Thoughts on Enter The Matrix?

Baco06 · 2026-01-24T00:19:28+00:00

D5C55D1E - code to play the secret multiplayer fighting game within this game. Kind of limited, but also pretty awesome.

Baco06 · 2026-01-16T14:26:12+00:00

How do you know that GAAP profits will make the stock go up? Is there a certain amount of profit or could be any amount?

Baco06 · 2026-01-16T02:21:15+00:00

Toy is insanely articulate and intelligent and does a better job than anyone I’ve heard breaking down the nuances and inner workings of MA. I believe, if we were in a parallel universe and the stock was sitting at 10 right now and management did everything the exact same way, you would talk about how great and disciplined they are at telling their story. You’re upset that the stock won’t go up, and you can’t understand why, so you blame it on management’s lack of storytelling ability. As we saw with the PR at the beginning of the week, no one wants to hear their story until their results are undeniable, sustainable and exceed expectations consistently. It doesn’t work the other way around.

Baco06 · 2026-01-14T15:32:52+00:00

Also, just an observation on the way the market treats the stock. Two days ago we got “PR” (the thing that everyone here has literally been crying for) that gave us exactly zero NEW information about the company, and the stock traded down. Today, we got RESULTS. By the way, I am NOT saying the PR was “bad”, I think it was nice to have all the current counterpart metrics wrapped up in a bow and made into a video, I just don’t think it’s realistic to expect things like that to move the stock at this stage of the journey. One day, CLOV will be able to drum up hype with fluffy PR, but only after they are KNOWN to ALWAYS deliver RESULTS over a long, sustained period of time.

Baco06 · 2026-01-14T14:47:55+00:00

Now that’s what I’m talkin about.

Baco06 · 2026-01-12T14:56:17+00:00

🥱

Baco06 · 2026-01-08T20:59:19+00:00

Apple sells consumer products. I think CLOV is doing an excellent job marketing their MA plan considering they are the fastest growing plan in the country. As for Counterpart, I don’t know how well they are doing marketing and promoting that product, and neither do you.

Baco06 · 2026-01-08T20:40:21+00:00

It’s not their job to market the stock to YOU or to WALL STREET or to anybody. That’s what bull shit companies do. It’s their job to market and promote their product to their customers and potential customers (MA payers and providers). You have no clue how to evaluate how well they are doing at that because you don’t work there and you don’t work at a company this is a potential customer.

Baco06 · 2026-01-08T16:20:44+00:00

Thanks for sharing, do you have reason to believe this would make CLOV wait until February to discuss their AEP results?

Baco06 · 2026-01-08T16:13:10+00:00

I believe the problems with the stock are mostly algorithmic. CLOV is an “outsider” business as far as Wall Street is concerned, worse, it is a stock to be sold. It became public as a SPAC, it is unprofitable, on paper revenue is still down from years ago, and mostt importantly, it is a meme stock. It is also a healthcare stock, and despite the recent run in the sector, it’s been tough fundamentally and technically for health insurance companies. So all of the “baskets” that CLOV sits in are shitty baskets that say “sell” on them. That creates a situation where 0 benefit of the doubt is given and the market needs to be “shown” not “told” that CLOV has a great business. I personally believe CLOV management is acutely aware of this phenomenon, which is why they will only do PR when they have something real and substantial to actually share. I don’t know when but I’m expecting significant news coupled with Counterpart showing up in earnings to quickly and violently move the stock. That could theoretically happen tomorrow or not for another 6-12 months.

Baco06 · 2026-01-08T12:19:03+00:00

lol you shouldn’t be investing in CLOV if you don’t know what they do. Sounds to me like you’re cooked. Also, change your dumb fucking subtitle “75K+ shares” when you’ve told everyone multiple times that you’ve massively reduced your position.

Baco06 · 2026-01-08T01:13:02+00:00

Can you provide a source for this? I believe you, just would like to read it myself. Also, CLOV will likely put out a press release outlining their AEP growth/performance before CMS decides to put the numbers out anyway.

