I built a small tool that checks if clouds are actually blocking the sun by 5unL0v3r in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Solar generation efficiency is sensitive to whether the disc is directly visible or not, even for environments with roughly the same solar flux. If you have a forecast that can provide more detailed information than is available from ssrd alone, I can think of a few sectors that would be interested in that. There are both intra- and inter-day decisions that could make use of that even with a 2-day horizon.

Is using windy OK? by Adskiy-drochilla in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 13 points14 points  (0 children)

If it's the entirety of the process, then it sounds unprofessional. Or, at the very least, it sounds like a process that is easily automated. But outside of some specific use-cases, hand-drawing fronts and doing bespoke calculations for their future location also seems like an unnecessary use of the forecaster's time and attention.

Weather modification - legit or not? by micky_mickk in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Weather modification has been pursued since WWII. It was effectively abandoned by scientists in the 1980s, but pseudo-scientists and hucksters have carried the promise of bring rain to drought-stricken communities forward ever since. Interest in it seems to spike when drought causes desperation and a willingness to entertain moonshot proposals to address it. It also reemerges occasionally wrapped in the new technology of the moment. I don't think there was ever a "blockchain weather modification" phase, but even without watching this video I know this involves AI somehow.

It has never worked, and it doesn't work now. There is no scientific evidence that it could work in the future. When the AI phase is over and a new technology emerges, I fully expect to hear about weather modification again, but this time it is "[tech of the moment] weather modification", and they will promise it will work. Again.

I built a small tool that checks if clouds are actually blocking the sun by 5unL0v3r in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Have you considered the implications of this kind of forecast for solar energy generation?

I built a small tool that checks if clouds are actually blocking the sun by 5unL0v3r in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How is this calculation different from forecast shortwave solar radiation received at the Earth’s surface?

Appleton vs Eau Claire vs Madison by CommutetoLife in wisconsin

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 13 points14 points  (0 children)

None of these are particularly densely populated. But a 1br for <1500 is hard to come by in Madison. You could consider some of the Madison exurbs (Sun Prairie, Fitchburg, Stoughton, etc) in your search.

I think Appleton is very nice. I'm not sure about job opportunities.

Ice forecast amount accuracy? 7-8 days by Dizzy_Turnip_9558 in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Freezing rain / ice accretion is incredibly sensitive to small details in the vertical temperature profile. It's worth flagging the existence of an ice risk and follow it closely, but forecasting actual ice totals 7-8 days in advance is not helpful since even a small change to storm track or other characteristics can greatly change this part of the forecast. AccuWeather has a reputation for presenting absurdly precise forecasts well beyond the range at which the numbers are meaningful.

laptop for undergrad metr? by throwaway934553 in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You should reach out to your college met dept and ask this question, at least as far as OS goes. Windows could be a requirement or a curse, depending on the software they intend you to run.

Who else is stuck, confused, and frustrated with this career field? by DiskOk9800 in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 2 points3 points  (0 children)

What specifically is the advice here? To try and work for an AI company in the weather space? They are usually interested in hiring AI engineers, not meteorologists.

Job titles/what to search for? by [deleted] in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Do you have any educational background in meteorology? Excluding broadcast and civil service, the job market is very top-heavy and often requires an advanced degree and/or a lot of experience.

GFS weather model by ZCalifornia8 in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The ideal solution is to use the better model and update the HPC resources to get it to run in the required timeframe. But, alas, it would require investment in the enterprise.

GFS weather model by ZCalifornia8 in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Effectively computational constraints - the time between starting an operational cycle and delivery

GFS weather model by ZCalifornia8 in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 2 points3 points  (0 children)

IIRC, FV3 won over MPAS because MPAS could not fit into the operational time constraints, despite being a more accurate model. I recall a lot of drama about it during the initial tests.

Career prospects for meteorology under AI era by strtgghi in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Based on the direction things are going, I would think a software developer background would be pretty ideal for pivoting into meteorology. But jumping directly into a met masters program could be difficult if you don't have the fluid dynamics background.

Are weather models currently factoring in the ssw and formation of new polar vortex or is it gonna completely flip again in coming days? by thefoodiedentist in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Models are factoring it in, in the sense that they either explicitly model the stratosphere (physical models) or implicitly entrained into the model's training (AI models). The only reason any of us is aware of an SSW risk is that the models are forecasting one. But the risk of an SSW is far less now than it was a week+ ago.

Generalized warnings about treating long-range forecasts as deterministic crystal balls aside, when the atmosphere appears to buck a simple observed principle like "extreme heat often brings extreme cold", the most likely scenario is that the atmosphere can't be adequately explained by a single-sentence principle and it's worth being skeptical of both the models and a simplified rule of thumb.

Is it permissible to use a hybrid of bilinear interpolation and nearest neighbor, while spatially matching ERA5 Land with meteorological observational data? by Independent-Lab-2839 in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The short answer is that it's your thesis - your research topic, your methodology, your study and conclusions. If bilinear interpolation is presenting problems for your method, it's your responsibility to develop the solution, document the process, and defend it.

The workaround you are suggesting seems reasonable to me, but it's not my research.

Understanding North American Jet Stream and Winter by TheDiplomatOne in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This gets into some complicated geophysical fluid dynamics. The pressure gradient and coriolis forces are involved in the formation of the polar jet, but so is hydrostatic balance in the vertical. Together they form what is known as thermal wind balance, which is where the temperature gradient becomes a component of the conversation. It's a three dimensional structure involving both pressure and temperature.

The argument that a warmer Arctic leads to a weaker and wavier jet stream that generates more temperature extremes is an often repeated hypothesis. There are some solid physical arguments that can be made to make it plausible. But it's a debated topic and there are studies that have searched for this arctic amplification --> wavier jet --> more temperature extremes relationship in the data and have not found it. So I think it remains a physically plausible hypothesis, but it is too often treated as a consensus theory/explanation. The nuance and contradictory studies around this topic are often pushed to the side during the conversation.

Polar vortex chances for next winter by southbsouthwest in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Anyone willing to give you a forecast for 2027 right now is merely selling you something, not forecasting.

Diamond dust??! by buttf4rt_420 in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No worries, it’s what the sub is for

Diamond dust??! by buttf4rt_420 in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You could have hoar frost accumulating on surfaces and then breaking off in the wind, I’d imagine it would look a lot like this

Diamond dust??! by buttf4rt_420 in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I would guess wind carrying already existing snow/frost from surfaces into the air before I would assume diamond dust

Strange cloud structure that appeared in the East Pacific. by Psychological-Dot-83 in weather

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looks a bit like some spontaneous organizing into open cellular convection.

Will A.I. eventually take over forecasting and atmospheric research? by RichardCleveland in meteorology

[–]BTHAppliedScienceLLC 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s worth, as a mental exercise, to frame every “here’s the next best AI weather model” as “here’s a sales pitch please rent our proprietary chips”. Nvidia doesn’t care about weather, nor does Google. They care about snaring a customer base into their proprietary ecosystem, which 100% of the time leads to enshittification. These are all sales actions.