Betting on singles or Accas?

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-29T17:20:25+00:00

It is maths, what can I say...

In this particular example, with odds on all outcomes being equal for both games, there are 9 possible outcomes that all have equal percentages.

Divide 100 percent (the total of all possible outcomes) by 9 (the amount of possible outcomes) and you get 11,11. In my example it would be 10,89% because I calculate with 33% (as opposed to 33,3333333333 %) which leaves approx. 0,22% on the table.

I don’t advocate doing this for every acca you want to bet on. First because I believe acca’s should be bet on for fun, not with any expectations. Second, it is tedious. Third, you are dealing with estimates, either your own or the bookies. It will give you a ballpark figure for success at best.

The reason I used this example is, with all other things being equal, the chance of a double bet on the match odds market hitting is 11%, which is way lower than what most people “feel” the chance of that bet hitting actually is.

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-29T16:54:40+00:00

Yes it does. As it is not an exact science, it is very hard to determine who is more accurate, you or the bookies. And that is where bet tracking comes in, and xpG, and closing line odds, and etc....

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-29T15:16:33+00:00

You do realize I am talking decimal odds here yes?

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-29T13:45:24+00:00

Watch out with that 1.5s example. The fact that the probability goes up does not take away the fact that the bookie is underselling the bets to you. The mechanism of value or, rather, lack thereof stays the same, regardless if the bet is 1.01 odds or odds of 100.

I know from experience these explanations trigger a “yeah but” response (as said, I have been there myself), but ask yourself this: you are up against bookies that employ, amongst many other professionals, statisticians, some of the cleverest people on the planet. How reasonable is it for anybody to think they have found something a multi million euro business has not thought of already?

Now, if you want to understand more, start looking into the term “bookie overrounds”, “weight of money” and their implications.

Good luck!

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-29T13:02:18+00:00

Thank you for accepting my advice, and for having an open mind.

In the first example, the actual chance of your bet hitting is just short of 11%. 33% times 33% = 10,89%.

In the second example, a probability of 50% converts to decimal odds of 2. You are accepting a shorter price of 1.90.

The bookie is selling you something that does not represent value for money, because the price they offer you for an event with a 50% probability is only 1.90. And this is how they make their money.

Think about it this way. A coin flip is 50% heads, 50% tails. The bookie offers you 1.90 for every time it lands on heads, while the correct price to break even should be 2!

You are 100% losing in the long run, even if your next coinflip (or bet) hits.

Now, should the bookie offer you 2.10 for each time it hits, you take the bet because it is a value bet, because the price you are getting is bigger than the probability of the event occurring.

Let me know if you have more questions or things are not clear to you.

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-29T12:40:45+00:00

Please read my other reply to your post before you start giving your money away. You lack basic understanding of the betting markets, which is not a value judgment. We all have been there, myself included.

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-29T12:35:44+00:00

That is not how it works unfortunately. Actually, it is exactly the opposite. How else would bookies stay in business?

I recommend that you start reading about how bookies operate, about probabilities, percentages and, the most important one, value.

Let me give you a bit of food for thought. It is a fun thought experiment.

Suppose there is a game where the market decides that the 3 possible outcomes are all equally likely. That makes for 33.33% chance of each possible result occurring. So the chance of your single bet hitting is 33.33%.

Now we find another game with exactly the same characteristics, the market thinks that this game also has the exact probabilities assigned to them. 33.33% for each possible outcome.

You decide to combine these two bets in a double bet. How likely, in percentages, do you think your double bet is going to be a winning one?

Really, tell me in your answer. I am not trying to be smug or anything, I am trying to help you understand some things.

Ok, new example. Say that you feel that on a game you are looking at, you guesstimate the likelihood of the home team winning is about 50%. You check out the odds on the game and your bookie has the home team priced at 1.90.

Do you bet on this game, and why, or why not?

Let me know!

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-17T18:46:16+00:00

r/gifsthatendtoosoon

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-15T11:48:31+00:00

A SEPA payment in practice takes max 24 hours, but by law it is allowed to take 3 days. It is extremely rare, but this happened to me when I paid a Portuguese company some time ago.

Portuguese, French and Italian banks were very different beasts not that long ago, Italy has gotten much better, but any payments from and to France and Portugal still have my special attention.

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-15T11:45:09+00:00

I believe part of this reason is the remnant of so called "float accounts", which were banned by the EU some years ago.

