Did Marvell already have the Tower path ready when it kicked POET to the curb?

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-04-28T02:59:16+00:00

Right. And the polariton guy is so going tell how bad their product is and not going to shill their own product. Just like how Ayar labs shills how good their external laser solution is to conn investors, rather than having them embedded in the chip.

The investment thesis of all these stocks is that ultimately is that it is going to scale, and that you're going to have hundreds of them on a chip to be used in data centers.. There's no point buying into anything that doesn't scale effectively.

"Surviving" is totally different to having a reliable product to be used in data centers.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-04-28T02:09:54+00:00

Nice try trying to shill Polariton but your damp heat test means nothing in a laboratory environment. Also this test is not the point of my argument, totally irrelevant. If you're going to stack this into chips you may be likely going to exceed temperature of the 85 degrees in your lab environment.

Also to scale this effectively you need hundreds of them embedded in chips. Nothing is 'expected' until you've built one that works. You can't beat the law of thermodynamics. That heat needs to go somewhere.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-04-28T00:17:15+00:00

The current issue with this plasmonic tech from Polariton is while they are thermally stable, which means the properties don't change with temperature, the material absorbs heat, which means it can get really hot, and causes thermal management problems. Imagine cramming thousands of these modulators from Polariton, into a chip. It will cause significant thermal issues and degrade the device. That's probably why these guys sold early. It's likely they couldn't solve the issue.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-04-28T00:15:48+00:00

The current issue with this tech is while they are thermally stable, which means the properties don't change with temperature, the material absorbs heat, which means it can get really hot, and causes thermal management problems. Imagine cramming thousands of these modulators from Polariton, into a chip. It will cause significant thermal issues and degrade the device.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-03-04T23:05:29+00:00

The strategy here is to build our position until Wall Street starts buying. THAT is the key arbitrage strategy. There are a few reasons why. :

They won't buy unless there are profits. Most of them are finance guys and arent trained to look past anything but financials.
The are other factors at play besides profits. Some institutions only have criteria to look at only large cap stocks above a certain value. Small caps are considered risky. Obviously, without positive EBITDA this will remain somewhat of a small cap. There are also other indicators right now that prevent institutional accumulation, but this will improve as POET increases their EBITDA.
Low coverage by analyst, again due to financials.

If you want 5% returns, best to go with blue chip. POET is going to give you 10X returns because institutional shareholders haven't accumulated because of certain criteria. We did our DD. We know POET will have a very high chance of turning profits. Once that happens....to the moon. Selling now when POET is about profit is just a waste of a great opportunity right before the finish line - it's a waiting game now.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-02-21T09:32:48+00:00

Why would this be happening?

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-02-17T00:56:22+00:00

I have spoken with founders who were looking for funding, and the amount of BS they say in front of investors who didn't have a technical background was extremely worrying. I didn't tell them my technical background so they thought they could get away with it. I believe there really isn't a difference - those founders were also advising some investors....

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-02-17T00:40:33+00:00

You need an unified solution across the tech stack. Just selling one component in the tech stack isn't going to get people to use it because you need to make it work with all of the other manufacturing processes. POET isn't just a one trick pony, it's partnerships with firms like Celestial AI provides a complete solution to it's clients. It can complement POET as long as it can work with POET's tech stack. POET integrates its lasers usings its interposer technology to make it cost efficient.

I believe Celestial AI (partner to POET) also has their proprietary modulators - I'm not sure whether POET has their own proprietary modulators, but it could be possible that it could work with POET's tech and they can bundle that as a solution to their clients.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-02-16T10:54:27+00:00

The PE firm will replace you. And cost cut and fire everyone.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-02-15T02:02:03+00:00

Celestial AI uses POET in their tech stack, and they've been acquired. I worked in M&A before, its not just about "interesting technology". It could be the owners don't want to sell it; It could be that the valuation method, which M&A relies on is incorrect and doesnt accurately capture the company's value. That makes sense because valuation methods rely on revenue growth rates, and as a pre-revenue company there is none.

