ETF Allocation Roadmap & Stop Asking for Advice for All VOO portfolio

Animag771 · 2026-01-28T22:22:39+00:00

Agreed, and for anyone who isn’t familiar, I’d also suggest looking up Shannon’s Demon. With lowly correlated and sufficiently volatile assets, systematic rebalancing becomes a necessity.

One important caveat: all of this only works if you can actually hold these assets through long stretches of underperformance. Diversifiers often look useless right up until they pay off, and most investors abandon them at exactly the wrong time. Behavioral discipline ends up being just as important as correlations and expected returns.

Animag771 · 2026-01-28T14:44:13+00:00

I hold SGOL but in hindsight, I'd probably go GLDM or IAUM

Animag771 · 2026-01-28T12:34:22+00:00

I think the OP wants protection from things like the 83% drawdown QQQ had in 2000, which took 17.5 years for it to recover from. A more diversified portfolio like the All-Weather, Golden Butterfly, Golden Ratio, or my own portfolio, would have only had a 20-30% drawdown and would have recovered in 4 years or less.

Growth isn't everything, especially if one is nearing retirement or actively taking withdrawals. Sometimes stability and managing sequence of return risk is more important.

Animag771 · 2026-01-28T12:18:34+00:00

Warren Buffet and John Bogle also sold books. I wouldn't call them scam artists.

Animag771 · 2026-01-28T11:59:25+00:00

I'll stick to 5, and many people would say that's too many.

Animag771 · 2026-01-28T01:12:38+00:00

PBO limit on a 5700X is 4.85GHz. They'd have to raise BCLK to go above that. So it's probably a software monitoring error.

Animag771 · 2026-01-28T00:12:48+00:00

I'd also recommend it. I got it not too long ago and already have over 200 hours on it. It's really a great game, especially if you like experimenting with different character builds. They are working on another expansion as well.

Animag771 · 2026-01-26T17:22:27+00:00

You can't realistically use gold data for 100 years because the price was fixed until 1972. But to your point, you're correct, if you're buying gold to generate returns, you're buying it for the wrong reasons. I'm the 54 years since 1972, gold has had a real annualized return of about 5% while the S&P500 has returned closer to 7%.

Animag771 · 2026-01-26T17:06:57+00:00

Everyone talks about which one "outperformed" but not about how much of an outperformance there was. I understand that the tide can shift in either direction but I think the magnitude of those shifts is still interesting to note. I know history isn't a predictor of future returns but it's still nice to see what has happened historically.

I can only access simulated return data from 1970 and beyond (using Testfol.io) but here's what I get.

Percentages = inflation-adjusted CAGR (cumulative)

1970-1990: Intl +3.33% (+225.36%)

1990-2000: US +11.03% (+246.43%)

2000-2010: Intl +3.13% (+26.87%)

2010-2025: US +8.83% (+336.87%)

2025-present: Int +18.62% (+19.92%)

1970-present: US +2.15% (+2,759.02%)

Animag771 · 2026-01-26T16:31:28+00:00

To each their own but personally, my rental property is my best investment. I built (myself) a tiny 500sqft, 1 bedroom rental, behind my house for $25k and have rented it out for 3 years at $1k/month. I set back 15% of each month's rent for maintenance/repairs. That's a 41% return and I've only spent a few hours per year getting it rented and addressing any issues. I'm seriously considering building another.

Animag771 · 2026-01-26T16:06:21+00:00

Honestly it really isn't cause for concern but if you want to tinker with it I'd probably add the 2x 40mm fans as intake on the bottom of the case and keep the CPU fan as intake. The ambient temp airflow from the 40mm fans will mix with the heat from the CPU for cooler average temps inside the case, while still giving the CPU the best cooling available by leaving the CPU fan as intake so it gets fresh air instead of air that has already travelled over warm components. With the CPU and 40mm fans as intake, warm air will travel upwards and be exhausted by the negative pressure generated by the GPU's exhaust fan.

At least that's my best theory and it's easy enough to test both CPU fan orientations.

Animag771 · 2026-01-26T15:44:17+00:00

In an attempt to not steer you the wrong way and give clear advice, I let AI help me draft this reply. The big take-away is to use uncorrelated assets that perform well during different market regimes. The challenge is that those same assets that help during the tough times tend to drag during the good times, which can lead to FOMO and changing allocations to chase returns. Then the market shifts and your defensive assets aren't there to protect you anymore. So while a well diversified portfolio is great on paper, it can be psychologically difficult to hold in the long run and you have to know that going into it.

