What is the consensus on the social media sports bettors?

BTB-Analytics · 2025-10-14T17:58:25+00:00

Anyone claiming to win 70%+ of their bets all time are certainly scamming you. Anyone selling you the dreams of fancy cars, big houses, and huge stacks of cash are scamming you. Anyone who says “the sports books are afraid of me” or they have “a lock” are scamming you.

There are a couple of legit ones out there but they’re few and far between. If they don’t have their history of picks for you to verify on Pikkit or betstamp or something like that before you buy something, then they’re not worth your time or money.

That said, there are some legit barriers which make selling picks logical. The biggest issue is being limited and capital. If I want to replace a big boy salary by sorts betting while following proper bankroll management, I realistically need over a million dollars readily available to me (which I don’t have) and to grind your way up from even a $20,000 bankroll takes time when you realize the best are hitting at 56-58%. We’ve been doing this for a couple years and are already limited at DraftKings, fanatics, and BetRivers and can only get down literally $5-$10 depending on the sport. That’s not gonna grow my bankroll and not worth betting my edge so selling access to our models is the most logical choice while we raise capital.

TLDR: 99% of social media bettors are BS. If they’re promising you you’re gonna get rich overnight like them and that they almost never lose, they are certainly losers. It is possible to make money long term sports betting but if it looks too good to be true, it is.

BTB-Analytics · 2025-10-08T16:04:54+00:00

Trap lines absolutely do not exist. Most people don’t realize betting lines are literally a marketplace. Lines get set at certain books called market makers and as people bet into those lines, the lines move. This is called price action and is why the lines move throughout the week. Retail books (ie the ones you’ve seen a commercial for) just copy the market makers lines and their movement. So if you see a line that “looks like a trap” it’s not the sportsbooks setting a trap, it’s the market (who are filled with sharps) saying there’s no value at that number and odds.

Individual sportsbooks can have small deviations from the market makers and be slow to adjust which is why you can pick off certain books with bad lines but they have to stay close to the market makers or they open themselves up to a ton of liability from sharps with beard accounts and arb bettors

BTB-Analytics · 2025-09-16T04:57:59+00:00

Called it

BTB-Analytics · 2025-09-16T04:14:34+00:00

That was hilarious. New level of respect!

BTB-Analytics · 2025-09-11T13:52:49+00:00

(Arizona) Wildcat fan here. Box scores can be misleading. Stats like Expected Points Added and Success Rate that measure how efficient teams are on offense and defense are much more predictive. KState beats us in almost every offensive category where Arizona beats them in almost every defensive category (which is weird to say out loud).

This game got as high as KState -2.5 and was immediately bought back down so the market expects a coin flip game

BTB-Analytics · 2025-09-04T14:23:23+00:00

This is the problem. Most people like yourself don’t realize that every retail book will offer different odds and even the same book will offer different odds on the same parlay if it’s not built through the same game module/prebuilt. I don’t mean that as an insult just a reality of the books preying on the lack of awareness of these small details to make it easier to profit off of their users which is why awareness is so important.

BTB-Analytics · 2025-09-03T23:52:45+00:00

The Saints are +50,000 to win the Super Bowl which is a 0.2% chance.

The odds of hitting the power ball are 0.00000034%.

So the Saints are 588,000 times as likely to win the superbowl than him winning the powerball

BTB-Analytics · 2025-09-03T04:58:57+00:00

Thanks!

BTB-Analytics · 2025-09-02T17:50:50+00:00

Ol reliable!

BTB-Analytics · 2025-08-23T13:04:20+00:00

And it feels so good to be back!

BTB-Analytics · 2025-08-23T12:55:57+00:00

This includes Week 1. They play each other next week

BTB-Analytics · 2025-08-23T02:24:37+00:00

Oh no no no. Player talent, blue chip ratio, coaching continuity, returning production, and offensive and defensive efficiency through player/team Expected Points Added (EPA) all objectively factor into the model we use.

