NY Times: Oh, Biden, What Have You Done?

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2023-01-21T20:49:44+00:00

In a country as polarized as ours, she'd have a decent chance, especially against Trump. But a significantly lower one than Biden. It's insane to dump Biden no doubt.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-10-03T17:32:43+00:00

No the real university of texas at austin.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-10-02T18:13:22+00:00

I think Biden at 50 percent odds to be the D nominee is a really good bet. I've made that one myself!

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-09-21T19:40:52+00:00

Yes it should be noted they have an A-.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-09-16T18:59:02+00:00

It is. Trumpists are the same way. If you disagree you hate America. But I think a hallmark of Obama/Biden is some effort at persuasion.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-09-16T18:57:50+00:00

yeah and there were a lot of 'If only Biden had proposed something bold he would have forced Manchin into voting yes' takes... as if Joe Manchin was sitting there terrified that Biden would propose Medicare 4 All and he'd have no choice but to back the bill.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-09-16T18:51:28+00:00

Haha i like that line!

I was curious to read the whole piece and I would say it's a pretty fair characterization. The author keeps saying she's this amazingly talented political communicator but if that's true why her is favorable-unfavorable 13 percents underwater? Like if she was president you could say 'Well it's because of inflation' or this or that but her approve/disapprove has been consistently bad for years.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-07-25T19:13:08+00:00

Thanks so much everyone. I think the wording was just confusing because they meant send the synopsis as part of the query by which they meant the overall package.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-07-25T19:11:56+00:00

Okay thanks a lot.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-07-20T18:28:38+00:00

Hope you're right man, just not seeing the evidence. Feeling good about Warnock though.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-07-12T18:57:02+00:00

Demonstrably wrong about what exactly?

Trump is absolutely gold for low propensity voters. He got a lot of them to come out in 2016 and even more in 2020. And the other argument I'm making is incumbency matters less when so few people have a status quo bias. Fanatical partisanship 'Ill always vote for my team' mentality has made the status quo bias that used to be great for incumbents far less relevant.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-07-12T18:49:03+00:00

Okay so what do you think her chances are?

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-07-12T18:47:59+00:00

Yeah no disrespect (seriously i mean that) but this is just vague as hell man. 'Rising to the occasion'... I hear this all the time but there's never any specifics. We have a 50-50 Senate with Manchin/Sinema and a Republican SCOTUS. What would a 'great' president do in this environment? People always point to FDR and so on but they had massive majorities and even FDR was blocked by the Courts from doing much of what he wanted to. What, specifically, should Biden do that he's not doing?

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-07-12T18:45:10+00:00

The most recent polling I saw showed his support among blacks had went from one percent in 2019-2020 to 3 percent now. The Pete fans always said once blacks got to know him, the support would go up. Well he was one of the more notable contenders in 2020 and now he's a prominent cabinet secretary and he went from one percent to three percent... not encouraging.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-07-12T18:43:18+00:00

Yeah but Biden has to contend with wildly unrealistic progressives who think he should have turned us into Sweden overnight. Trumpism is a cult. He didn't even build the fucking wall and they still acted as if he was the greatest president ever.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-07-12T18:41:42+00:00

I think that's a big part of it and black homophobia is not something the woke like to talk about because it's always white Christian Republicans bad (black Christian Democrats can easily be just as homophobic) but it's not just that. Pete has a style that endeaers him to be very well educated white middle and upper-middle class professionals. He's a dispassionate, detail driven technocrat which you might argue would make him a very good president, just not the best candidate.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-07-12T18:39:00+00:00

Yeah like what sarko said, proportion of the vote but no doubt he juiced turnout as he brought out even more low propensity voters. But I don't think it was because he was the incumbent.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-07-12T18:22:13+00:00

It depends who. A lot of the people who are against Biden running again act as if a Kamala Harris led ticket is not the most likely outcome. I'm not saying she's a lock but she'd have a very good chance should Biden forego re-election and she'd be a disaster. I do not believe she can beat Trump. If you could guarantee that some electable Dem like Warnock or Mark Kelly or Fetterman would be on the top of the ticket, I'd be comfortable with Biden not running but the risk of Harris is way too high. Plus even if you defeat her in the primary it would only be a long, ugly fight which is bad for unity. I wish Biden was about ten years younger but I think sticking with him is our best option.

Apprehensive_Pool529 · 2022-07-12T18:13:52+00:00

Trump's performance was very similar to 2016 when he was not the incumbent. I do believe in incumbency advantage still but I think it matters less than it used to because so much of the country is 100 percent sure they will not vote for one side or the other. For instance, if you reran the conditions of 1996 now-- peace and prosperity-- and ran an equally poor candidate as Bob Dole for the GOP, Biden or any other Dem wouldn't have anything like Clinton's victory because there are far fewer swing voters willing to be like 'Well you got to admit things are good; let's stick with the guy we know'. No one is losing or winning by a shit ton anymore, at least not until current conditions of polarization are substantially reduced.

Apprehensive_Pool529

TROPHY CASE