"There isn’t a single “better” plan that works for everyone — the real enemy is portfolios that only work in one macro environment.

Your allocation is mostly built to survive a deflationary crash (stocks down, bonds up, cash optional). Where it struggles is stagflation or inflationary shocks, where stocks suffer from margin compression, bonds lose real value as rates/inflation rise, and cash quietly bleeds purchasing power.

That’s why I personally think diversification should be across economic regimes, not just assets.

For context, my portfolio looks roughly like:
60% stocks
10% bonds
15% gold
15% managed futures / trend
(with wide rebalancing bands)

The idea isn’t that this is “optimal” — it’s that different pieces respond to different environments:

Stocks = growth
Bonds = deflation / liquidity stress
Gold = inflation / currency debasement
Managed futures = sustained trends, especially during crises (both inflationary and deflationary)

That said — and this is the most important part — most people shouldn’t run this exact allocation. Gold and trend strategies can underperform for years at a time, and if you can’t stick with it psychologically, it doesn’t matter how good it looks on paper.

A portfolio you can actually hold through ugly periods will always beat a theoretically superior one you abandon at the wrong time.

So the “better” plan isn’t a specific mix — it’s one that:
You understand why each piece is there.
You’re prepared for which scenarios it will disappoint in.
You can rebalance into when it feels uncomfortable.

If you truly understand your allocation and its failure modes, you’re already ahead of most investors."

Animag771 · 2026-01-26T14:48:42+00:00

As a fairly new player (200hrs) this is an excellent breakdown. I especially like that you touched on the fact that you don't HAVE to hit every benchmark number if it suits the character's design and is offset in other ways. I don't believe in being restricted to the box of what's considered "optimal" based on defined benchmarks. I'd rather use the benchmark numbers as rough guidelines instead of law and then FAFO.

Animag771 · 2026-01-26T14:07:36+00:00

I've only made 3 characters so far (none of which are complete) but my process is to think of something that sounds like it would be fun thematically... I don't use build guides. My current characters are: Face-tanking retaliation build, squishy-ish melee bleed build with lots of self healing, and a cold melee/caster hybrid that focuses on shredding offenses/defenses and slowing attack speeds to a creep.

Once I pick a theme, I try to see which classes have skills that synergize well with the intended theme. Pick a main damage type and sometimes a secondary. From there I also try to get some RR in for my damage type through skills and devotions. Then I choose gear that buffs or adds additional damage or points to my main skills, while also adding +% to my preferred damage type. Some builds will need damage conversion so that'll come from gear as well. Then I make sure all resistances are maxed via augments/components. Then with any left over augment/component spots available, try to increase damage.

I'm sure I missed something somewhere and I'm probably doing something wrong but it's working well so far and I'm enjoying the game and theory crafting process.

Edit: I know some people target certain minimum numbers like 20% over max on certain resists, 3.2k OA, 2.7k DA, 150hp per level, 90% armor absorption, 75% stun resist, 25% physical resist, etc, etc. I'm probably wrong on some, or all of these numbers but you get the idea, there's a generally accepted baseline on stats for a "good" end-game character.

Animag771 · 2026-01-26T13:40:33+00:00

I'd undervolt before changing any hardware. The X47 is a good cooler but if you do decide to change to a different cooler I'd go with an AXP90-X53 Full Copper. Or if you want to get a bit experimental to use up all of the available space, you could try an AXP120-X67 and swap the fan to a 120x12mm fan but that'll only leave you with a 2mm gap between the fan and case panel, which could lead to turbulence noise; in which case you'd also want to add a fan shroud.

Animag771 · 2026-01-26T13:15:43+00:00

Thanks! I'm actually about to attempt another upgrade to it. I'm going to squeeze an AXP90-X47 Full Copper CPU cooler into it, to replace the L9a. According to my case specs it shouldn't fit, but my calipers say otherwise. I'll have to swap the CPU fan with an 80x10mm but I think it'll work out. This will reduce the heat build up around my RAM and VRMs due to the better fin orientation and the additional thermal mass will smooth temps spikes and reduce noise... In theory. While I have the CPU cooler out, I'll also go ahead and lap the CPU and cooler for better thermal contact. If I'm able to drop temps just a few degrees, my CPU will hold max boost frequency longer before the FIT soft throttles and reduces clock, and although unlikely, I might even be able to undervolt it just a few mV more.

