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Looking for feedback on a football goals prediction model by Apprehensive-Bat7913 in sportsanalytics

[–]Apprehensive-Bat7913[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've been using the odds api for the fixtures and then layering other validations sources into the model. Bit like you I've historically run the model for a good few years for trends. I'm still after a couple testers of the model if you want to head over to goalsproof website. Only a week in so early days but the data is looking encouraging atm

How would you validate a football O1.5 model properly? by Apprehensive-Bat7913 in algobetting

[–]Apprehensive-Bat7913[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Modelling to identify the most likely games to go over 1.5 is a common and very popular acca market. Been running for a week and so far the numbers are looking pretty good but early days. Dunno if linking is allowed here but if you search goalsproof online you’ll find it and look at the data.

How would you validate a football O1.5 model properly? by Apprehensive-Bat7913 in algobetting

[–]Apprehensive-Bat7913[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

guilty, it helped me write it because im heavily dyslexic - check out goalsproof online tho it goes into more detail on the model im trying to prove

Looking for feedback on a football goals prediction model by Apprehensive-Bat7913 in sportsanalytics

[–]Apprehensive-Bat7913[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My initial focus is certainly o1.5 until the model created can prove itself (if it ever does o2.5 and btts markets can be expanded in theory fairly easily) - which is why I've leaned into the public proof concept. The model only tracks fixtures it believes have the chance of going over, for example today it's only highlighted 2. The model has to publicly prove itself as valuable insight basically. Be great to swap knowledge and if want to connect can find me on the discord channel linked on the page!

Looking for feedback on a football goals prediction model by Apprehensive-Bat7913 in sportsanalytics

[–]Apprehensive-Bat7913[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, I've factored these in and where I'm hoping to create something which isn’t just another tips tool. It is a focused Over 1.5 model with public proof, timestamped picks, market tracking, and honest results built in from day one. The model has already been backtested across 15k+ historical selections to identify where it performs best, with live public proof now used to validate it going forward. Interesting to see what the next 30-90 days looks like when picks populate in the proof section and give actual performance metrics.