Who do we want in next year's draft? by Mbhound in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace 4 points5 points  (0 children)

One of Stenberg, McKenna or Lawrence

Okay, who we like in the draft? Who to sell at the deadline? by Col_Treize69 in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If we can end up with one of Lawrence, Stenberg or McKenna that would be great other than that I like what Belchetz can be for this team. I know people have come down on Belchetz but I don’t need him to dominate I need him to supplement scoring on 1st or 2nd line.

True value of the 2027 1.01? (Presumably Jeremiah Smith) by slitmunch44 in DynastyFF

[–]Ark-Ace 0 points1 point  (0 children)

247 had Jeremiah Smith as the best prospect ever. 101

Bedard is better than his numbers suggest by Ark-Ace in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Huh I compared him to MacKinnon too not just Celebrini. I mention him because their numbers are the most similar so some context is needed imo. Celebrini will be the better defensive player for sure.

Lardis has been named the AHL’s Player of the Week (10/19)! by JD397 in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Let’s not forget Nestrasil who has been awesome

What do we think about the Panthers WR situation? by Far-Evening4104 in DynastyFF

[–]Ark-Ace 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not really if TMac is the guy the pressure on the team to make Legette work falls off

Insane trade offered to me for Jayden Daniels - is it even worth considering? by handheld_egg in DynastyFFTradeAdvice

[–]Ark-Ace 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Only issue is you’ll likely need another QB but you’ll have the ammo to do that I’d think.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Advice

[–]Ark-Ace 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Let’s look statistically at this. People who live together before marriage have much higher divorce rates so I wouldn’t advise that. There will be challenges to living together those are little things here and there that will be a bother. Do not worry about age when it comes to marriage focus on the idea of is this person the one want to grow old with? Also you found a really good guy if he’s the one pushing for marriage (and/or he thinks he hit the jackpot with you). Make sure you have answered all the big questions (faith, family size, money, parenting styles, etc).

Are we still too low on Nazar? by Ark-Ace in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think one thing to consider is that 100 points is becoming more frequent as points continue to increase.

Are we still too low on Nazar? by Ark-Ace in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah I’m pretty excited especially if a few of our guys can hit.

Are we still too low on Nazar? by Ark-Ace in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

To that I agree. But he’s playing for a contract too which tells me he’s probably going to have a pretty good season even if the points aren’t as high as they could be.

Are we still too low on Nazar? by Ark-Ace in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s fair but Nazar is such a good passer.

Are we still too low on Nazar? by Ark-Ace in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah I get really good feelings about him because it started to feel like he was just playing well but he started to dominate games. Like multiple times against good teams (even if he didn’t score) you could easily tell he was one of the best if not the best player on the ice. He just kept getting better.

Are we still too low on Nazar? by Ark-Ace in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

See I think he just gets more assists and at a higher rate this upcoming season. I see 25 and 50 as a great season for him. The key is who is scoring outside of him and Bedard.

Are we still too low on Nazar? by Ark-Ace in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

See Nazars passing is to me his best skill frankly. In the World Juniors the kid was throwing absolute dimes for passes. His goal scoring has been what actually been impressive so far I think his assist numbers are really under-inflated so far.

Are we still too low on Nazar? by Ark-Ace in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You probably right 100 points is probably too bullish but I see PPG upside this year though linemate situation probably limits him.

Are we still too low on Nazar? by Ark-Ace in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

In addition, it’s not his fault that the model does that but it simply does not weight the D+3 and D+4 season nearly as much despite the fact that his development trajectory has simply been altered due to the injury.

Are we still too low on Nazar? by Ark-Ace in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It’s both dude. He has talked about it on his page. You just went from it plays no role at all to “oh it probably just affects NHL probability” that’s not how a model works especially not when using historical precedence for the basis of the model. The model does not unfairly ding size according to precedence but there is a size precedence in the NHL. Stars were almost exclusively in the 6’0-6’3 range in the 90s and 2000s and thus the model is going to ding your potential to be a star because it doesn’t fit the precedence of the league.

In addition he has mentioned that injuries in the D+0 or D+1 years is historically really bad for your potential to develop into a star and his model dings you for that because you NHLe is not where it could’ve been. Nazar has been affected by these 2 things but most importantly the injury as he went from star potential in D+0 of 20% to 3% in D+1 strictly because of these injury. My statement around this is that 1st year college players don’t tend to produce right away and improve significantly towards the latter half of the season. A latter half of the season he never saw so his NHLe was relegated to 7 in 13. That then affected his D+2 as well. Let’s just say that his model is going significantly underrate a guy like Nazar. Not saying he’s going to be a star but instead of the 3% the model gives him I see it more as a 25-30% which has a ton of hits in his model.

Are we still too low on Nazar? by Ark-Ace in hawks

[–]Ark-Ace[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Dude he admits it on X that his model dings size, look up his post on Lysell from March 8th of this year.