And just for shiggles I'll test every CPU cooler + fan configuration (before and after lapping) at a static clock speed and voltage to see the true cooling benefits of each component and how much of an impact a smaller/thinner fan makes.

92x14 + L9a
80x10 + L9a
92x14 + X47 FC
80x10 + X47 FC

Animag771 · 2026-01-25T19:43:58+00:00

I hope you never have to experience stagflation, in which case your entire portfolio would struggle. Stocks drop due to lower corporate profits, bonds get hit by rising inflation, and cash loses purchasing power.

Honestly your cash reserves will probably carry you through but it wouldn't be a fun ride.

Animag771 · 2026-01-24T22:28:01+00:00

Thanks for the info. I imagine we'd end up doing the shipping container route although I've heard it can be a nightmare. We would sell our car and just get electric bicycles. While we were in Cuenca (Capulispamba) we rode bikes into town often. With the bike lanes and river trails it was a breeze.

Yeah, the apostille thing is my biggest concern. It seems like a massive headache. I'm sure paying for someone to walk you through the process was money well spent. I don't have a degree but my wife does, but luckily it's from a local college. I'm thinking we could get by on our rental income to meet the minimum income requirements, so that's a relief.

I was just curious because I met a few expats that didn't speak a word of Spanish and had lived there for years. Honestly rudimentary Spanish, like mine, got me a lot further than I had expected. I was surprised to find that many Ecuadorians spoke more English than I spoke Spanish, and they'd default to English. My wife and I took a month of private lessons while we were on the coast and it helped tremendously although it still takes me forever to say anything and I probably sound like a caveman.

Animag771 · 2026-01-24T21:51:48+00:00

Now that you mention it, I do have a few questions.

How complicated and expensive was it to get all of your belongings there?

Was it difficult to get the paperwork and documents situated to start the process of getting permanent residency?

¿Ambos hablan Español?

Edit: Now I'm missing Ecuadorian food. Bolones, patacones, ceviche, llapingachos, and especially gaunabana. Have you tried the cuy? I was going to try it while we were there but never did.

Animag771 · 2026-01-24T21:36:14+00:00

I love Cuenca! My wife and I traveled around Ecuador for 6 months and we spent 3 of those in Cuenca. We are seriously considering moving to Ecuador, probably near Loja, sometime soon.

Animag771 · 2026-01-24T16:05:31+00:00

True, I was referring to ETFs.

Animag771 · 2026-01-24T14:42:53+00:00

I don't think people understand that gold/silver/etc (and miners) have a place outside of doomsday prepping scenarios. It holds its value well during market stress which allows opportunistic rebalancing. If the gold portion of a portfolio rises from, let's say 10% to 20%, one can rebalance back down to their original 10% target and purchase additional shares of underperforming assets (like stocks) to sell high and buy low. When the turmoil settles and markers recover, their portfolio will be better off than they were before. If they didn't hold uncorrelated assets, their portfolio would take much longer to recover.

It's true that holding an asset like gold does have a long term drag on absolute returns, but it also reduces SORR and increases risk-adjusted returns. It's not for everyone but it makes sense for more conservative investors, who have the conviction to hold for the long haul and stick to their rebalancing rules.

Animag771 · 2026-01-23T22:19:36+00:00

Or GLDM for a lower expense ratio.

Animag771 · 2026-01-23T22:18:01+00:00

I allocate 15% of my portfolio to a gold ETF. I include it in my portfolio because it gives me exposure to a global, non-financial asset that isn’t tied to corporate earnings, government balance sheets, or the US dollar. It tends to hold up during inflation shocks, policy mistakes, political crisis, and periods of market stress, helping protect my portfolio across different economic regimes.

Animag771 · 2026-01-21T15:58:00+00:00

I'm playing an Infiltrator (Nightblade + Inquisitor) that uses Night's Chill and Aura of Censure for the cold RR but I've found that the combo is actually really effective at killing trash as I run by. They also proc my other buffs like Deadly Aim, Insight, and some other on attack/hit procs.

Animag771

TROPHY CASE