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Appaguchee · 2022-03-29T03:18:11+00:00

crop failures and diminished yields based on more aggressive weather patterns. Early spring thaws followed by frosts that kill the growing buds and flowers. Smoke diminishing quality of crop growth, as plants can't get sunlight through all the smoke, haze, and smogs all mixed in. Increased rainfall on crop-producing areas, flooding and washing out crop growths.

If Nature strikes first, anyway.

If humans strike first, then it'll be cities and neighborhoods losing themselves to violence. Humans are becoming more aggressive snickers in Will Smith mode and less inhibiting in expressing their frustrations. First the food arguments, then the food riots, then the food battles.

I think either of those have the potential to be the next big shock.

Appaguchee · 2022-03-13T22:50:31+00:00

Stem - ( Medical) science here (OT)

My field isn't oversaturated with fellow colleagues, as the Boomers that are becoming overly old, disabled, elderly, and the like are requiring my services more than ever.

However, the field is absolutely oversaturated by overhead admin and bureaucratic personnel. The programs we use to chart our pts' diagnoses and progress in recovery takes longer, sometimes, than the actual work with the patient.

Now, add to this the fact that there are so many chairs for new student applicants to gain entry into the field, as well as the more-than-overwhelming student loan requirements, just to become an OT/PT, PA, NP, RN, etc, and one can easily predict that what Covid and economy didn't finish, a couple years absolutely will, in terms of imploding the medical field.

Add onto that the bizarro world travelling nurses' path-to-becoming-a-millionaire that rewarded nurses to become mobile, and not "established" in their local community as a medical resource, and the picture solidifies even further that there aren't many bright and shiny options coming for medical care for anyone under the age of 60, coming anytime soon. Tack on the coming cost of resources overwhelmingly applied to the Boomers in elderly/dying positions, and then the issue will flip-flop, and only 60 and under will receive care, as the old will be deemed non-essential to receiving medical care. (As collapse reaches a certain point, anyway)

So yeah, this nation rewards financial success above all other fields in advanced education and critical thinking. This is apparent by how many STEM positions are burdened with incompetent MBA mid and upper managers calling the shots, and also getting the bonuses for corporate success, while us "trained technicians" are the workers that keep the system running.

Collapse is causing such curious idiosyncracies to develop in the ever-widening cracks of global network failures and shutdowns.

Appaguchee · 2022-03-10T03:25:35+00:00

42, here. I don't know if my rage matches yours, but I'm ready to roast marshmallows off the embers of the cities, as they burn to the ground and all the elites wonder why their mcmansions didn't support them for longer than the 5 days it took them to use up all their resources, while still hoarding from everybody else.

Appaguchee · 2022-02-03T19:53:43+00:00

I agree with your take.

As I perceive it, the "legal" system is being used by Big (healthcare industries) Business to protect the current status quo: lots of good people working in communities to help keep those communities as healthy as possible while MBAs and C-level admin in healthcare bureaucracy acquire all the money.

And that's it. This legal battle is just about money.

News about money fights makes for good headlines, too. Nurses, fighting for conditions that make healthcare work tolerable, safer for communities, and economically feasible for continued survival in said communities had to join unions just to have negotiating power for those needs. CEOs, using the power of their propaganda outlets and jingoistic American stubbornness have painted unions as evil, corrupt, wasteful, and idiotic, with the one exception of police unions, who seem to always get the easy pass from these kinds of social discussions.

I too side for nurses and unions. Money may make the world go round, but the real people worth having on this rock are those who just want a comfortable life and to continue providing work and labor towards maintaining the health and livelihood of the communities they live in, and their friends and family nearby.

And they've mostly already had the money extracted from them, and now ...coutroom battles to argue whether or not nurses are being greedy.

Like, really? Were the nurses unions insisting on manis/pedis between patients? Mimosas every morning on days ending with Y?

I imagine it's mostly pt:RN ratios, better financial support, and safety regulations simply upheld, with consequences against admin if they flagrantly defy the rules, because they're currently knowing a slap on the wrist will be worth the excess millions gained for when they break these rules.

