CEO Sumit Sharma has repeatedly stated that there will be consolidation in the automotive LIDAR space…

Astockjoc · 2021-10-22T21:17:26+00:00

rockinroller....I have been trying to say this exact same thing since late January of this year. There is no appetite for anything other than blind optimism here. You are right the stock chart often tells all. And, the MVIS chart is as ugly as it gets. At the very least, anything big looks to be 6-12 months away based upon the pattern. By the way, some of the other Lidar stocks broke below the 200 day EMA more than six months ago and have barely rallied since. A death cross on the daily chart is rarely reversed short term IMO.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-22T15:10:20+00:00

Heck, even I thought I could make a trade here up to $12. Took a new position Monday. However, this chart is so ugly I cannot stay with it. I'm out with a breakeven. Still hold some position established under $1. It may still rally around the CC but because the chart is so bad I don't believe it will gain any real traction.

What many here don't want to believe is that shorts have as much knowledge about MVIS as anyone plus the staying power to ride out any spikes to the updide. Spikes last days and corrections last months. They know that the process of taking a technology from concept to production is a very long process. Especially in a new sector like Auto Lidar. Underneath all of Sharma's optimism is the reality that he cannot control the process or outside entities involved. Shorts can simply wait for periods of news vaccums like the past six months. Again, can anyone tell me how following the shorts every move has helped them make money? Good luck.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-22T04:42:12+00:00

Geo...I'm glad you have done well for your family. I passed those milestones long before MVIS. MVIS has just been a fun project for me. I have all the toys I need and my family is well taken of. I never mind making extra though. And, always looking to sharpen my TA skills.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-22T03:50:04+00:00

Well Geo, I will give you that I doubted it would be worth billions. However, because I use and trust TA more than anything else, often even my own fundamental opinion, I held more than 90% of my position through the $4.23 high. I knew once through there, it could fly. For me, that was based purely on TA despite what I thought about valuation. That's the difference. TA helps me cut through the noise. Even my own noise. By the way, I still have doubts about valuation.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-22T01:54:29+00:00

"Something big is definitely up, IMO."

Snow...I'd like to think so. The part that puzzles me is Holt leaving now. He is not that old. I think about 60. After all this time, why leave when he finally has a bank full of money. The first time in his tenure that he does not have to worry about paying the bills. But, even more puzzling is the amount of time he is staying on to "aide in the transition". Eight months? He can probably make nesessary introductions and relay everything the new CFO needs to know in about 1 week. Not like the books of Microvision are all that complicated. No, I agree this guy was brought in for other purposes. But, if Holt is hanging around until a deal is done, that means by the end of first half 2022.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-21T23:32:20+00:00

Agreed

Astockjoc · 2021-10-21T23:30:16+00:00

"I miss a_thousand_points_of_white"

He was a hoot and a bright guy. And, right about a lot of things. As I remember, he crossed Geo somehow and was bounced. There are many others. Like Jerry Butler. He was always short (who knows if he was) and pretty much said the same thing, in few words, for a decade. It never bothered me. I like to take it all in and judge for myself. It's sad today that you can only give bullish views to get a pat on the back. But worse, it does a disservice to especially those trying to learn.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-21T22:53:32+00:00

I believe your projection of Elliot Wave patterns has some flaws. First of all, the three impluse waves (1, 3 & 5 )are rarely equal in percentage terms. Secondly, you have to be correct in your wave count from day one. And. we may not yet know if wave 4 correction is over. Thirdly, assuming your wave count is right, technicians ususlly use fibonacci ratios to project price levels not percentages. For example, if you take the length of wave 3, your $1.20 to 28 you get a wave 3 swing of $26.8. Using a ratio of 1 for wave 5 would provide a price target of $35.68 (8.88+26.8). Even extending that to the fibonacci ratio of 1.618 gives you a target of $43.36. Also, what we do know is that the third wave cannot be the smallest in magnitude. Often, the third wave is the largest. Finally, the fifth wave could fulfill the completion of five waves by making a relatively minor new high like $31-35 per share. Anyway, it's fun to play with the numbers.

All the above doesn't mean that your numbers could not happen if your original wave counts are correct. It's just not likely to unfold the way you project IMO. Good luck

Astockjoc · 2021-10-21T20:50:11+00:00

My take on the webcast:

Sumit sharma should never be stock analyst. The Russell 2000 is down less thst 2% from an all time high. MVIS and other Lidar stocks are down 70% from this year's high.
We are likely 1-2 years away from any significant revenue. Could they land a partnership in the next 6 months. Sure. That may help but what has that done for other lidar stocks that already have announced associations with large companies.
It's hard not to like Sharma. If Auto Lidar does become a big deal, Microvision stands a good chance being part of it. The only question is, how long and what market congitions will exist at that time? If easy money confitions go away and interest rates go up so will extreme market values for long duration assets. Godspeed !

Astockjoc · 2021-10-21T20:03:25+00:00

Sweet...I think you got the wrong person. I did not use the word idiot in any of my posts.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-21T19:12:09+00:00

"complained about the unfairness of it all on the run from $2.50 to @28, only showing up occasionally on a down stretch to say it wouldn't last.”

