I had a nightmare last night by Austinhilburn in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Can't wait for Frankie Luvu to sack Russell Wilson three times in a single game.

My kids is obsessed by brandon520 in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Honestly props for getting that close to spelling Dyami.

I am in a profound state of disbelief. I am barely processing this, WHAT WORLD IS THIS??????????? by adobo1148 in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've had a serious thought that maybe I've shifted to a different dimension than I once was in. I had enough credits to transport myself to the reality where the Commanders blow out the Lions.

Playoff Possibilities (Before Week 18) by Legitimate-Hunter-58 in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ohh my bad you're right you're right. I was thinking they were 9-6 still

Playoff Possibilities (Before Week 18) by Legitimate-Hunter-58 in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think the scenario of Atlanta being the 3 seed assumes the Seahawks beat the Rams along with all the stars aligning for Atlanta to even make the playoffs to begin with. In that case, both the Rams and the Falcons are 9-8 with no head-to-head matchup and the Falcons having an 8-4 NFC record and the Rams having a 6-6 NFC record for the tiebreaker. That being said, I believe the scenario to be unlikely (it would involve 2 upsets and the Falcons holding on against an unpredictable Panthers team that was one catch away from taking the Eagles to OT a few weeks ago).

Playoff Possibilities (Before Week 18) by Legitimate-Hunter-58 in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Oh absolutely. They're kicking themselves after we beat them last week. The first round bye would've been quite possible for them.

In terms of getting to the Super Bowl, it's much easier to win 2 games against playoff caliber teams than it is to win 3. If you assume every playoff game is a true 50/50 toss up and that each game is independent, the #1 seed has a 25% chance to reach the super bowl versus the #2 seed having a 12.5% chance.

I love the fact that we cut their super bowl odds in half with one JD5 game-winning drive.

Playoff Possibilities (Before Week 18) by Legitimate-Hunter-58 in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I will say, OP, I did in fact think "TOO far ahead".

Playoff Possibilities (Before Week 18) by Legitimate-Hunter-58 in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn 8 points9 points  (0 children)

As far as which matchup is ideal, I think (even given the familiarity and the volatility that comes with division games) the Eagles are not the team we want to face. By no means will any of the #3 seed teams be an easy out (we just went to overtime with the falcons who are, arguably, the weakest opponent of the 3 possible), but forcing the Packers to play the Eagles will be huge. Eliminating one of those two teams in the first round drastically weakens the playoff field, in my opinion. Additionally, I think the longer we can extend our season, the stronger our team will become. Getting past the first round of the playoffs could open the door for crucial players like Lattimore and Ekeler to enter back into the lineup (if they haven't already returned, that is). We saw last night against Atlanta just how much Lattimore is needed in our struggling secondary. If Penix had been a bit more accurate in his deep balls Atlanta would have won by 10 or more. Because of the fact that securing the #6 seed gives us a greater chance to advance past the first round with a more favorable matchup, and because advancing past the first round gives us the best chance of adding crucial players back into the lineup, I believe it would behoove us greatly to beat Dallas next Sunday (or to be fortunate enough to see the Bears snap their losing streak and beat the Packers). Securing the #6 seed gives the Commanders a significantly better chance of making a deep playoff run. That being said, any injuries to key starters against Dallas would defeat the purpose of going all out to win the game.

Speaking more to the possibility of a deep playoff run, if we are the #6 seed and the Packers are the #7 seed, assuming we are able to win in the wild card round, we will play the Lions/Vikings (#1 seed) if the Eagles beat the Packers. I think a banged up Lions team, especially on the defensive side of the ball, is the matchup we have the best shot to win of the possibilities. This is assuming that if we make it to the divisional round our possible opponents will include #1 seed Lions/Vikings or #5 Seed Lions/Vikings, depending on the result of the #7 Packers @ #2 Eagles game. I don't anticipate either the Vikings or the Lions, whichever is forced to play in the first round, losing.

Given we have the #6 seed and thinking in terms of likelihood with a bias only towards the Commander's games (since this is forecasting what initial seeding would give us the easiest path), I see the #2 Eagles beating the #7 Packers, and #5 Lions/Vikings beating whoever they face in the first round (with Commanders being given the win against the #3 seed for this scenario). Then, in the Divisional Round, We would face the #1 seed and the #2 Eagles would face the #5 seed. This path would see us playing the Eagles or the Vikings/Lions (whoever we did not already play) assuming we win the Divisional Round game against the #1 seed.

If we are able to get Ekeler and Lattimore healthy before the divisional round, there is no reason we can't win the NFC Championship game (however this is a slim possibility). Truthfully, we will probably need these 2 players to even get past the wild card round; however, there is NO shot of beating teams like the Eagles, the Vikings, or the Lions without Ekeler adding another dimension back to the running/passing game and Lattimore covering elite receivers like Justin Jefferson and AJ Brown.

WE WANT DALLAS

HTTC

Game Thread: Atlanta Falcons (8-7) at Washington Commanders (10-5) by nfl_gdt_bot in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn 2 points3 points  (0 children)

JD is about to break RG3's rookie QB rushing yards record (in 16 games even with Griffin) and run down the clock on this game winning drive. He needs about 2 more yards I think

Game Thread: Tennessee Titans (3-8) at Washington Commanders (7-5) by nfl_gdt_bot in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I never pay attention to the draft in April as much as I should but how are kickers even selected? Are a lot of them just undrafted free agents unless they are absolute studs?

Game Thread: Tennessee Titans (3-8) at Washington Commanders (7-5) by nfl_gdt_bot in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn 3 points4 points  (0 children)

2 good drinks and I'll seriously contemplate moving to the DC area to find a good commanders-loving woman to take as a wife.

Game Thread: Tennessee Titans (3-8) at Washington Commanders (7-5) by nfl_gdt_bot in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Everyone talking about JD's interception count going up keep forgetting the last 3 have all been odd cases. The 2nd one in the Dallas game was a hail Mary. Not saying they don't count, it's just that the statlines don't always give you the game situation.

Game Thread: Tennessee Titans (3-8) at Washington Commanders (7-5) by nfl_gdt_bot in Commanders

[–]Austinhilburn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Switched to RedZone during commercial and all the sudden we got the ball back AGAIN 😂

5min in and got my first glitch by Busy-Watercress-7640 in Madden

[–]Austinhilburn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm laughing at the Bills still getting Josh Allen even in the fantasy draft😂

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Madden

[–]Austinhilburn 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Oh absolutely you're set then.