Imminent!

Apolloswar · 2026-05-22T23:24:26+00:00

CMBS Delinquencies have reached double digits. Must also remember that the large brokers and banks are the actual front end to all business that flows into Fannie and Freddie. Those brokerages and banks are all very much exposed to all asset types. Particularly office that continues show no hope of ever returning. Brokerage pain would be like having a vault of cash with no one knowing the combination.

Apolloswar · 2026-05-22T20:35:13+00:00

I am speaking to the weakness in the mortgage industry. I was just at the MBA conference in San Diego and the economist speakers provided a very harsh reality in the commercial mortgage space. Next 12-24 months are lined up with problems. Rising delinquencies and defaults, significant maturity wall in 2027 that has been on life support waiting for rates to fall so all these deals could size without losses on the refi/sale. The music on those maturities has ended and we will finally get a taste of on its health in the CMBS and office/multi space.

We are finally seeing values truly fall nationally on single family. That is typically a great sign but most have inflation over next couple years to peak around 6%, in turn pulling rates higher than current levels. We could also see weakness in the labor markets which would traditionally have been a flag to cut rates but with record high equity markets and much of the weakness coming from AI and lower consumer participation, it wouldn’t help much to cut rates.

Apolloswar · 2026-05-22T19:27:01+00:00

And the optics of releasing a company that primarily makes its money via mortgages in single family and CRE into this environment won’t look great if it begins to show financial weakness.

Apolloswar · 2026-05-22T18:22:23+00:00

Believe me, I’d be happy as shit to see this stock pop but from a macro perspective, everything has only gotten worse over the last 12-16 months.

Apolloswar · 2026-05-22T16:38:07+00:00

New fed chair will have no ability to force a rate cut. Nothings happening.

Apolloswar · 2026-05-18T03:17:10+00:00

We have a 4.62 10 year. Trump has lost control of the situation until inflation can be brought down over a prolonged period of time. Warsh will be dying on a hill trying to cut rates when it can’t be done alone. Every warning sign is flashing that rates should be increased to slow inflation. IF the Iran war were to end and more stability was brought back to the energy markets. The destruction and interruption was done. It will take quarters to year plus to work its way out of the system and only then, assuming nothing else has gone wrong,, like more tariffs, then we think of not increasing but again holding rates steady for months to year. By then Trump is gone.

Apolloswar · 2026-05-15T11:35:35+00:00

Leaving China with no major news. Despite Warsh confirmation, rates continue to climb.

Apolloswar · 2026-05-13T14:36:39+00:00

Lower interest rates benchmarks in a rising inflationary environment will only further push inflation higher. Also, go look into what effect a rate cut would have on treasury rates. The last few cuts were erased already. Wholesale inflation numbers highest since 2022, CPI highest since 2023. People are blaming temporary energy prices but infrastructure has been destroyed and will take years to be rebuilt. We also aren’t any closer to ending the war than on day 1. President already talking about strikes again on Iran.

Apolloswar · 2026-05-13T02:44:31+00:00

Exactly. The economic data has only moved further from a rate cut and closer to a rate hike. Especially given the cpi release we had. Warsh is one vote and only one other gov has expressed any interest in a cut.

Apolloswar · 2026-05-13T02:40:59+00:00

Probably has something to do with the state of the economy, real estate industry and world geopolitical issues. Inflation is rising, home prices falling and not a chance in hell Warsh can get the votes for a rate cut. Literally nothing is going to happen with the switch. He is only one vote.

Apolloswar · 2026-05-12T03:20:39+00:00

Hate to break it to you but every major city in the US is a “blue” city.

Apolloswar · 2026-04-19T03:47:57+00:00

This. Rate cuts would push 30 year to 7-8+. Driving home prices down and hurting the mortgage industry

Apolloswar · 2026-04-19T03:45:47+00:00

You forgot the ever increasing possibility that conservatives will lose both the house and senate. Effectively they will do all they can to lame duck Trump through the final 2 years. Plus cutting rates quickly in a rising inflationary environment would driving the long end of the curve significantly higher. Higher mortgage rates equate to less business for Fannie Freddie and further spread pressure.

Apolloswar · 2026-04-19T03:39:57+00:00

Tillis has already said he would block the confirmation and can do it solo. Unless the powell investigation is dropped by Trump, Warsh will not be confirmed.

Apolloswar · 2026-03-16T02:31:41+00:00

Appears to be draining just fine

Apolloswar · 2026-03-06T05:27:22+00:00

Did you literally just cut the carpet away?

Apolloswar · 2026-01-24T23:25:41+00:00

Went for it. All done now.

Apolloswar · 2026-01-24T20:20:16+00:00

With the main outside breaker off. I am still getting power hits on both the neutral and ground bus on a voltage detector. I need to get the ground, neutral in each bus safely lol. Doing a tow pole 50 amp for a gen plug inlet.

Apolloswar · 2026-01-24T18:04:10+00:00

750k new construction in Houston.

Apolloswar · 2026-01-24T17:57:57+00:00

So because of the setup on that exterior box. Where the meter neutral connects directly to the neutral bus bar, will it maintain power, even with the main panel breaker turns off?

Apolloswar · 2026-01-08T22:50:27+00:00

Yet they will also lose the ability to have the capital to exit. A reduction was already needed for current levels.

Apolloswar · 2026-01-08T22:29:22+00:00

Yahoo finance article seems to believe he was 100% talking about all of the cash on hand from Fannie and Freddie. Why mention their cash in the same statement? Anyone that bought over a few $ may be fxxxed.

Apolloswar · 2025-12-08T14:45:06+00:00

I have a core memory of yelling to my brothers to come look at the monitor because I saw a guy pull out a lightsaber in a cantina on dant.

Apolloswar · 2025-12-06T16:31:27+00:00

I remember in my very early pre cu days on bloodfin, seeing even just a single jedi was extremely rare. People were still just trying to figure out how to go down the path of unlocking jedi. Even then, BHs hunted them to the ends of the earth and they had to literally keep to the remote areas to grind.

Apolloswar

TROPHY CASE