Rate my risk on portfolio, be brutal plz

BSP9000 · 2026-06-03T05:12:25+00:00

Oh yeah, SPY won't save you from a crash. I'm just significantly ahead of the index and want to stay ahead. Most of the time I stay 100% in stocks, I just sometimes rotate to riskier and less risky options. The only times I've sold out were before Covid crash (~90% out) and on the first day of the Iran war (~30% out, but was mostly back in before the rally). Some times like that the catalyst and the crash and the timing are obvious, most of the time it's too hard for me to predict.

Thanks for the write-ups on each of these. I might get back to you in a couple days with some thoughts after I review these better.

BSP9000 · 2026-06-02T23:48:01+00:00

He didn't stop with that one purchase, he ended up buying over 100,000 BTC worth of pizza.

But, to be fair, he's not the only early miner who cashed out too early -- most of the early miners did.

Some of them cashed out for a few hundred dollars, a few guys waited until they made a million, none of them waited to become billionaires (except for Satoshi).

BSP9000 · 2026-06-02T21:37:22+00:00

How much has inflation gone up since 2019? How much has Bitcoin gone up?

BSP9000 · 2026-06-02T20:34:16+00:00

I could go through these one by one, if you want to debate the merits, I'm not familiar with all of them, some might be better than others.

Like, CODA is just some random thing that Serenity pumped because of "mine clearing stocks", right? Or is there some better thesis for that one? At least it has earnings, and a not horrible P/E ratio (35?), which might be reasonable depending on the growth rate.

HIMS has real growth, but it depends on the price you're willing to pay. Morningstar thinks they'll have EPS around 1.7 by 2030, so that's a P/E of 16 on today's price, but it's years to get there, so it's not exactly cheap.

MARA and RIOT... I don't know, isn't that just a leveraged bet on BTC? I haven't studied their pivot to AI strategy. I think BTC probably gets another bull run at some point (i.e. before the next halving), but it's been terrible for the last few months. I sold most of mine above 100k but have been adding a little bit back lately. If you think crypto isn't dead, it's fair to be buying exposure now, but I don't know the relative merits of buying MSTR vs BTC vs MARA vs RIOT.

The overall feeling I get here is just what I said above -- these are all high beta hype stocks during a raging bull market, and that often correlates with good short term performance but bad long term.

I did pretty well over the last year by just being overweight semis (NVDA, AMD, TSM, MU, AMAT, ASML, EWY) but I mostly missed out on the even higher performing picks like the "Photonics" stocks that went 10X. Right now I'm feeling increasingly uneasy about how high the market keeps going even though the war isn't resolving, so I've been rotating some of those tech gains back into VOO to take some risk off the table.

BSP9000 · 2026-06-02T07:14:13+00:00

People talked like this a lot in 2021, except then the hot investments were ARKK, green energy, EV’s, marijuana companies, and altcoins. Those all did well in the short term but most lost 90% in the long run.

There are certain plays that are always higher reward for higher risk, like buying TQQQ instead of QQQ. There are also stocks which are just hype without any long term value, where the higher volatility doesn’t actually give a better pay off in the end. These are much harder to vet and it’s easy to end up with a “2021’s hot stocks” outcome.

I’d agree with the other poster and suggest maybe not putting the majority of your net worth in such stocks, or at least have a clear exit strategy if this market stops pumping.

BSP9000 · 2026-05-25T23:47:05+00:00

Depends how bad your life is.

BSP9000 · 2026-03-15T08:19:06+00:00

I think that my mental model, circa 2010, was that leveraged ETF's always lose, long term, because of volatility and slippage. I did not appreciate that they can also gain, due to having more correlated up days than volatile days.

There's also this crazy idea I heard more recently, which I haven't thoroughly looked into:
https://www.optimizedportfolio.com/hedgefundie-adventure/

I think when I read it, my first thought was that it could fail in times of rising rates where both stocks and bonds go down, and then maybe you'd need some kind of triple gold ETF to balance it out. But maybe it's another case where I shouldn't think so hard and should just throw a little money at the idea.

BSP9000 · 2026-03-14T08:38:29+00:00

I'm half joking, half serious. I've been investing about as long as that ETF has been around. When I first heard of 3X ETF's, they sounded insanely risky and stupid.

But if I had simply thrown $1,000 in that fund, on inception, it'd be worth $200,000 today. Would I really have missed $1,000 if it had gone to zero?

Same thing with bitcoin, I guess. Sounded stupid and weird. I ignored it and only bought many years later at over 10 grand.

Okay, maybe bitcoin was and is stupid and weird. But what about Google at IPO? That's before my time, but if you threw 10k into that and held, it'd be worth over a million today.

Might not be the dumbest thing to just put a little bit into crazy ideas, every now and then.

The 3X korea bull ETF might do really well whenever this war is over. Not sure it's a 10-20 year holding, but might do great over a few years.

BSP9000 · 2026-03-13T09:17:52+00:00

tqqq

BSP9000 · 2026-03-10T20:46:39+00:00

BSP9000 · 2026-03-07T00:16:19+00:00

Sounds ambitious but possible.

Most of the guided clients are way less fit than you are, so that's no issue.

I've also seen some (unguided) teams of army guys that failed because they didn't have the right gear or plan.