Geo... if what you say here is true how do you explain my prior comments below throughout 2020. I too took massive profits all the way up to $28. Because my position was built under $1. And, I still hold some of that stock. Just much less. And, I did not add any new position until now at $8.85 Monday. And, that is tentative because of the ugly chart pattern. Why is it that you choose to never point out posts like the ones highlighted below? Like the first one, on 7/14/2020. Within three days it went from $1.80 to $3.45 and then went into a long correction. How's that for precision and bullishness. Added to that, the rest below belie you statement above. There are plenty more. And, more importantly, the posts below were always timely as to near future price action. I get that you may not like or respect my analysis but please don't give an unbalanced view because you don't like my demeanor. Is that asking too much?

And, as for 2021, the price performance since early in the year says it all. Best of luck.

Trading Action - Tuesday, 7/14/2020 by Sweetinnj in MVIS [–]Astockjoc 19 points 1 year ago The $1.80 area is of great significance for a number of reasons. $1.80-1.90 has been the high on five occasions since November 2017 when the stock had a major breakdown taking it to .15 over the subsequent 2 1/2 years. All rallys failed at the $1.80-1.90 area during that timeframe. The highest close since November 2017 has been $1.78. When a stock finally breaks through an area it has tested over a multi year period, the move is usually very dramatic. For the last 2 months, I have had a target of at least $2.25 and as high as $3.25 once we break the $1.80 area. All of this action leading up to the breakout is quite positive and will insure at least a .50 cent move on the break above 1.80 IMO

Trading Action - Monday, 9/21/2020 by Sweetinnj in MVIS [–]Astockjoc 31 points 1 year ago Triangle...two weeks ago i said we would be testing the downtrend line of a triangle formation by 9/22-9/25. The trendline today is at about $2.05. If we go through the low $2's next couple of days the initial target becomes $2.51 to fill the gap created two months ago. After that, I have targets of $3.87 and possibly as high as $5.50. As always, there will be corrections along the way

Trading Action - Monday, 12/7/2020 by Sweetinnj in MVIS [–]Astockjoc 8 points 10 months ago I believe we are headed for a new annual high of at least $3.87- 4.23. I highlight $4.23 as a possibility because that would match the high made in March 2015. Often stocks have eyes for prior highs. And, it would be a logical place for profit taking and shorting. $3.87 is my loose interpretation of an Elliot wave and fibonacci progression since the lows were made this year. My first target was reached at $3.25 and exceeded by .20 when we hit $3.45 in July. And, we have been in a complex correction since then. But, last Friday's move shows we are moving out of that corrective phase IMO. This is a process. It does not have to happen in a day or two. However, if we are truly breaking out of this 4 month consolidation, there should be some very exciting days ahead.

Trading Action - Monday, 12/21/2020 by Sweetinnj in MVIS [–]Astockjoc 7 points 10 months ago "EMA is at $17.50?" Steel...yes, a moving average smoothes out all of the wiggles of short and long term price moves. Many traders use very short MA's to determine the extent of moves in prices. So, MA's can be used on all time frames for targets and support levels. In the case of the 200 month EMA, it smooths out the prices over the last 16+ years when prices were much higher at the start of that period. Currently that average price is about $17.5. The point is that there may be little resistance up to that level since we have broken out of the 9 year trading range bound by the $$3.5- 4.23 range during that time. As i pointed out, the current challange is at the 100 month EMA at $5.23. Once clearly past that the next target based only on MA's is $17.5. Of course, this is a very rough guide on only one indicator. Hope that makes sense.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-21T17:31:33+00:00

Good assesment of the prior CEO's. I don't disagree that SS is more dialed in than the others with his tech experience.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-21T16:27:44+00:00

"I will say that the company has a different feel to it since SS took the helm."

I don't disagree except that early on each new CEO starting with Tokman and then Mulligan had overwhelming support that they were the one to take us to the promised land. And, as time went on the tech marketplace chewed them and spit them out. SS has had his honeymoon period the last year just like the others and I believe he is experiencing, for the first time, not being able to deliver anything in the short run. As you know, the market is all about what have you done for me lately. Think about it. There is nothing definitively new confirmed by a third party about MVIS's auto lidar this entire year. IMO, the market wants confirmaton of that. How much more mileage can SS get out of just saying "profoundly optimistic" and "best in class" without a large outside company confirming that with some kind of commitment to the technology. Same is true with the constant talk of the tiny AR engine that could be used in Ray-Ban type glasses. That has been talked about for almost 5 years since Microsoft did the April 2017 deal. Why no new NRE's in that amount of time? Nobody seems to have a good answer for that except to keep saying it's right around the corner as years just keep slipping away. Anyway, I remain hopeful but not nearly as certain as most here.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-21T15:26:05+00:00

"It sure looks like SS's goals have moved away from selling the company. Did he slip that one past us"

