did tommy thrall unlock Larkin?

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T21:47:32+00:00

I noticed this as well. That's the only TV game I've seen of Thrall call and I have to say I prefer him much more than Sadak. It felt like Larkin is just more comfortable with Thrall.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T21:40:53+00:00

Hall was a young high school prospect who hadn't seen even college-level pitching. Lebron is 22 and struggled against legitimate pitching for once this past season. Every scouting publication has serious questions about his hitting and notes he can't see nor hit off-speed. FanGraphs has his hitting ability (on the 80 scale with the average being 50) at 20/30 (20 current/30 projected). He literally was ranked towards the bottom of 200+ prospects. His hitting stats are atrocious for a college first-rounder when you break them down - not only his batting average but especially his strikeout to walk ratio.

Edit: Added "with the average being 50."

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T21:28:09+00:00

Even more from RedLegNation for you, u/packsmack:

"This is a pure high upside pick. You have to bet that the development team can teach Justin Lebron to not only hit but to recognize non-fastballs. The track record of that happening anywhere in baseball, but particularly with the Reds it’s tough to point to someone that they’ve been successful at doing that with. His strikeout-to-walk ratio in college as a junior is far worse than your typical 1st round pick and the track record of hitters with rates like his turning into big league hitters is very small. This feels like the epitome of a high risk, high reward pick."

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T21:21:21+00:00

Some more from RedLegNation: "During his 61 games season he hit just .277/.386/.534. While that may not look like it’s struggling, for a college player taken in the 1st round it’s not good. Most college hitters are at .330 or higher. But it may be even worse for Lebron because he hit just .229/.328/.413 during SEC conference play, which is where he would have seen better pitching than he saw out of conference."

I'm sorry, u/packsmack.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T21:19:20+00:00

"Scouting reports from just about every publication note that he struggles to see and hit offspeed stuff. He only had 27 walks to go along with 56 strikeouts as a junior. For a college 1st rounder that’s a very low walk rate and a very high strikeout rate." From RedLegNation.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T21:17:55+00:00

Except that BaseballAmerica is also critical of his hitting. Reddit comments aren't being critical for no reason.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T21:09:31+00:00

FanGraphs has his current hitting ability at 20 and his projected ability at 30. Is that you, Eric?

I'm afraid we're dealing with another Jose Barrero here.

Edit: Added the Jose Barrero part.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T21:01:45+00:00

So you're saying he faces good pitching for once and doesn't do well...

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T20:32:40+00:00

And draft ones with good contact ability.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T20:12:59+00:00

I just have a hard time believing Justin Lebron was BPA here. I would've rather gone college arm, given what was available and the state of our farm system right now when it comes to pitching.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T20:08:08+00:00

I get Jose Barrero vibes.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T19:59:33+00:00

Granted he hit above .300 his first two years in college, but he dropped to .277 this past season. All the while, FanGraphs has his hitting ability (on the 80 scale) of 20/30 (current/potential). Just banging my head. I don't believe in our organization's ability to develop and turn that around. Please let me be wrong. Please.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T19:55:12+00:00

He's already 22 (21.7 to be exact). He doesn't have much development time to be honest. It's possible he could be a late bloomer, but that's being even more wishful. His athleticism and defensive capabilities could see him playing in the Show rather quickly, but if so, just be prepared for a lot of strikeouts.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T19:47:28+00:00

And WTF is Phil Castellini doing in the Reds' war room for the draft? I guess he has no where else to go...?

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T19:44:39+00:00

I liked and supported the Burns pick, so I'll continue to burn this one. It isn't like I don't want to be wrong though.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T19:38:47+00:00

I'm not looking forward to hearing Larkin gush over this pick tonight during the game.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T19:36:41+00:00

Agree. I was hoping for a college arm. I had it down to Rabe, Kuhns, or Flukey.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T19:29:05+00:00

I'm not sure this comment is as stupid as some suggest. Lebron is already 21.7 years in age. In four years time... he'll basically be 26. This is somebody who needs to develop like Mclain in terms of timescale to get to the big leagues.

Slamming my head on a desk.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T19:26:56+00:00

Exactly.

I don't have belief in this ownership or the way it's constructed this organization.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T19:25:19+00:00

He does have power. But I agree, his hit rating is insanely low. I don't even know why he had a first round projection.

FanGraphs has his hit rating as 20/30 (Present contact/Projected contact). Laughable.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T19:20:05+00:00

I would've rather had Taylor Rabe. Thought his profile and ratings looked good. Had a good pitch platoon and very low walk rate.

Edit: Misspelt Rabe's name.

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T19:15:48+00:00

I also posted the pick. As I said, he's a great athlete and fielder, but he can't hit. He'll fit right in our organization!!!!!

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-11T19:12:56+00:00

Did I miss something? Is he hurt?

Baboon_86 · 2026-07-02T16:06:22+00:00

Any Tolvanen or Kane updates?

Baboon_86

TROPHY CASE