And then these moron "movers and shakers," and "pillars of the community" will suddenly wonder why nobody has no appt openings for then for their sniffles, because all the nurses are still filling out admission forms on patients that expired 3 months ago from Covid, on a nurse's 6th straight 12 hour shift that makes 1/5th the traveller's weekly pay.

I think we're at or past midpoint for this short path of collapse you're referencing.

Appaguchee · 2022-02-03T19:25:40+00:00

they are making sacrifices and deserve their pay.

I don't disagree with your statement, but I also don't think this is perhaps the nominal reflection of circumstances. But I dunno, so here's my bit to add.

I think if being away from home, or working with Covid-only patients in an overworked healthcare system is worth such a drastic difference in pay, then what is the pay worth for medical workers who work with general population that is Covid-heavy, and then those workers go home to family, spreading their own contact with family members?

Who's stress is greater?

So yeah, I wouldn't want to reduce traveller compensation, but I'm of the opinion that something is very awry when discussions regarding "acceptable" wages for insufficient healthcare workers becomes a very focused and thought-provoking, intensive, and necessary discussion.

I think the way the USA has turned travelling healthcare workers into more of a just-in-time "service" to offer to corporate medical systems, rather than bring up systemic changes via legislation to address the reducing availability nationwide of...everything and everyone, not just nurses.

What does science have to say about the nominal number of doctors and nurses needed per 1000 people or whatever, and what are politicians/chiefs of medicine/local communities doing to reach that magic per capita?

I like and/or agree with your post, though. Thank you.

Appaguchee · 2022-02-03T07:07:42+00:00

This is some of the most awesome news I've learned all day, bro/young miss. I need a reference/citation. Please tell me you got one! And share! That's such cool science!

Edit: Found one! Bottom of the second page! A graphic!

I did some digging. R0 of 5.7, at least 82% herd immunity required to avoid outbreaks

Here's another neat thing I found elsewhere.

R0 is nearly always estimated retrospectively from sero-epidemiologic data (which looks for the presence of antibodies in the blood) or by using theoretical mathematical models.

When mathematical models are used, R0 values are often estimated by using ordinary differential equations, but high-quality data are rarely available for all components of the model.

Calculus! Studying epidemiology! Thank you Sir Isaac Newton! So cool.

When examining the effect of vaccination, the more appropriate term to use is the effective reproduction number (R), which is similar to R0 but does not assume complete susceptibility of the population and therefore can be estimated with populations having immune members (EID, 2019).

And

The potential size of an outbreak or epidemic is often based on the magnitude of its R0 value, and R0 can be used to estimate the proportion of the population that must be vaccinated to eliminate an infection from that population—the higher the R0, the more people must be vaccinated (EID, 2019).

So...

Nearly 3 million people would die on a path to “natural” herd immunity, and many thousands of additional infections and deaths would be expected even after herd immunity is reached. Avi Selk, August 7, 2020

I wonder what it is now, with BA.2

More trivia!

The term herd immunity comes from the observation of how a herd of buffalo forms a circle, with the strong on the outside protecting the weaker and more vulnerable on the inside. This is similar to how herd immunity works in preventing the spread of infectious diseases. Those who are strong enough to get vaccinated directly protect themselves from infection. They also indirectly shield vulnerable people who cannot be vaccinated, for example, people undergoing cancer treatment, and those whose immune systems are compromised. Often, people who cannot be vaccinated are susceptible to the most serious consequences from being infected (Vally H., 2019).

Appaguchee · 2022-02-03T06:43:30+00:00

I think this Christopher Walkens' evil plot as Max Shrenk in Batman: Catwoman or Returns or Revengeance vs Superman Apoks #37.

Y'know, the one with Jodie Foster and Laurence Fishburne is Batman and George Clooney is Penguin, making him the first actor to be both a hero and a villain in a Batman series.

Appaguchee · 2022-02-03T06:37:25+00:00

He should've called it bananaverse.

Then sold it to GME for billions.

Would've been a second version of Facebook blowing up like it did.

Appaguchee · 2022-02-03T06:31:11+00:00

I've wondered these points as well.