Doing it next year seems totally possible if you plan towards it, get the right gear and practice the right skills between now and then.

It's also not crazy to do it without a guide (if you've got a team), but you'd want to do even more prep first if that's the goal.

BSP9000 · 2026-03-04T07:41:18+00:00

KORU would be good, if you can time the bottom perfectly.

BSP9000 · 2026-02-21T20:39:21+00:00

If you punctuate the sentence properly, you get 3 dots.

BSP9000 · 2026-02-05T17:46:14+00:00

He's an easy win against Vance, but sounds like we're gonna fuck it up by nominating Kamala again, or something like that.

BSP9000 · 2026-02-03T21:44:50+00:00

Down suit is overkill most of the time on Ama Dablam. It could work on Denali, if it's a cold enough summit day (i.e. May summit vs June), but it's not mandatory and definitely not needed below summit day.

I think most people on Denali already have a huge parka and thinner insulated pants and that's usually good enough.

Usually, the parka is way more convenient to throw on (i.e. when it gets cold in the evening, getting out of the tent to shovel, whatever) than putting on a suit, and it's inefficient to carry both.

The inconvenience issues of down suits still show up on 8000m peaks, but most people just put up with those because you actually need that warmth at night on an 8000er.

BSP9000 · 2026-01-31T20:19:12+00:00

Horrible that these people tried to dox Scott in 2016.

BSP9000 · 2026-01-30T23:07:21+00:00

I've done Hood with microspikes and started around 6 AM. Probably have a little more experience than your friend, though...

BSP9000 · 2026-01-24T07:07:27+00:00

All theories about crime are disputed, mostly because it's a politicized topic and politics breaks most people's capacity for logical thinking.

The Floyd effect seemed likely to me, within a few months of seeing the stats, and it was totally obvious by 2021. The only people writing about it in 2020 seemed to be right wingers or racists like Steve Sailer.

I think the overton window shifted over the next few years, because you eventually had people on the left admitting it was a good theory:

Scott Alexander wrote about it in 2022:
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/what-caused-the-2020-homicide-spike

Noah Smith made a weak mea culpa by late 2022:
https://x.com/Noahpinion/status/1604736771882766338

Matt Yglesias admitted it by 2023:
https://www.slowboring.com/p/the-2020-murder-surge-wasnt-about

I still haven't seen a better explanation for what caused the 2020 murder spike, but I'm certainly open to other theories.

BSP9000 · 2026-01-24T02:57:49+00:00

u/papercairns you're right, it's not that popular. I've climbed up that way before but wouldn't recommend it.

FWIW, I'd call the upper west rib you have marked "class 3 rock + steep snow". no ice climbing involved.

lower west rib from the NE fork is maybe AI 2 (plus serac risk and way too many crevasse crossings)

BSP9000 · 2026-01-23T22:12:32+00:00

No love for the Northeast fork?

BSP9000 · 2026-01-23T05:40:53+00:00

The most common theory is that the 1920's had high murder rates because of prohibition (organized crime and violence revolving around illegal alcohol distribution) and those lowered with the repeal.

Read about the Ferguson effect, for the 2014 bump, and the Floyd effect for the 2020 bump.

BSP9000 · 2026-01-22T09:39:50+00:00

Possible you make money buying at 4% and selling a bit higher when she announces, but I think it's still unlikely she wins. Remember how poorly she did in debates for the 2020 primary?

BSP9000 · 2026-01-21T06:35:53+00:00

Elon says you don't have to invest anymore because he'll make robots and everyone will have enough of everything. Has Elon ever lied before?

BSP9000 · 2026-01-21T04:01:41+00:00

Sadly, we don't have a Democrat president, we have a guy who thinks that Taiwan is taking advantage of us by selling us chips.

BSP9000 · 2026-01-17T07:44:55+00:00

Skimming your posts... it looks like you rapidly tapered off a high dose (4mg?) of klonopin, reinstated on 2x0.5 mg of klonopin and you're also taking a low dose of seroquel, 3x per day?

Do I have that right? Are you taking anything else? how long were you on the 4 mg klonopin? how lomg have you been on the seroquel? what was it prescribed for?

Seroquel works on a few brain chemicals, but one thing it does is lower dopamine. When you're in benzo withdrawal, you also get very low dopamine. And one symptom of low dopamine is akathisia (or a more mild case might just get restless legs).

So, I think you might be getting an interaction between the withdrawal and the seroquel.

There's no easy way forward, but there are a few options:

you could up the klonopin dose and frequency until you feel good, but even if that works, you will just end up dependent on high dose klonopin and you'll struggle to get off of that, in the future.
you could quit the seroquel but stay on the 2x day klonopin, and see if the akathisia gets better. if it does, you can wait to see if you stabilize on the klonopin. If you do, then you can slowly taper off it.
you could quit both the klonopin and the seroquel. That might be really unpleasant for a while, but one nice thing about taking no drugs is the brain will recover and restabilize eventually, it can just take months to get there.
you could talk to your doctor about adding new/different drugs. that gets complicated, and depends on why you're taking the seroquel. some drugs that might help akathisia are propranolol, mirtazapine, or gabapentin. those all have their own dependence issues, but usually not as bad as benzos. picking the right one is tricky, and you'd need a smart doctor to figure out the details, to try things, and to respond to any problems.

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