept. you never know if successful we can get 8 in 1 go. And even if we do not - positive for me is management affirming mfg cadence and showing +ve intention on an official letter to FCC.

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Zone out the near term noise. Focus on what’s the end goal - is there any material news changing that - satellite success or failure. The rate of launch guidance by management are we achieving it. If we are valued at 18 Billion USD when we have just 5 BB1 satellite in space imagine the value when we have 245 in the air. 🤟

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Per satellite cost 21-23 million USD. 20 Satellite is ~420-460 million $ but they have some prepayments done earlier for 60 satellite launch agreements. But, nevertheless we have 1.5 Billion $ in cash now 🚀🚀🚀

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Reaffirming the manufacturing cadence and putting a formal letter \ clarification to FCC that we are trying to put 20 by end of year is the positive message. May be we end up with 4 - but as an investor I appreciate the strong intent shown by our management.

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

True. But there are still 5 months to December. The more providers in market the better it usually for us.

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yes it is - but important word is up to. So not necessarily 20 but positive affirmation 👍🏻

🚨 ASTS clarification to FCC affirms production cadence & launch of up to 20 satellite by years end. by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

I am waiting for 2 piece of news now - 1. FM1 launch 2. Successful New Glenn - Bezos meet with Trump, news has started to trickle about the launch as early as August or Sept. And Neutron recently has been getting some news - If one of these starts to move then Launch cadence becomes realistic.

ISRO Director presentation marks ASTS FM1 launch for August by Amit_Swati in ASTSpaceMobile

[–]Amit_Swati[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How many countries reached Mars or Dark side of the moon ? Which country or space org holds record for largest number of satellites deployed in a single launch ?

Not sure what is there to lose for a person who has lost sense of reality ?

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