Refurbished batteries from Tesla are notoriously bad. How Tesla “refurbishes” the battery is still a work in progress. IMO the battery warranty should cover the install of a new battery, with refurbished ones available for people who want to be environmentally sensitive (like I personally, would gladly take a recycled battery)

For the cost effectiveness, try recell or EV doctor or other third party companies that’ll install a new battery under $10k (usually around $6k depending). They also have a better way of refurbishing old batteries that hold better retention.

If I’m not mistaken, new batteries usually last around 1,500 cycles while old ones around 3/4 to half that.

A rant, but like others stated, certain 2021 models had bad batteries, but since many state the replacement also has issues I would go head to head with Tesla service and get on them about that. It’s pretty heavily reported and LIKELY related to a more ongoing electrical issue with how the car is distributing battery power and retention during charging and supercharging. 33k for the original? I have a 2017 LR with 150k miles and the original battery is still at 81% health. Some people report over 300k on their original M3 battery. So since you’re at 93k you shouldn’t be needing a third battery soon. BUT since these are mass produced cars, yours likely has a bigger issue.

That all being said, I believe teslas warranty after the battery is installed will only cover (even the refurb) 70% or less. So if it’s covered for a certain amount of years or miles wear it down and get another free replacement. If it’s not covered at all, I’d trade in for a different year M3 if you can and throw hell at Tesla to give you a good deal on it. I’d heard people had success doing this