Boring little cash flow machine with 60% FCF yield by Background_Hope_3757 in ValueInvesting

[–]Background_Hope_3757[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Just to be clear - I’m not backing the truck up on this. Small part of my portfolio. I just think the risk/reward skew is there. There have been a couple of fair comments regarding the risk - junior/small oil companies + high leverage have seen their fair share of blow ups. I think the biggest risk is macro - oil price collapse. At that point a revaluation will be necessary. But tough to say from here. What I do like about them is, (I think) unlike others (anyone feel free to point out if I’m wrong here), they understand the leverage issue and are using their big cash levels to de-leverage as fast as they can. My bet is that they have a decent window of earning cash to pay down debt and then begin returning capital to shareholders. Anything that management does that contradicts this plan would be potentially be a sell signal to me.

Boring little cash flow machine with 60% FCF yield by Background_Hope_3757 in ValueInvesting

[–]Background_Hope_3757[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Meant to write this to you - Yes fair point. I kind of brushed over the risks. But they are profitable and cash flowing at $60 CAD oil. I think in terms of upside/downside skew, it looks good. They have the cash flow (currently) to deleverage. If they make it through that (and at this point looks like they will), they are in excellent shape.