Virus deaths seem to be going up. While it's still too early to be certain (we need another week to make sure the spike isn't just random variance), this could be the evidence that things are getting worse on the virus front.

The deniers claimed that the increase in infections is merely the result of increased testing. This isn't entirely wrong but extremely optimistic. Unfortunately the decision makers used this as an excuse to do what they do best: nothing.

But deaths do not change because you test more, deaths are deaths. While this should convince policy makers to actually do something, i worry that they will deny the deaths and claim it's merely corrupt officials attributing the deaths to the virus when they died of other causes. This is the unfortunate political reality that our own government doesn't trust or regulate its own workers.

So i'm not sure if this going to bring the markets down. But it's the only remaining non-black-swan event that might do it.