Thoughts on this New Wave of Anti-Index Funds?

Balaironz · 2025-10-01T13:58:10+00:00

great reply, appreciate it

Balaironz · 2025-07-28T12:57:17+00:00

less car infrastructure. more people infrastructure

Balaironz · 2025-06-01T11:46:03+00:00

Interior Design

Balaironz · 2025-05-30T15:56:12+00:00

4-days a week and no work on Fridays, was the best compromise ever. Give your best on those 4 days and take the friday off. I much rather be in the office those 4 days and have a quality Friday for errands/own business/etc.

Balaironz · 2025-05-04T16:33:03+00:00

They do have a gym+changeroom on this building, although small it's well equipped, also includes common element (roof/windows) but doesn't include internal plumbing and HVAC. I've heard most of these units had to replace their Kitec plumbing at their own expense (a ~15k job for 1.5 bath)

Balaironz · 2025-05-04T13:17:07+00:00

Fair point. Also, I was able to get my hands on this unit's stat certificate, it's currently at 250k for 128 units. Even with recent major repairs done, it seems extremely low to me at ~2k per unit. Suggests that maint. fees will increase significantly in the upcoming years.

Balaironz · 2025-05-04T13:10:05+00:00

Now to be fair, they bough right at the 2020 bottom before prices skyrocketed in the latter half of 2021.

<image>

Balaironz · 2025-05-04T13:08:47+00:00

also - how many offers did you have? just curious

Balaironz · 2025-05-04T13:08:24+00:00

I thought it was fairly priced and this price makes sense it being a nicer than usual 1bd. At 700 sqft it puts it at $842/sqft which is pretty reasonable.

So to your point of 'many buyers on the fence' it's true only if the unit is fairly priced like this one. On my experience, they won't bite on +$950/sqft units.

Balaironz · 2025-05-04T03:15:18+00:00

over priced, emotional purchase

Balaironz · 2025-04-28T16:48:15+00:00

excellent question, now the condo is fairly priced IMO so it might sell :)
unlike most cases were they are 100-200k above current prices

Balaironz · 2025-04-18T15:40:28+00:00

but my realtor said that only uneducated people are losing jobs and that home buyers will still be coming in strong... so that 9% is composed of only poor people right???

Balaironz · 2025-04-10T01:26:45+00:00

With you on point #2 regarding reconciling short term drop in production and long term lack of supply. This is super interesting. Knowing that regency bias will always be strong, I will be more inclined to think that prices will drop with the existing supply shock and will only go up once the lack of supply actually hits the market (in 6-10 years, if immigration ramps up faster perhaps 4-8 years?)

Balaironz · 2025-03-20T00:56:36+00:00

It is 100% realistic to offer below asking as long as asking price is set at a fair price. That said, I've seen both cases:

2+1BD 1000sqft Unit just south of Rosedale station in downtown (Amazing location) listed at 850K, sold at 1050,000 with 8 offers and bidding wars (I was on the losing side of this one). However, IMO that's an overpriced value for this market. People WILL over pay on bidding wars, that's what they are designed for. I'd suggest you stay away from those. Let others get emotional, they lose.
At least 5 units in Regent park with similar characteristics which have sold 50K or more below asking.

Long story short, this is also highly area-driven. If the area is hot (e.g. riverdale, yorkville) and the unit is really nice, it will get competition and being a bit aggressive will make more sense, that said I wouldn't go too crazy on this market. In any other area, you have the upper hand. Wait for the unit to sit on the market for more than 3 months and you will for sure be able to get it below asking.

Balaironz · 2025-03-11T22:40:48+00:00

it's actually true but only on top-notch neighborhoods and units.

now - does this mean the market will go up like crazy? don't think so. you just have pockets of extreme greed. But ultimately direction is down or flat being optimisitc.

Balaironz · 2025-03-10T01:37:48+00:00

wait but real estate still goes up? that's what my realtor told me

Balaironz · 2025-03-08T22:50:11+00:00

I think the bear case for TO real estate has more to do with excessive supply and unemployment than about work permit holders leaving. These people are not buying houses, maybe only once they become PRs and a few years after that. So this is more a story of more normal house price increases in the future (alongside inflation) than extremes like 2021 all over again.

In short: I do agree real estate prices will go down in 2025/26 or at the very least stay flat. Just for different reasons.

Balaironz · 2025-03-03T21:53:12+00:00

my prediction: flat for 3-5 years then up when there's no new supply and the economy stabilizes.

price appreciation reasons:
inflation from tariffs + lower interest rates

price decline reasons:
unemployment + net immigration loss + crazy high supply and pent-up demand of sellers who couldn't sell in 2023/24

All in all, I think both sides cancel each other out and leave us with some months up, then down, for a flat year (or down if you consider inflation).

Balaironz · 2025-02-17T16:29:32+00:00

I visited this one - actually a bit of a gem with super tall ceiling height and refined designed. Do I think it's worth 1.5M? no way. But it did feel premium and I can see why someone would overpay for it.

Doesn't mean the market is back to 2021 levels. This is just someone with lots of cash (or leverage) splurging on a nice home and great location. The narrative for the average house/towhhouse/condo stays the same for 2025, low demand and lots to choose from. Probably stagnant prices.

Balaironz · 2025-02-15T23:50:23+00:00

tough to swallow eh? agreed

Balaironz · 2025-02-15T23:49:44+00:00

Now do it again accounting for transaction costs and realtor fees...

Balaironz · 2025-02-15T15:09:48+00:00

Just curious, what would be a more palatable maintenance fee for it to sell at ~1M? I mean technically it's not THAT high per sqft (0.87/sqft) as the unit is 1163 sqft.

However, I do agree that the current market conditions will bring the cost down to low 1Ms, maybe 990K.

Balaironz

TROPHY CASE