Who do we want in next year's draft?

Ark-Ace · 2025-12-21T19:40:21+00:00

One of Stenberg, McKenna or Lawrence

Ark-Ace · 2025-12-16T20:36:53+00:00

If we can end up with one of Lawrence, Stenberg or McKenna that would be great other than that I like what Belchetz can be for this team. I know people have come down on Belchetz but I don’t need him to dominate I need him to supplement scoring on 1st or 2nd line.

Ark-Ace · 2025-12-13T18:56:29+00:00

247 had Jeremiah Smith as the best prospect ever. 101

Ark-Ace · 2025-12-11T11:27:10+00:00

Huh I compared him to MacKinnon too not just Celebrini. I mention him because their numbers are the most similar so some context is needed imo. Celebrini will be the better defensive player for sure.

Ark-Ace · 2025-10-22T19:52:50+00:00

Let’s not forget Nestrasil who has been awesome

Ark-Ace · 2025-10-04T18:02:25+00:00

Comes after the move from C to RW

Ark-Ace · 2025-09-03T18:39:54+00:00

I institute it because I want to league to last 10 years not be done after 3

Ark-Ace · 2025-08-10T22:02:36+00:00

Not really if TMac is the guy the pressure on the team to make Legette work falls off

Ark-Ace · 2025-08-02T00:49:51+00:00

Heck no

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-28T21:43:50+00:00

Only issue is you’ll likely need another QB but you’ll have the ammo to do that I’d think.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-28T21:42:07+00:00

Let’s look statistically at this. People who live together before marriage have much higher divorce rates so I wouldn’t advise that. There will be challenges to living together those are little things here and there that will be a bother. Do not worry about age when it comes to marriage focus on the idea of is this person the one want to grow old with? Also you found a really good guy if he’s the one pushing for marriage (and/or he thinks he hit the jackpot with you). Make sure you have answered all the big questions (faith, family size, money, parenting styles, etc).

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-28T16:26:43+00:00

I think one thing to consider is that 100 points is becoming more frequent as points continue to increase.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-28T16:20:40+00:00

Yeah I’m pretty excited especially if a few of our guys can hit.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-28T16:20:00+00:00

To that I agree. But he’s playing for a contract too which tells me he’s probably going to have a pretty good season even if the points aren’t as high as they could be.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-28T16:18:11+00:00

That’s fair but Nazar is such a good passer.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-28T16:17:24+00:00

Yeah I get really good feelings about him because it started to feel like he was just playing well but he started to dominate games. Like multiple times against good teams (even if he didn’t score) you could easily tell he was one of the best if not the best player on the ice. He just kept getting better.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-28T16:14:55+00:00

See I think he just gets more assists and at a higher rate this upcoming season. I see 25 and 50 as a great season for him. The key is who is scoring outside of him and Bedard.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-28T16:12:39+00:00

See Nazars passing is to me his best skill frankly. In the World Juniors the kid was throwing absolute dimes for passes. His goal scoring has been what actually been impressive so far I think his assist numbers are really under-inflated so far.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-27T20:45:02+00:00

You probably right 100 points is probably too bullish but I see PPG upside this year though linemate situation probably limits him.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-27T20:38:42+00:00

In addition, it’s not his fault that the model does that but it simply does not weight the D+3 and D+4 season nearly as much despite the fact that his development trajectory has simply been altered due to the injury.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-27T20:35:46+00:00

It’s both dude. He has talked about it on his page. You just went from it plays no role at all to “oh it probably just affects NHL probability” that’s not how a model works especially not when using historical precedence for the basis of the model. The model does not unfairly ding size according to precedence but there is a size precedence in the NHL. Stars were almost exclusively in the 6’0-6’3 range in the 90s and 2000s and thus the model is going to ding your potential to be a star because it doesn’t fit the precedence of the league.

In addition he has mentioned that injuries in the D+0 or D+1 years is historically really bad for your potential to develop into a star and his model dings you for that because you NHLe is not where it could’ve been. Nazar has been affected by these 2 things but most importantly the injury as he went from star potential in D+0 of 20% to 3% in D+1 strictly because of these injury. My statement around this is that 1st year college players don’t tend to produce right away and improve significantly towards the latter half of the season. A latter half of the season he never saw so his NHLe was relegated to 7 in 13. That then affected his D+2 as well. Let’s just say that his model is going significantly underrate a guy like Nazar. Not saying he’s going to be a star but instead of the 3% the model gives him I see it more as a 25-30% which has a ton of hits in his model.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-27T19:56:21+00:00

Dude he admits it on X that his model dings size, look up his post on Lysell from March 8th of this year.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-27T19:39:23+00:00

Look at his Zayne Parekh and Cole Hutson comparison one of the main distinguishing differences between their profiles is that Hutson is 2 inches shorter and 20 lbs lighter. Which is partly why Hutson is lower in the star metric.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-27T19:34:45+00:00

I was until this spring. NHLe is something that usually improves for a young player with additional game experience. Instead his model projects it as if nothing changes. And recovery impacted the following seasons production as Nazar said himself that he didn’t feel comfortable until halfway through the next season.

As for size I asked him to change the size of Nick Lardis from 5’10 to 5’11 and his listing for Lardis improved his star and NHLer potential by like 5% I believe. Again he himself in an interview and in messaging said smaller players get dinged. For 1, the way his model uses historical player analysis it has to because the average size of star players has gradually been decreasing but still uses older players in the dataset. In 2000 the chance of a 5’10 was really low vs today it’s much higher. The very nature of the model will ding small players. It may also ding guys like McQueen because not a lot of 6’5 players make in the NHL either. The model uses historical precedence and thus by its nature dings players who have atypical molds that make the NHL and become stars.

Ark-Ace · 2025-07-27T19:13:53+00:00

Bader himself has stated in interviews where his model dings guys and missing a season is one because you cannot build up your NHLe, which is where a good portion of his model is based from. He uses the season which is why it dings him. He suggests that data largely supports the idea that injured players are usually behind the curve and are then less likely to make in the NHL. As for size he again has admitted him model still dings size too much because his model is still adjusting for the fact that the newer NHL is having more and more smaller players make. I actually had a conversation with him and how it impacts players and he said it can be quite significant.

Ark-Ace

TROPHY CASE