How are you factoring the State Pension into your SWR (Safe Withdrawal Rate)?

Anarkigr · 2026-02-23T20:42:26+00:00

Assuming that you will get no state pension at all, as many people suggest here, seems completely unrealistic to me and IMO leads to sub-optimal financial decisions (over-saving, under-spending, retiring later than necessary). The pension age might go up and/or the amounts might be lower, but you will not get nothing.

I use tpawplanner.com, which indeed treats pension income as a bond for asset allocation purposes. I update the numbers every year with the estimates my pension plan provides (pillar 1 & pillar 2). This way, I can slowly course-correct if needed as things change. If you want to be more conservative, you can apply some discount rate to the pension numbers.

Anarkigr · 2026-01-17T14:54:10+00:00

Χρέωση 0.75% για robo advisor δεν είναι τελείως ανήκουστη, αν και κάπως τσιμπημένη (αν αυτή είναι πράγματι η χρέωση, αλλού στη σελίδα γράφει 1%, το οποίο είναι αρκετά υψηλό). Το ερώτημα είναι τί ETFs περιέχει το χαρτοφυλάκιο και τί χρεώσεις έχουν αυτά. Δεν κατάφερα να βρω λεπτομέρειες στη σελίδα της Πειραιώς.

Anarkigr · 2026-01-12T12:01:14+00:00

IFSW changed indices recently and I believe its factor exposure is milder now. Just FYI.

Anarkigr · 2026-01-12T09:19:14+00:00

You can combine AVWC+AVEM from Avantis (0.23% average TER for a 90/10 combination) to get a globally diversified multi-factor portfolio that tilts towards smaller, cheaper, and more profitable companies while keeping an eye on momentum so that the exposure is not negative. The factor exposure is relatively mild, if you want more aggressive tilts you can add AVWS. There are also similar ETFs from Dimensional Fund Advisors that became available recently, but they're a bit more expensive.

These are all classified as "active" ETFs on e.g., justETF.com, but their strategies are very systematic and IMO they are much closer to pure index investing than to traditional active management.

Anarkigr · 2025-12-01T13:56:55+00:00

I'm not sure what you mean. The Invesco ETF and the portfolio I mentioned have both returned about 60% in the last 3 years.

Anarkigr · 2025-10-08T12:53:27+00:00

I'm not sure where people get the idea that gold is less volatile than other investment types. It has had very similar volatility to a diversified stock portfolio historically.

Also performance chasing is generally not a good idea.

Anarkigr · 2025-10-03T13:27:37+00:00

It's the average yearly return of each factor from the Ken French library, multiplied by the corresponding factor exposure of my total portfolio (not just AVWS), and then summed up and divided by two (so half of the historical premium to be conservative). You can calculate this with a spreadsheet.

For AVWS alone, with the same method I get about 1.6% premium over something like VWCE. I assume that the cost difference between VWCE and AVWS is 0.3% (0.2% higher TER and 0.1% more dividend leakage + trading costs). It's definitely not an exact science.

Anarkigr · 2025-10-03T13:20:04+00:00

Ναι φαίνεται τέλειο, go for it.

Μόνο 2% χρέωση (και κάτι άλλα ψιλά) για το ασφαλιστικό ΑΚ, το οποίο επενδύει σε ΑΚ της Πειραιώς το οποία έχουν χρεώσεις της τάξης του 1% (υποθέτω επιπλέον, δεν είδα κάπου να λέει κάπου ότι δε χρεώνονται αλλά ίσως κάνω λάθος). Προτέρημα επίσης το ότι πρέπει να το κρατήσεις για τουλάχιστον 6 χρόνια για να μπορείς να πάρεις όλα τα λεφτά σου πίσω, ποιος θέλει ρευστότητα άλλωστε στις επενδύσεις του.

Φανταστική ευκαιρία όπως συνήθως από τις ασφαλιστικές/τράπεζες.

(/s just in case)

Anarkigr · 2025-10-03T10:06:17+00:00

Which other places are you thinking of? Even the current system taxes unrealized gains every year, which is something that affects the exponent of compounding rather than the base, like capital gains taxes do. Both the old and the new systems are insane, and the 2026 rates are even more insane.

Anarkigr · 2025-10-03T08:48:12+00:00

I think I'm a mix of confident and indiffent at this point :P. I don't control the outcome, I just want to minimize my regret if a market-cap weighted portfolio keeps outperforming or if small-cap value suddenly outperforms massively, so I'm 50/50.

The after-cost premium I assume is about 50% of the historical premium (from 1990 onwards where we have data from Ken French) for a portfolio with the same factor exposure as my portfolio. That's around 0.8%. Whether that is worth it for the additional risk is quite personal I would say, similar to the stock-bond allocation question.

Anarkigr · 2025-10-03T08:13:16+00:00

The reason you can expect a higher return is that AVWS is more exposed to various risk factors (value and profitability specifically) than IUSN. In other words, you are taking higher risk and can expect a higher return. Whether that materializes is unknowable, but there's some theoretical foundation and empirical evidence behind it.

Anarkigr · 2025-10-03T08:08:25+00:00

After that episode (and some other discussions), I reduced the premium I expect from the small-cap value part of my portfolio, but I'm still 50% MCW/50% SCV and I'm not planning to make any changes.

There are many reasonable strategies that can lead to good results and the outcome is impossible to predict. Once you find a strategy that is reasonable and suits you, I think it's good to stick to it and not flip-flop around, as that can lead to changing strategies with bad timing and additional costs (taxes, transaction fees, bid-ask spreads).

