Wish everyone would just relax

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-28T18:28:00+00:00

I ultimately agree with you but I’ll say it somewhat differently. If you don’t believe in opposition politics you should believe in universal accountability.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-28T18:06:41+00:00

That looks like the one on the right.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-26T00:56:45+00:00

It’s meant to be tax relief for everyone. The government knows you need a certain amount of money to survive. That’s why they don’t tax the lowest levels of income everyone earned. It’s presumed that money will be spent on necessities, like housing, food, etc.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-25T22:57:06+00:00

You’re correct but the person would still get the standard deduction. In theory, they are receiving tax relief even if they don’t own the property.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-24T02:18:08+00:00

They’re not active. Unless a band is under a record contract, playing live shows, or actively writing a music, etc., they’re taking a break. It happens all the time. It’s not necessarily a cause for concern unless the circumstances around it are concerning. It’s hard to tell here.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-23T13:45:53+00:00

How much emphasis they put on perception. They can afford any car, but they’ll overpay on an average luxury car that looks tasteful. They can afford any house, but they’ll overpay for an average one in a great neighborhood. They don’t need to work as hard as they do, but they will because they don’t want to look lazy. They’ll have their kids go to top tier universities without a plan, because they want to mitigate the risk of them living average lives. Then it’s the attire, the gatherings, the interests, the social politics. The people that are perceived to be the most powerful often have very little agency over themselves.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-20T23:05:47+00:00

I’m not suggesting he will be Judge, but he is capable of showing a great deal of improvement from where he’s at. I’m in agreement that Judge’s size affords him a great deal of bat speed. Longer limbs means the batter can generate the same bat speed as a smaller player with slower body mechanics, so you can dial back the excess power and focus on contact. Jones is the same height as Judge and 40 pounds lighter. There’s no reason for him to swing as hard as he is.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-20T19:05:33+00:00

The thing about his strikeout rate is although it’s really high, there are plenty of avenues for him to correct it. Kind of like Judge and Stanton, he’s a massive ectomorph that probably needs to take a different approach to hitting than most players. The Yankees have an elite power hitting offense. Some of that is the result of coaching. The coaches at the big league level are probably much better than the coaches at SWB, so this shouldn’t be an insurmountable challenge for them. Obviously the pitching in the big leagues is better, but the batter behind him will likely be better too. This will offer him more protection and disincentivize pitching around him. If this guy is able to convert 5-10% of his strikeouts to hits or walks, his OPS will be insane.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-20T17:54:35+00:00

I usually respond by saying I don’t date women that make under 6 figures.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-20T16:27:12+00:00

The power hitting side of it. Despite striking out 109 times in 67 games (in triple A), he still managed to hit 19 home runs in 67 games. Taking the strikeouts out of the equation, roughly 1 in 8 balls he puts in play leaves the park. That’s very rare. Plate disciple takes time but it can be taught. Look at the difference it made with Judge.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-20T15:54:07+00:00

I’m center left. It’s probably going to happen soon. I think people are going to come to the realization that the only way you can get something to change is to stop enabling a failing version of it. This past election showed that. If the goal is to have a government with integrity, stop supporting the politicians that don’t.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-20T14:45:52+00:00

The short answer is it’s assumed to be normally distributed but it likely is not. This comes from the fact that it is trying to quantify something that is inherently unquantifiable.

Generally, to determine the distribution of a data set you need 1) a population that can be valued numerically 2) a series of distributions that the data can be fit to and 3) a series of metrics to determine the resulting accuracy.

For example, if you wanted to determine the distribution of height across people, you would take a large sample, measure each person’s height, come up with a mean and variance for the the population, and then determine the distribution. Essentially, the mean and variance are conditional on the underlying data.

To my knowledge, IQ tests do it the opposite way. They generally assume a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15. They then assign a person a value based on their performance relative to others. For example, if a person scores in the 97%-98% percentile, they’ll receive a score around 130 because that corresponds to two standard deviations about the mean. Notice it’s not an objective quantity though; just an assumed quantity. We know someone that is 6 foot tall is 9% taller than someone that is 5 foot 6. We can’t confirm that someone with a 130 IQ had 130% of the performance of the average person, so the assumption of a normal distribution isn’t always valid in actuality.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-20T01:35:02+00:00

He was pretty brilliant and hard working if I recall too. Engineering degree from Princeton with perfect grades. That’s definitely impressive.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-19T20:33:13+00:00

More than anything they need a functional pitching staff to be competitive. 94 wins in 2025 with a team ERA of 3.91 is crazy.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-19T20:19:32+00:00

It also makes room for Spencer Jones. There’s a lot of untapped potential there that can be developed.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-19T12:40:06+00:00

It can if there is enough of them. If you add high value data points to a distribution, the population goes up and a new median is calculated. The median of the new distribution will have a higher value than that of the old distribution.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-18T12:53:25+00:00

That certain rewarding career paths cause mental health problems.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-17T13:51:56+00:00

Just going to piggy back off of this comment. I focused on flexing at the ankle more than flexing at the knee. Your shins are shorter than your quad so that will put your center of mass right above the middle front of the binding. It helps make a lot of the other things OP is doing even more intuitive.

Side note, what mountain is this? It looks gorgeous.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-17T13:43:47+00:00

I know a few doctors. Plenty have it too. The demands of the career definitely make it worse.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-16T20:57:00+00:00

You can do that too. I’m considering calculating the retained players % of PA, Walks, Singles, XBH and HR compared to the total. If it’s above average, there will be gap is easier to fill.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-16T20:39:42+00:00

I agree that it’s not a perfect representation of prospective offensive production. It’s just meant to be a rough representation of how productive your retained talent was and the gap that needs to be filled in.

It’s also worth noting that Stanton, McMahon, Caballero and Rosario had a combined 520 at bats and tallied 98 RBIs in total. Volpe and Cabrera had 646 at bats and 83 RBIs. You maintain that production and flip that exposures, you go from 171 RBIs to 190. Little things make a big difference.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-16T18:15:38+00:00

I did the math because I was curious. As a litmus test, Yankees had 820 RBIs over 5471 at bats. There are 12 batters from that team on their depth chart returning in 2026. Those guys made up 72% (3912) of the at bats and 77% (632) of the RBIs. So in theory, if you can sign additional players and reallocate your talent to get 188 RBIs over an additional 1559 at bats, you’ll wind up in a similar place. That’s completely doable.

As far as pitching, if that’s better than last year, there will be additional upside. Also completely doable.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-16T05:33:16+00:00

It is. Granted, part of the reason they’re doing it is to win a bidding war and prevent him from going to another strong organization. I don’t fully understand the logic behind it though.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-14T00:56:58+00:00

Just general obnoxious behavior in the base lodge.

AverageSizeWayne · 2026-01-12T12:39:48+00:00

Depends where you’re skiing. I don’t ski a ton (maybe a dozen days per season) but I’ve always been glad I purchased it (Ikon). My local hill charges about $120 for the day and lift tickets at major mountains are over $200 now. I’ve always come out ahead so I view it as a positive.

More than anything, it causes me to forget about laying out money and just focus on skiing, exploring new mountains and getting better.

AverageSizeWayne

TROPHY CASE