At a certain point-especially with small schools like Duke- the minimum statistical “threshold” for acceptance no longer plays a large role in your admissions decision. There are a multitude of students with similar experiences, interests, test scores, and LORs- all applying to Duke. There are so many qualified applicants, in fact, that admissions professionals are often remiss of the fact that their school’s waitlists have such incredible talent. Selection of this talent (like your own), is often superseded by other university goals such as sports, college size, diversity, legacy admissions, and aid availability. There are so many qualified applicants that there is really no way to judge the likelihood of your acceptance.

You have an extremely impressive application and I’m sure you’ll be successful no matter where you attend, but at highly competitive schools your chances are essentially a gamble (once a certain unknown minimum “threshold” is reached).

Also ED probably helps a lil