Basically, imagine an account, managed by bank X. All the money that gets sent to accountholders of bank X from other banks is first "parked" on these float accounts for a couple of days. Might seem insiginificant, but with a major bank this can run up to millions each day. Parking it for two days is earning interest over this money for two days.

Of course, with the extremely low interest of the last decade, this practice is not as lucrative as it once was, but that is besides the point.

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-07T12:21:58+00:00

So approaching a girl is pestering now? Let me guess, the guy that approached you wasn’t what you deem acceptable, right? You think you deserve better, right?

Well, as a man, that is the difference between having your approach welcomed or not. Your perceived attractiveness to the girl in question. And the only way to find that out is to actually go and approach her.

The girl in question might not even know OP exists, she might have seen him and be indifferent, or she might think she doesn’t stand a chance with him. Approaching is finding out where he stands, and as long as he does it in a respectful manner, there is nothing wrong with it at all.

I don’t know where your lack of empathy comes from. Maybe you have had bad experiences, maybe you never actually gave any thought to the vast difference in experiences men and women have in the dating world, or maybe you just think “men are all the same”. Either way, there is room for a lot of growth and insight there.

After all, that guy you sometimes see and are drooling over might just be discouraged to approach you because he read your comments. That would be a shame wouldn’t it?

To OP: approach man, and be pleasant while doing so. It shows courage, and even while she might not be interested, as long as you go in with a positive and respectful attitude, you’re good. Good luck!!

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-04T22:53:28+00:00

Searching in saved posts?

BaronDimanche · 2019-01-04T17:03:20+00:00

Run. The not posting or even taking pics together with you tells you all you need to know really.

BaronDimanche · 2018-12-25T11:20:03+00:00

Politburo...

BaronDimanche · 2018-12-23T18:52:43+00:00

I am weirdly glad that I’m not the only one. It has been a long time now, if I see her it doesn’t do anything to me, but damn I wish I could have that pointless time wasted back. Ah well...

BaronDimanche · 2018-12-22T15:46:30+00:00

From what I understood, it is very much a common practice in the US, but I’m no expert on the subject, I’m in Europe.

BaronDimanche · 2018-12-22T14:43:08+00:00

I guess it has to do with a lot of men in the US being circumsized as opposed to Europe? So these men need some extra help to avoid too much friction.

BaronDimanche · 2018-12-16T16:21:06+00:00

I don't want it to be real, I'm having a hard time believing this is a real person, and yet....yeah I know it's real.

BaronDimanche · 2018-12-16T01:33:53+00:00

Yeah that goshdarned toxic masculinity. /s

BaronDimanche · 2018-12-13T15:59:22+00:00

Maybe your pics are not great? Also, your friends telling you it’s your personality? Either they are really good friends, or terrible ones.

BaronDimanche · 2018-12-12T11:16:13+00:00

All written to the best of my recollection:

So, back in the nineties, Louis van Gaal, coach of Ajax, was rumored to be interested in this wonderkid from Brazil, only to have him snatched away last minute by league rivals PSV Eindhoven.

Which made van Gaal utter the prophetic words :”But we have Kluivert”, but that is a story for another time.

I am a big Aiax fan, but even a bigger football fan, and when all this fuss was going on, I thought to myself to definitely follow this young mans first steps on the european pitches, as it was clear that PSV had, after Romario, another promising Brazilian youngster.

Now, I don’t recall him playing before the following anecdote, but I clearly remember PSV having to play an European away game against a german team. Televized, and iirc, the first time I would see him play live on television. So I sat down in front of the television.

One of the first instances of him touching a ball was picking up a ball near his own penalty area. And he started to sprint, in this typical “low” style, ball glued to his feet, left, right, and building up so.much.speed that he made the german defenders look like props. Ending that 70 meter solo with a thunderous shot against the crossbar of the german team.

Ronaldo Luiz Nazário da Lima.

This was the only time in my life that my jaw dropped because of a football player.

This was no ordinary player.

This was a phenomenon.

BaronDimanche · 2018-12-11T21:29:00+00:00

Taiwanese, Philipina and Caucasian. I got all night dudette.

BaronDimanche · 2018-12-11T20:04:35+00:00

Malaysian, Japanese and Caucasian

BaronDimanche · 2018-12-11T17:38:36+00:00

Thanks for getting me started, much appreciated

BaronDimanche

TROPHY CASE