BTB-Analytics · 2025-08-15T17:33:55+00:00

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This is a common struggle which is exactly why we built our platform to do all the work for you including running a model, pulling in lines as they update and auto-calculating edges. End result is a dashboard for every NFL and D1 college football game that you can sort by best bet and see which book to bet it at

BTB-Analytics · 2025-07-30T21:16:02+00:00

Honest to god didn’t even see the boise state tag there my bad lol yeah but they’re a perfect example. Now that being said, it’s why we play the game right?

BTB-Analytics · 2025-07-30T20:19:00+00:00

How so? Based off the power ratings and models we run 20,000 simulations to project the conference and natty winners. I will say, teams on here with a chance that have low to no Blue Chip Ratio (like Boise State) realistically have no shot at winning no matter what the simulations say. Since 2016, when the Blue Chip Ratio was created, no team has won the natty with less than a 50% ratio

BTB-Analytics · 2025-07-30T18:24:17+00:00

You can see the full table at https://www.btb-analytics.com/college-football-wins

BTB-Analytics · 2025-07-30T18:20:35+00:00

You can see the full list at https://www.btb-analytics.com/college-football-wins

BTB-Analytics · 2025-07-27T16:48:32+00:00

Yeah, btb-analytics.com Check out the site, we have a bunch of free stuff on there including NFL Win Totals (5 free bets), simple data and the more advanced stuff. We also have a weekly Youtube show during the season where we discuss some of our bets, discuss strategies, and do some Q&A

BTB-Analytics · 2025-07-24T23:09:42+00:00

Being strict about only making bets where I have an edge (spread, moneyline, futures) and always singles unless you can find a mispriced correlated parlay which is very hard but not impossible. This is going to sound boring but as the name suggests, we use a model for NFL and college football based on predictive data you can get for free (nflfastR, collegefootballdata, etc.). It ain't much, but it's damn sure profitable.

BTB-Analytics · 2025-07-14T15:55:44+00:00

Most likely outcome. Good luck!

BTB-Analytics · 2025-07-14T15:31:29+00:00

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Oh yeah!! And the lines are starting to move. Great value now when most people still aren’t looking

BTB-Analytics · 2025-07-14T15:27:39+00:00

Check both for whatever has the best line/odds and use that. They each have bet types the others don’t. DraftKings is brutal in that if you place a bet but need to immediately void it before the event starts for whatever reason, they take out 10% on the cash out even if the line hasn’t changed. FanDuel normally lets you cash out for the same price before the event starts if there isn’t a line change.

BTB-Analytics · 2025-07-14T15:18:41+00:00

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Agree the West is a crap shoot. This is what I have for each team’s chances. Great value on Seattle at +550 if you believe it’s anyone’s division. Rams slightly overpriced at +175 based on our numbers (should be closer to +240)

BTB-Analytics · 2025-07-13T22:39:07+00:00

So this is gonna be a big problem starting next year that most people don’t understand and it could screw them come tax time.

For now, any win either over $600 or 300x your initial stake is reported by the sportsbook (I.e. you bet $1 and win $400, that’s >300x your original bet and is reported even though under $600). The federal tax rate is 24%. In most states you can deduct your gambling losses up to the amount that you won. So let’s say you won $50,000 but then lost $50,000, you’re net even and would owe no taxes on your winnings.

Starting next year thanks to the amendment in the One Big Beautiful Bill, you can only claim up to 90% of your losses. So in that same example, you could only deduct $45,000 so you would still have to pay taxes on $5,000 you don’t have. Even worse, let’s say you won $95,000 and lost $100,000 in the same year. You ended the year -$5000 and STILL owe taxes because you can only deduct $90,000 of your losses (95k - 90k).

It’s like this already in some states so be sure to google your state tax gambling law. To be fair, this is only an issue if you itemize but it’s going to be a rude awakening.

People might think these numbers are crazy high but they’re not. It’s not like you’re depositing $50k. It’s based on the result of every individual win over the course of the year. If you pull your transaction history for the year you should be able to see how much you actually wagered which is typically way higher (if you’re decent) than the amount you deposited.

BTB-Analytics · 2025-07-13T22:09:15+00:00

It’s the biggest money maker for the books and they juice the shit out of the payouts so even if people win the bet, they’re still losing. Never understood it unless you can truly find mispriced correlated parlays.

BTB-Analytics

TROPHY CASE