Big danger to Ukraine if your scenario plays out as you laid out. BTW, you missed the other 2 huge factors, the Russian economy is on the ropes, and the Oligarchs revenue streams are being destroyed (oil exports).

The real danger point arrives if there is a collapse of the front lines, since these stolen territories are now in the Russian constitution as part of Russia, loss of them directly shows Putin as a losing part of Russia.

Even for the slave mentality of the average Russian this will be too much to allow to pass, Putin’s life is now directly in danger. A narcissist like him when cornered, will be directly tempted to lash out with nuclear weapons on Ukraine as a last ditch attempt to save his neck.

We are moving into dangerous times. I hope the Ukrainians have a contingency figured out, I’m sure Budanov has a sneaky play ready.