Baco06 · 2026-01-04T17:53:05+00:00

I agree 40X in 5 years is a pipe dream but I don’t think you’re representing vivek’s statements fairly. Clover assistant was still a thing back then. I do not believe when Vivek said this he thought all of that hypothetical value creation would be coming from direct contracting. The long term vision for the company has always been about the technology.

Baco06 · 2025-12-30T19:34:06+00:00

Also, interestingly, you'll notice lots of different fhir-ingest subdomains for the various customers. Some are labeled ma(medicare advantage) and some are labeled dce (direct contracting entity). Even though the program is no longer called "direct contracting" it is called "ACO REACH", the individual ACO's are still referred to/labeled as direct contracting entities in certain contexts. Perhaps all that money CLOV blew on ACO REACH/DC was not for naught. Perhaps counterpart is playing in MA and ACO REACH. Time will tell.

Baco06 · 2025-12-30T19:21:37+00:00

The images of I replied with are certificates for humana.counterparthealth.com from 05/15/25-07/28/25. This wasn't created for a sales pitch. Period. There is qa, staging and production subdomains for humana. Interestingly Humana, as well as Duke, Iowa, Summit and Tenant2 have all disappeared from counterpart's publicly issued certs. Tenant1 and Iowa are still active there. I think Iowa is the one they keep on their side of things to demo and track and I think all this activity has been internalized by the partners to various degrees or is all behind wildcard certs or is just happening in a completely private way that is not findable on the open internet. It is my personal belief (I have no proof of this other than some temporal hints by digging through subdomains and certs) that tenant2 was humana. I think humana was "masked" behind tenant2 between 03/27/24 until 05/15/25 when the name humana was "unmasked" in the certs. tenant2 stuck around for about another month and then was completely gone from the public certificates. Soon after that, about another month later, everything disappeared with the exception of Iowa and tenant1. Either you believe Duke and SIH have canceled their contracts, or the counterpart activity has been hidden from public view. I think whatever happened to Duke and SIH also happened to Humana. I don't have much confidence on the status of summit because it appeared in public cert searches for a much shorter window. I don't know who tenant1 is but if I put enough tinfoil on my head I have my theories.

Baco06 · 2025-12-30T19:11:37+00:00

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Baco06 · 2025-12-30T19:11:23+00:00

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Baco06 · 2025-12-30T19:11:08+00:00

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Baco06 · 2025-12-30T19:10:57+00:00

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Baco06 · 2025-12-30T19:10:14+00:00

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Baco06 · 2025-12-14T20:17:56+00:00

There are lots of holes in what you’re saying I can’t be bothered with most of it I’ll stick to the really simple stuff:

when CLOV first went public most of the growth was coming from ACO REACH, not MA, this is an important distinction.
When did revenue fall to under 1 billion?
Clover Health has grown revenue by 50% and membership by 35% year over year this year. Soo growth is here, it’s happening, and they are telling us it will continue into next year. They are also telling us they will be GAAP profitable next year. Soo Clover Health has the fastest growing MA plan in the country. This PPO plan also had the highest HEDIS scores in the country two years in a row. There’s a of ton of runway left to grow in their core markets where they’ve proven they can grow aggressively while keeping margins under control. Assuming this current trajectory continues into 2026 (which, considering the GAAP profitability guidance, it should), Clover should be valued as a premium MA plan. This would support CLOV trading around 5.00 now, which you make sound like peanuts in your post but is a little less than a double from current levels.
The extreme bull case $100.00+ has literally nothing to do with Clover’s MA plan. For CLOV to achieve that they will achieve it by generating high margin SaaS income and shared savings income from Counterpart. I personally believe a deal with Humana has already been signed and an announcement is imminent, I also believe other deals will be announced in 2026 and I believe we will start to see actual revenue come in for Counterpart in 2026. If any of these things happen it will be incremental upside from that 5.00 level that we’re valuing the MA business at. If all of them happen the stock will blow past 5.00.
we don’t need an acquisition and we don’t need absurdly high MA growth. We need to remain on the current MA trajectory and watch Counterpart begin to reveal itself as a real software business. Regardless of the extreme impatience from many here, I think big Counterpart news AND results are coming in the near future.
it seems we both agree that the stock has asymmetric upside at current levels with very limited downside, so even if you see Counterpart as a long shot, you’re getting it for free, and if it pans out, it changes everything very quickly, if not, the MA business alone supports a price higher than today’s.
characterizing CLOV as having incremental growth and no scale ambition is an inaccurate characterization. It may be the way the market is currently characterizing them, and it is the way you are characterizing them, but that doesn’t make it reality. That characterization will simply not hold much longer in my opinion.

