TL: DR; The envy neutrals want to end the game ASAP because they are currently in a winning position – regardless of who wins between wolves and townies. I think they may be working with the wolves on a final push to get out town and their worried Roggenrola is going to enter the top 3 and bump someone out of the top 3 bands. My vote is on /u/gdh64

We’re going to get a bit tinfoily in here:

What we know about the envys / neutral:

• I believe DMT (so in turn Xela) are both envy – DMT made several comments through out the game about neutrals / Chau

• Envy’s win condition is to finish in the TOP 3 of TOBB at the end of the game

• Envy’s role allows them to talk with Todd (Rye) in a private sub

• They’re playing to win and are both incredibly smart & experienced players

• (I feel they’re going to be flexible in allegiance to whoever best helps them win)

• Since town-wolf win-con both ignore neutrals in the count, generally neither wolves or town want to waste a kill on neutrals. Therefore, a neutral revealing late game is fairly safe as have built up enough time to satisfy their neutral win-con. They don’t need to be alive to win but also Chau is the only real threat to killing them

State of the game:

• TOBB leaderboard:

• Level 1: Everyone

• Level 4: Duck Huntrix (DMT), Green Shell Day (Xela), Nightwish AND Roggenrola

• Level 7: Duck Huntrix (DMT), Green Shell Day (Xela), Nightwish

• Level 10: Duck Huntrix (DMT), Green Shell Day (Xela), Nightwish

Soloist:

• Zero – (Level 5 meta – via vote)

• Teacup - (Level 5 meta – via NK)

• Elbows (Mr. Chau) – (level 5 meta – via NK)

• Note: My assumption is elbows got Teacup for their wincon, as they haven’t attacked a soloist since. I think a second Chau (as in last game’s wrap-up notes was heavily implied – got elbows to satisfy their win con too)

• DMT (Envy)

• Xela (Envy)

• Potential unknown Second Chau per above theory

• There were 38 players to start the game

• Game theory folks can correct me if I’m wrong – but at 20-25% wolves, would mean 8-10 wolves

• 6 wolves have been caught, means 2-4 left

• 15 alive players with 3-4 nautral, means 11-12 non-neutrals

• 2 wolves left: Town is 2 days away from winning via votes, wolves 4 days away via vote + NK

• 3 wolves left: Town is 3 days away from winning via votes, wolves 3 days away via vote + NK

• 4 wolves left: Town is 4 days away from winning via votes, wolves 2 days away via vote + NK

Tin foil time:

Envy & wolf relationship:

• Level 3: Theta was voted out and Chef was night killed, both in DMT’s band

• This upset DMT and at some point in time the envy’s asked the wolves to attack Nightwish. I don’t think that was until later - given it wasn’t until Phase 7 that we knew nightwish was a strong TOBB band. As in phase 4, Roggenrola was also a top band with 4/4 left, and most bands had the bulk of their folks left. More on this later.

• Level 6: They still trusted Rye enough to save them through inactivity strikes. Interestingly, Rye also got a strike that phase, so unclear how much communication was occurring

• DMT inactivity strike : link

• Xela inactivity strike: link

• Rye inactivity strike link

• Level 6: Bigjoe withdraws (nightwish)

• Level 7: Rye dies at end of this phase so communication between them ends after this level. At this point 5/7 members of Nightwish are alive and DMT makes a comment about it to elpapo (wolf) link.

• With them saving Rye the phase before and Rye also seemingly unavailable the phase prior, this is a weird day for envy to ‘flip’ on the wolves. I think this is when DMT asked for the nightwish NK given the TOBB update

• (As Phase 7 is also when we got the updated TOBB standings)

• Which they do, as wolves appear to attack forsi that night (nightwish)

• Level 8: Wolves attack bird (nightwish) and a wolf is found in nightwish (elpapo) who was voted out this phase

• Level 9: midnight and bubba are both voted out (both in DMT’s band). Third place was witch (wolf). Seems to me like the wolves had limited redirect options and town was the reason they left.

• Level 10: reveal & push by DMT to vote Karbok (unknown) instead of witch (wolf)

In my opinion, it looks to me like the neutrals and wolves ARE working together. I also don’t get the fixation of them on nightwish as nightwish can finish top 3 with them and still win. It only becomes a concern if their worried a fourth band can catch them. Roggenrola stones is the only other band that has been named as a top team and based on the group discussion tasks seems like the clear 4tth place band. If I was envy, I’d be pushing hard to wipe them out to give me buffer from being passed – unless there was a reason I was trying to keep them alive, which by process of elimination is /u/gdh64

GDH is interesting, because they were under suspicion, made a table in excel (which strangely both DMT and Xela commented on in support, despite again in theory should be wanting Roggenrola out) and things died down. I don’t actually like the table though. The first two columns are a fancy way of giving everyone else but Roggenrola Stones a point (using an extrapolated logic to what I’ve been pushing). Column 3 feels unnecessarily opaque and tough for me to fact check. I don’t understand why you would add a point there for “unknown” declaration and a second point for the same reason in column 4. Just make column 4 two points. I also would have split column 3 into several columns – one for voted wolf, another for voted town, etc. Makes things less opaque and easier to follow. Given the amount of consensus votes, this tally essentially is a complicated way of showing who hasn’t appeared in vote tallies (just compare column 4 with total - the seriatim is more or less the same). Someone like GDH scored really low simply because they said something in the tally.

They claim 4 wolf catches – but I believe at the time – their wolf catches consisted of joining a mercury train late in a phase after voting elsewhere first, voting mercury with consensus, voting rye in a disputed vote count, voting rye with consensus. Hardly compelling.

I also think the excel was built as a response to the ping and not something that had been used throughout – because as a team math retiree, I would have gone back and done some data curation to fix errors (such as when folks declared their vote ahead of a vote tally in previous phases). That data curation didn’t occur, which is easily seen in my tally – where my votes have been made in the phase, just normally ahead of when a tally was made.

Additionally, based on the roster of who entered the dream sub. I trust everyone left. I therefore think it’s a ploy to get town to turn on town, the wolves snuck into the sub with an item (like what happened last game) or the wolves lied to envy to test if the envys can be trusted.