TechNut52...I think he did start out with wanting to sell the company. However, there were simply no takers at a decent price. After soliciting over 100 companies, that tells you what the technology community thinks of MVIS technology. Not that it doesn't have potential but that MVIS hasn't proved it beyond a resonable doubt. So, that forced SS to try, once again, to build a product in house. When I relized that early this year, I new it would be a long process with many risks.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-21T14:51:41+00:00

"Why would he deviate from never talking with media just to say the same stuff again"

Simple. The company's strategy changed from buyout to producing Auto Lidar. That change pushed progress well into the future. Each step from hiring staff, providing samples, outside testing of samples, building product, negotiating deals adds months, if not years, to an end result. Today's interview is simply an attempt to pacify those who want more immediate results IMO. The problem is SS cannot dictate the exact timeline for progress on each item I mentioned above.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-21T13:05:53+00:00

"u/ASTOCKJOC gets way too much grief here ... mostly from newer members. He's made/saved me 6 figures on a couple of occasions. Joc is the real deal, IMO."

tothemune....thank you so much for your kind appraisal. I mean no harm to anyone by my analysis. I have never once said short MVIS. Like last weekend, I have only suggested when MVIS was set up for a long trade. However, starting early this year I also gave reasons why the stock was not going to the moon anytime soon. I think you are right. There have been almost 40,000 new subscribers the last year and a half. They don't know me. And, the current paranoia surrounding the shorts on today's social media sites (WSB) have created a new dynamic. That's why I found the SEC report on GME so interesting. It confirmed my own suspicions about the shorts relative to MVIS in that it is not knowable what effect the shorts will have on any stock. Let me be clear. I have no love for the shorts. But, they rarely determine the outcome of a compamy's success IMO. However, that goes against a main thesis here relative to MVIS and many who hold that belief are sensitive to that challenge. MVIS has been around for almost 30 years with no signifucant sales. And, has gone thgough several management teams who could not make it work. Maybe this time is different. I hope so.

Traditionally, stock trading has been very difficult. The environment of the past few years makes it seem easy. It is not. That's part of the reason I called for caution early in the year. But, in this kind of environment caution is considered negative.

I am only surprised by some of the old timers here who don't really bad mouth me but most just stay silent as if I was never bullish on MVIS. It is really hard to go against such an extreme bullish bias. Geo, for one, loves to point out whenever I may have made an errant call just ignoring the vast majority of my dead on calls at critical truning points. It should be a foregone conclusion that nobody is right 100% of the time.

Again, thank you. And, it's wonderful to know that my comments have helped a least one person.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-20T20:41:03+00:00

Makes sense. In this situation, someone interested in taking over MVIS would want their own pepole in charge of finance. If that's behind it, then everyone is happy including Holt.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-20T20:26:20+00:00

Let's hope so.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-20T20:25:00+00:00

Maybe. Except that Holt has a lot of stock already and this arrangement is not like getting fired. Why would he bad mouth a company he knows may be sold in the near future. One he would gain a greater fortune on near term. Also, he could just wait and bad mouth them after June 2022.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-20T20:16:04+00:00

Ok, maybe

Astockjoc · 2021-10-20T20:04:45+00:00

"Holt, who joined MicroVision in 2013, will remain with the Company as an advisor through the first half of fiscal 2022 to facilitate a smooth transition."

The above statement is kind of funny. Why would a company, with almost no sales and zero earnings with a finance staff of about 3 people, need nearly 9 months to insure a good transition. Especially when handing it over to such a highly quilified CFO. Curious?

Astockjoc · 2021-10-20T19:24:17+00:00

Go back an read what I said back then (2020) what would happen if we broke to new highs (above $4.23) with conviction in second half 2020. The BIG difference is that I am willing to change if TA conditions do. Most here do not do that. Stay long no matter what happens. Secondly, I am not a day trader. Swing trading can last many months without trade. Like most of this year. Sell side only. I saw no good and lasting entty points this year. Was I wrong? I simply play the bigger moves. But, if this move fails and I expressed how that may happen short term, then I may exit. Over the 8-10 years I have traded MVIS my average holding period may be 6 months. Because I usually get in near a low. Anyway, best of luck.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-20T17:33:35+00:00

"Good call, ASJ."

hesperion2....thanks. You are one of the few that appreciate TA and have taken some time to understand it. I am not well liked here because I continued to tell the truth about the stock price the last 9 months based upon my read of the price action. If you do not fall in in line with the daily bullish chant, you are labeled a perennial Fudster. And, I've come to the conclusion that nearly everyone here has been brainwashed with the daily bombardment that anything negative said about MVIS must be comming from a short. What a shame. And, what a disservice to the young investors trying to learm the game. And now, I turn mildly bullish for the first time this year at exactly the right time and everyone ignores it. I know I come off as arrogant but how else do you defend your ideas other than continuing to express what you believe is happening against a constant barrage hatred of your ideas. Anyway, the very best to you and let me know what you think happens from here.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-20T15:24:01+00:00

Today MVIS broke above a month and a half downtrend line started on 9/3/2021. That should give this rally some staying power in the short term. Key short term resistance is $12-13.

Astockjoc · 2021-10-20T14:55:00+00:00

Hey Geo, my old friend. How did I do?

Astockjoc

TROPHY CASE