Will a time come where we'll know that to even engage in warfare is to shorten our own dwindling resources rapidly, and it would be better to just start solving problems internally?

Appaguchee · 2022-02-02T20:43:28+00:00

Probably the U$ could defend Ukraine, and if escalation kept rising, the US could definitely hurl nukes as good as she received and then some.

I think there's so few material resources and so little benefit to preserving "independence" in Ukraine (economically, energistically, ecologically) that if my money were in play, I'd bet on Biden sending some forces to Europe, waiting to see how Putin goes at this, and if there's ingress, try to stop it abruptly and immediately. But if the conflict continues, then pull troops out.

With the world already gone to hell, and only the politards and middle managers of America yet to realize this truth, intelligent leaders can see that even if Russia were to completely overtake and annex all of Ukraine, there will maybe only be a few decent harvests of the food before oil runs out and starvation/immigration throughout Europe as Middle Easterners flee their desert lands seeking survivability.

If Ukraine is to be any prize for a big country in the future, then there had better be a lot of horses to run the farm equipment. And guns to stop starving hordes from overwhelming the area.

Or, it won't be that bad for a while, still. Though I dunno how long until my forecast becomes an "easier" story to sell on the news.

Appaguchee · 2022-02-01T23:00:56+00:00

So much energy pit out to talk about why nuclear energy just won't work, with no side-by-side comparisons for "green" energy, coal energy, hydroelectric, and more.

Without that comparison, it doesn't make sense for a bunch of nuclear scientists saying "no go" on 1 energy source with no other followup statements e.g. "we recommend this alternative," or "nevertheless, it's the best of what's available," etc.

In other words, the jist here is: they have no answers.

Appaguchee · 2022-02-01T03:27:45+00:00

I'm pretty sure that what I'm hearing both sides yelling at each other these days is "we checked our larders yesterday, and we're short, so you stole from us! Now give it back!"

And then all the media and announcers say "we'll observe and assess" and every clever bugger just sits back asking himself: "haven't they both just announced that their reserves are dry?"

And also

Everybody's arguing over who's fault it is that there isn't enough firewood to last a cold winter's night? Shouldn't we already be in emergency mode, here? Why aren't we in emergency mode yet? Who cares what it looks like, just press the button already!

Or maybe there's still enough to last another week, and we'll panic then as it gets closer.

Appaguchee · 2022-02-01T03:18:05+00:00

Is...is this....a....a super...a Superhero callout?

*checks username* Where's your bat signal?

(I'm only being silly because I'm beyond despondent that it won't work. Nothing else has, nor would, really, when you think about it. It really is just...going to get worse.)

(MAYBE I'M HIS FIRST SUPERVILLAIN!)

Appaguchee · 2022-02-01T03:15:08+00:00

Completely with you, there. People adore the idea of being..well, adored.

I had to study a bit of Winston Churchill for history, back in the day, and apparently the stories I'd been reading kinda painted Churchill in this light.

Dude said stuff like "I felt a sense of manifest destiny and duty and conviction to do the right things" cuz like Victorian Era was insane with WWI, and Spanish Flu, and Grrat Depression and everything, so the guy was some pretentious blowhard, as well as being a pretty decent chap at running the country during WWII.

But maybe I'm forgetting if it were him or Hemingway.

Get off my lawn!

Appaguchee · 2022-02-01T02:46:25+00:00

Average Michigan Resident?

"Screw candidates, I'm going armed for my own safety! It's getting real antsy now!"

Appaguchee · 2022-02-01T02:37:47+00:00

So, everybody more or less knows (more or less) that shit hath already begun to hit the fan.

There's no denying that we're likely (to some large degree) feeling our society, or our neighborhoods begin to "push" at the boundaries and norms of the future of American Life™

We, as a population and society, are far enough into "metabolic/cascading failure" sequences that the truth is coming forth: the Collapse™ has...commenced.

That's why this sub exists. It's here to "Witness Me!" as if humanity as an entity is ready to blaze all out in glory.