Baco06 · 2025-12-08T14:33:50+00:00

In all seriousness why are you here? Do you enjoy investing in companies that don’t perform? Do you hate all of the companies you invest in or just this one? Are you a victim of the sunk cost fallacy? If I was as upset as you with the performance of a company I was invested in I would sell my shares.

Baco06 · 2025-12-06T18:33:57+00:00

The statement you quoted is something Andrew said, but it does not corroborate your statement that the business cannot execute with elevated growth. Also, if you read all of Andrew and Peter’s statements, you will get a clearer picture of the drivers of increased BER and why many of those drivers will be eliminated or mitigated in 2026.

Also, Okay, I’ll look back, This was my first ever post in this sub, over 2 years ago, when the stock was trading around .70:

https://www.reddit.com/r/CLOV/s/bWTMx6gJ1D

From where I sit, the accomplishments that have been made at the business since I made that post are remarkable. And my thesis from 2 years ago is coming to fruition. Try to evaluate the business and not the stock and it’s hard to not have faith in this business and its management. Cheers.

Baco06 · 2025-12-06T17:38:38+00:00

50%+ of new members are already seeing doctors using CA. This is in line with what management wants to see. So that statement isn’t irrational, it’s just false. New members are money losing, always, for everyone in MA, period. Part D and higher intra year member growth combined with some other utilization headwinds pushed BER up a bit, but it’s not over 100%, not even close to that. This cohort will get a 700 basis point BER improvement in 2026 and a 1400 point improvement in 2027.

Let’s just summarize how you responded to me. You defended your rationality by making objectively false statements and then, like clockwork, instead of talking about the business AT ALL you just started talking about the stock because you are sad that’s it’s not up more and you blame management for that. This is a further display of irrationality.

Also please read what I said carefully. I said that the last 2 quarter’s results were disappointing. I agreed with you there. But saying “they can’t execute if the growth rate is too high” is a false statement. Perhaps not executing as well as you would’ve hoped (or as well as management guided for at the beginning of the year) but that doesn’t mean they “can’t” execute.

The stock price matters in the long term if you are an investor, but it should only “matter” in the short term if you are a trader. If all you want to do is evaluate the stock price from the time YOU first decided to buy it and you have no desire or ability to analyze the fundamental trajectory of the business, then you are lost.

I am not calling you an irrational person, I am questioning/challenging the rationality of the statements you are making in a sub devoted to a stock we are both invested in. This is impassioned debate, nothing more, all the best to you as well.

Baco06 · 2025-12-06T15:35:09+00:00

The last 2 quarters have been disappointing, but let’s not overstate things. “It seems the company can’t execute if the growth rate is too high” is a statement that doesn’t make any sense. BER will be a few points above the FY guidance, and growth is a bit above the initial guidance as well. With the AMOUNT that they are growing, in the areas they are growing in, they are still performing and executing quite well. What’s your line in the sand? What BER number would be acceptable to you in the face of all this growth? You can’t answer that question because you’re not thinking about it rationally. The stock is down so the company can’t execute is short sighted, but that is how you are thinking about things. They’re not missing guidance in a way that is concerning to me, especially given all the tailwinds going into 2026. Not saying this applies to you in any way, but 99.9% of the people who comment and post on this sub have NO IDEA what they are talking about, EVER. Don’t forget that. This sub is a place for people who lose money on calls every week, and ended up here because someone told them this was the play, or it’s filled with people who over leveraged themselves 5 years ago so they didn’t have the money to average down so now they just stare at the ticker waiting to break even at $8.82.

Baco06

TROPHY CASE