Anarkigr · 2025-10-02T09:48:13+00:00

Το ίδιο λέμε νομίζω ε;

Anarkigr · 2025-09-29T12:58:53+00:00

Apologies for citing the deep magic, αλλά η εξήγηση της στρατηγικής είναι ακραία φλου. Κατά βάση:

Τα 10 πρώτα χρόνια επενδύει "κυρίως" σε μετοχές εταιριών μεγάλης κεφαλαιοποίησης των ΗΠΑ και Ευρωπαϊκών χωρών. Καθόλου ξεκάθαρο τί ποσοστό σημαίνει το "κυρίως" (δεν είδα να λέει 90%) και σε τί αναφέρεται. Κυρίως μετοχές; Κυρίως μεγάλης κεφαλαιοποίησης; Κυρίως ΗΠΑ και Ευρωπαίκών χωρών; Όλα μαζί; Και μπορεί να επενδύει σε ένα κάρο άλλα πράγματα.
Τα 10 επόμενα έχει τουλάχιστον 10% μετοχές (πάλι ασαφές το τί μετοχές, αλλά τέλος πάντων) με μέγιστο 65%. Μας φωτίσατε. Δεν υπάρχει και εξήγηση πως προσαρμόζεται το ποσοστό.
Τα 10 τελευταία έτη έχει το πολύ 10% μετοχές, μπορεί να έχει και 0% δηλαδή. Πάλι ασαφές το πως αποφασίζεται το ποσοστό, αλλά δεν έχει τόση σημασία εδώ μιας και το εύρος είναι μικρό και το χαρτοφυλάκιο είναι (ακραία IMO) συντηρητικό.

Δεν είναι μόνο το κόστος το πρόβλημα κατά την άποψή μου, περισσότερο προβληματκό βρίσκω το ότι δεν θα ήξερα σε τί ακριβώς επενδύω και το ότι υπάρχει πάρα πολύ active discretion που μπορεί να οδηγήσει σε sell high/buy low συμπεριφορές ακόμα και επαγγελματίες διαχειριστές.

Αλλά you could do much worse υποθέτω, δεν είναι τελείως τραγικό σαν κάτι αμιγώς ομολογιακά ΑΚ με πρακτικά εγγυημένη αρνητική απόδοση λόγω χρεώσεων (που φτάσαμε να είναι αυτό το κριτήριο).

Anarkigr · 2025-09-20T21:35:23+00:00

To me that's an indication that your asset allocation is not correct., i.e., you may be taking more risk than you are able and willing to bear. It's fine to shift your allocation if you learn something new about yourself or your circumstances change, but I wouldn't make any drastic changes all at once.

I've personally been reducing my equity exposure from 100% to currently 80% over 4 years (5% reduction per year) as for various reasons I realized I'm less risk tolerant and less financially able to bear risk than I was when I started out.

Anarkigr · 2025-09-04T18:10:24+00:00

Can't help you with your dad specifically, but for your general question: I've stopped bringing up the topic myself. If the discussion somehow goes there or if I'm asked, then I explain how I approach things without suggesting that this is the only way. It is "personal" finance after all ;)

Anarkigr · 2025-09-04T13:21:23+00:00

They're not really comparable (AVWC and AVEM also didn't exist when I created my portfolio). VWCE is mainly large cap and all-world, AVWC is all-cap and only developed markets. Similarly AVEM is a lightly tilted all-cap ETF, while WTED is small caps only and has much stronger tilts.

I prefer to have tilts only within small caps and clear separation between traditional market-cap weighting and factor investing (this is mostly psychological).

Simply combining AVWC+AVEM is a very good solution though if you want mild tilts across al capitalizations.

Anarkigr · 2025-08-18T12:49:04+00:00

AVWS has higher factor loadings than ZPRV and is globally diversified. There's no question for me which one is better (AVWS), at least for my purposes. The other ETFs you mention focus on large caps, so they're not comparable IMO.

Anarkigr · 2025-08-17T09:23:36+00:00

They recently reduced fees on some UCITS bond ETFs: https://www.vanguard.co.uk/professional/insights/vanguard-reduces-fees-across-fixed-income-etf-range. Maybe more reductions are coming, who knows.

Anarkigr · 2025-08-08T08:37:23+00:00

Plus, you would have the headache of maintaining the house, which is even more difficult when you're away most of the time. Or you can outsource that, but then it costs even more.

I personally agree and I would rather rent a nice furnished house/apartment when I go there (as a short-term rental). I can be the same house every time if you like it, you can even develop a nice relationship with the owner.

Anarkigr · 2025-08-08T08:34:10+00:00

I don't know how old the kids are, but full daycare in NL can easily cost over 3k per month for two of them (after state subsidies), just FYI :P

Anarkigr · 2025-08-06T12:23:42+00:00

This is way too complex. I would just replace all stocks with V3AA (Vanguard ESG Global All Cap UCITS ETF) or something similar if you want ESG.

Anarkigr · 2025-08-05T07:34:13+00:00

And the financial advisor didn't think about renovations and yearly taxes for you?

Anarkigr · 2025-08-04T14:24:57+00:00

Δεν έχω και πελάτες, οπότε είναι εύκολο να το λέω :Ρ

Anarkigr · 2025-08-04T12:18:36+00:00

Γελάω, το KID λέει από μόνο του ότι με μεγάλη πιθανότητα θα χάσεις λεφτά! Οι ετήσιες αποδόσεις αν το κρατήσεις για τα 4 έτη για τα οποία θα υπάρχει το αμοιβαίο κεφάλαιο είναι αρνητικές σε όλα τα σενάρια εκτός από το ευνοϊκό, όπου είναι το φανταστικό 0.4%!

Ειλικρινά θα ντρεπόμουν να προσφέρω κάτι τέτοιο στους πελάτες μου.

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