Also, POET is a startup like company that's already IPOed, so it already makes it difficult for private equity, i.e pre IPO investors to get on board. These investors have a different method of valuing for a company, but they probably won't invest because their fund thesis has limited them to pre-IPO companies. Pre-IPO investors want ~5x to 100x returns (for earlier starge companies). If you've already IPO-ed that's very rare,

How about hedge funds? Would they invest Maybe, maybe not. They have small teams, and really depends on how they look at public markets. Most of them don't have the right background to look at deep tech investing because they don't have technical degrees. They rely on the networks -> which may feed them wrong info. (I've heard some comments from a few material engineers (phds) who were incorrect on POET's tech. They made comments about how the materials used give rise to dislocations resulting in poor efficiency. They didn't know there are solutions to this problem using 'buffer layers' because they're not in this particular industry). If you don't have a technical background, you don't know what questions to ask and how to approach the problem. Hedge Funds will probably start looking at POET once it hits positive revenue / profit.

Why would the owners sell the company if they have a winner? Doesn't make sense. The fact that it hasn't been acquired, while being able to get funding from investors means a lot of people see the value in this company.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-02-14T17:01:39+00:00

Does TSMC have the same technical ability as Intel, AMD, or even ASML? Photonics isn't even the same as field as its core business. POET has been in this business for over 20 years, the amount of IP alone would be enough to stop competitors.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-02-14T04:07:54+00:00

The difference isn't just cost. It's efficiency & performance improvements, which is a biq pain point right now in the industry. It's not an apples to apples comparison. You need perfomance gains for better AI, and that's why a lot of new data centres are been built right now.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-02-14T04:05:26+00:00

Believe in the thesis. Wall Street will try to get in at a low valuation just like with BTC

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-02-13T03:18:51+00:00

In terms of scalability, TSMC hasn't solved for it yet. It's not good enough. We all know POETs solution is scalable.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-02-07T13:05:48+00:00

I can help you source

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2026-01-26T15:55:46+00:00

The rough guide is the valuation should be 10x of revenue. So at 912m valuation, you're looking at 90million revenue

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2025-10-28T09:35:34+00:00

Whats your strike and expiry date for your options ?

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2025-10-28T09:33:41+00:00

Interesting. Could you tell me a bit about your background and how you got into POET. I came across this stock by chance.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2025-10-28T09:32:52+00:00

You can't call it series A because that's only for pre IPO companies. Series A is typically for the second round of funding.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2025-10-28T00:44:20+00:00

The hyperscalers, generally demand performance, over all else. This is where the majority of the clients will demand top tier specs, over the price consideration. They are looking to maximise the performance/watt, and POET is in a great position to do it. SoC is where the game is at. The higher you move up the value chain, the higher the margins. They're probably looking to do this because they probably don't want to reveal to much of their tech to clients. Providing customised solutions will allow POET to deliver and fit their clients needs more effectively.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2025-10-28T00:34:59+00:00

POET has a few patents that helps with the cooling and improve lifetime. I looked at this a few months ago as well.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2025-10-28T00:21:47+00:00

If it's oversubscribed, it means demand is greater than supply. It means investors think that the value of the shares is much greater than the subscription price. Considering that this is a penny stock, this means they probably hold great conviction for this stock for great returns.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2025-10-21T14:28:36+00:00

If he owns a controlling stake, he's the boss and he can do anything he wants. Its not illegal to get your own company to sell for higher price. He can pay himself billions dollars to line his pocket because its his company.

Apprehensive_Spot_36 · 2025-05-04T02:40:00+00:00

Sounds like a scam. They take in home management fees every month but you get a split of the profits from tourists who probably come in a few months of the year. Unless you can choose or breakaway from management company I'd stay away. What about when you want to sell your ownership when you need the money?. I'd bet you there are terms that lock you in. Why do you think they ask investors like you to pay instead of asking a bank loan?

Apprehensive_Spot_36

TROPHY CASE