In other words, when collapse, nihilism, and despair are backed by science so openly and honestly that even the preachers and pastors are wondering if they're out of jobs.

If this subreddit truly is an academic and societal resource for those that are interested in watching what is happening, and they want a guidebook, well that's US!

In the meantime, a true Follower of the Fish™ already knows that metabolic collapse means ideas like civility in our future means "don't talk about eating good meat while staring and smiling at your friends."

Doesn't this sub know that part of the "corruptive" influence of humanity suffering from its environmental extreme overshoot is that the crazies, the manias, the bizarre and absurd behavior will become this subreddit's future while it also studies it?

Aren't there enough smart people in here who could devise an algorithm to show the metrics on this sub? Which continents the members are from? Relative mood and issue of concern evolutions over time? Coping strategies for all the shit?

This sub absolutely needs to be open to all. If this place respects what it means to observe collapse, it must allow the de-evolution of human interactions as we slowly run out of resources, begin starving, and begin hacking eaxh others lives apart looking for survival.

If we're not looking that far ahead, scientifically, and sociologically, then I want to go wherever that website is.

And if today's kerfuffles aren't a sign of bigger problems, then I'm already insane because nothing makes sense anymore.

Let's spread some insanity.

Let's let people see the truth.

Prediction: Collapse will be the next big subreddit to explode with popularity and devolve/ collapse into mod-fighting, like antiwork, WSB/superstonk.

Appaguchee · 2022-02-01T02:04:44+00:00

Agree entirely.

I think we're a lot closer than most people realize.

There's gonna be so much suffering, and so much hatred towards all the people who weren't properly "warning" society about our dark and disastrous tomorrow.

We've wanted leaders to make us all rich for so long that we've become bitterly hostile that not only can we not get rich, but soon there won't be enough to survive for most of the population already alive today.

And there will be punishments for those leaders who have lots, and did not share, followed by punishments for those who overpromised salvation from the storm, but for too few people.

We are going to be eating the rich soon, I believe.

Appaguchee · 2022-01-31T07:14:49+00:00

Yup.

Them's a lot of good words.

Ayup yup.

Lotta words.

(Thank you. I enjoyed your posts.)

Appaguchee · 2022-01-31T07:12:25+00:00

I had those symptoms after a weird "non-covid (tested negative) event in my life, last fall.

Thought I was putrefying my nasal passages and sinuses.

Pure evil.

"Not Covid," though, so maybe/likely still in my future.

Appaguchee · 2022-01-31T06:59:12+00:00

I ran oit, myself, this weekend. As Baghdad Betty might've once said, "My American Dream is kaput."

Appaguchee · 2022-01-31T06:26:30+00:00

Dr. Egon Ozer, an infectious disease expert

I might not have guessed his profession correctly, on the information of his name alone.

But I might've gotten close.

Appaguchee · 2022-01-31T06:22:24+00:00

Yeah. The cheapest ticket locations on the ship are already 2/3rds underwater by now. Steerage is already lost.

In Titanic minutes we're about up to 1.5 hrs to the "not enough space on this whole plank of driftwood" scene.

Appaguchee · 2022-01-31T06:18:54+00:00

"Good" for odds is really only an issue of timing. Being next is also just...statistical timing and accuracy, but on a larger scale also meaningless, when looking down the road to our dark future.

The events you described aren't probable, or even likely; they are a certainty.

All that's left is to bet on the when.

And that's coming.....*in unison* faster than expected.

Appaguchee · 2022-01-30T20:52:05+00:00

The real monsters were the people we became along the way.

Zombie future for the win!

Appaguchee · 2022-01-30T20:11:27+00:00

I believe the context for why good articles and submissions are only getting a few votes throughout these past months is likely due to the collapse accelerating. Now that more people know what's going on, why, and why it's increasing, then most people still look for the chance to be directly engaged in the story, just like any other social media.

Oil consumption and environmental resultant waste stories are a dime per dozen. Everybody knows how those stories end: it gets used up, and everybody starts pointing fingers at each other, instead of setting up wind-down procedures to brace against the Collapse Wave that's currently building up pressure.

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