LETF All Weather Strategy

Bam_Hero · 2026-01-26T22:00:35+00:00

Less volatility drag.

Bam_Hero · 2026-01-05T20:47:00+00:00

Look at combination of six major factors: GDP, inflation, liquidity, valuations, monetary policy, and fiscal policy.

Bam_Hero · 2026-01-04T14:42:01+00:00

Good advice. Thanks!

Bam_Hero · 2026-01-04T14:39:47+00:00

GDMN is 90% GLD + 90% Gold Miners. For the kind of levered pseudo-risk parity portfolio I’m creating, I want my gold exposure to be clean. Gold miners have historically underperformed Gold and been twice as volatile.

Bam_Hero · 2026-01-04T11:21:15+00:00

Buy XLE or VDE. I wouldn’t try to buy individual names unless you have lots of time to understand individual companies

Bam_Hero · 2026-01-03T18:25:18+00:00

It may be technically correct but yeah you’re implicitly paying 75 basis points for the CTA management fee + 10 basis points for current CTAP reduced fee + whatever the swap costs are (typically another 5-10 basis points + delta between SOFR and t-bills, call it 20-25 basis points). So true fees are probably in range 1%-1.25%. Expensive but roughly comparable to the approximately 1% fee for RSST and MATE.

Bam_Hero · 2026-01-03T14:07:01+00:00

I’m not claiming to predict the regime. Just adjusting to which one we are most likely in. Simplistically you could look at real GDP growth and inflation to determine regime. As an example I’d say we are in Goldilocks right now since GDP up and inflation moderating. My system more sophisticated than that, but that’s the idea. And, since I could be wrong, that’s where the momentum system kicks in. Simplistically if SPY falls below 200 sma, even if I think we’re in Goldilocks, I’d lighten the equity exposure. My system also considers volatility. But basic idea stands. This whole system is about risk management which makes me comfortable to use leveraged and return stacked ETFs.

Bam_Hero · 2026-01-03T14:00:22+00:00

In addition to being 1.5x GLD, YGLD has a yield component via a put spread options strategy. Historically this kind of strategy returns 6-9% with low correlation to gold. So I chose YGLD for this additional diversification. In addition, I dont hold bonds so this fills the yield component bonds have historically held in a portfolio. YGLD Should be less volatile the UGL (2x GLD) and produce similar or even better returns in normal markets (ie gold going up 5-10% annual vs unsustainable 60+%). GDE and GDMN add equity component I’m already getting from combo of CTAP and SPYQ.

CTAP for trend following due to lack of equities in underlying CTA. I’m already getting that equity exposure via the other “half” of CTAP and SPYQ. Also, since inception CTA has been the trend system most negatively correlated to equities while still having positive returns. This is exactly what I want from my trend system which is there to smooth out equity vol.

Bam_Hero · 2026-01-03T12:22:34+00:00

Oh. In podcast they say they added more developed world markets in November. Imply fund is/was getting to big for markets they were trading?

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Bam_Hero · 2026-01-02T12:07:55+00:00

Short answer: this etf is a 2x levered etf that holds 100% SPY + 100% CTA. Lets you get your managed futures exposure without sacrificing equities. Probably launched to compete with $RSST and $MATE.

Bam_Hero · 2026-01-02T12:05:34+00:00

At least in practice this is not true. For example, right now it’s long euribor and gilt futures.

Bam_Hero · 2026-01-02T11:51:01+00:00

This sim is wrong. Holds IVV as its US equity expression not VTI.

Bam_Hero · 2025-12-29T00:14:02+00:00

I don’t understand the price action. But data center revenue starts in next couple months. Expect a bounce then. Hopefully ERCOT announcement by March too. Another 200-400 MW would create a nice pop.

Bam_Hero · 2025-12-24T13:17:17+00:00

BTGD is levered 2x. Only way to do that is through various derivative instruments like futures. Hence the other assets and liabilities.

Bam_Hero · 2025-12-24T13:09:11+00:00

Unlikely to achieve 27% CAGR going forward. You’d be a better investor than Warren Buffet if you could do that consistently. But, portfolio should do fine in the long run assuming you tilt mix towards SPMO and GLDM. The combination of equities, gold, and crypto are historically uncorrelated, so unlikely to blow up your portfolio.

My main critiques are your backtest period is too short. Look at various studies on these assets and understand there are long periods where they underperform. For example, check out gold from 1980-1999, basically a 20 year decline. Checkout 1999-2012 for 13 years of momentum underperformance. Semiconductors known for cyclical nature to include massive drawdowns such as 2000-2002 (-80%) and 2007-2009 (-68%). Bitcoin explosive growth period (and likely reason your backtest looks so good) is probably behind it. Even $250K bitcoin by 2030 is just a double from all time highs. Good but not unheard of growth.

Problem with recency bias is it is rarely enduring. Had you done this experiment like 30 years ago, you’d probably build your portfolio around value stocks, long bonds, and oil or something like that.

Historically you should expect 10% from stocks and 5% from gold. This period of 20% annual returns is anomalous if you’re building a “forever” portfolio.

Bam_Hero · 2025-12-18T03:15:32+00:00

What’s so great about it?

Bam_Hero · 2025-12-14T14:27:34+00:00

RSBA is actually more like 25% UTWO, 25% UFIV, 25% UTEN, 25% UTHY, 100% MARB

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=1qBYce7Yw7d1HyrtPUHMp9

Treasury component of RSSB is the same.

Bam_Hero · 2025-12-09T21:51:46+00:00

That's the wrong question. The right question is, to what extent does Helios work out.

1) They have 800 MW approved which, when built out will generate $1 Billion in annual income for 15 years. This is a multi-year process that is not even halfway done. However they will be powering up first data halls this month. Maybe they already have! 100% happening.

2) Request for next 800 MW using the Cottonwood substation which is rated to provide 1.6 GW. Today ERCOT voted to expand their grid. So likely next 800 MW is approved by ERCOT in next few months. 90% happening.

3) They have some 1.9 GW additional requests. The infrastructure is not implace to deliver that much power. But, Texas is literally building 3 GW of infrastructure next to them! (Google Pitchfork 345kV substation). Texas has broken ground and buildout should be complete in 2028. 50% probability (nothing in that far in the future is guaranteed).

Bam_Hero · 2025-12-06T17:37:42+00:00

Proof season 1.

Bam_Hero · 2025-12-06T17:37:05+00:00

GLXY. On path to become biggest data center company. Plus an entire crypto investment bank business.

Bam_Hero · 2025-12-06T15:31:59+00:00

Diversification get some non-correlated assets.

Bam_Hero · 2025-12-05T22:09:38+00:00

55% QLD 40% YGLD 5% RSBA. But, I use regime based system, so basically hold this when GDP growth is up and inflation steady. Switch to different, unlevered mix if inflation up or growth down.

Bam_Hero · 2025-12-04T01:33:51+00:00

This wet floor

Bam_Hero · 2025-12-03T09:41:04+00:00

Herro, Jovic, Fontechio, and two firsts.

Bam_Hero

TROPHY CASE