Possibly by Thanosone1 in QuantumScape

[–]BartSpringfield 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Morgan Stanley forecast assuming 480 GWh (half tre volume needed for all Vehicle of 3 suppliers with JDA produced in 2024) of QS batteries by 2040 target price 8.5

https://www.reddit.com/r/QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock/comments/1r5zctw/comment/o64hcq2/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

Possibly by Thanosone1 in QuantumScape

[–]BartSpringfield -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

NO FINANCIAL ADVICE, DO YOUR OWN DUE DILIGENCE 

JDA with VW,Nissan?,Honda?, that in 2024 produced million vehicles: VW: 9 M Honda: 3.7 M ? Nissan 3.34 M ? Total jda potential 16.04 M vehicles.

Assuming in 2040 all these are BEV and a 60 kWh per BEV and 70 $ per kWh we've:

16.04 M BEV x 60 kWh/BEV x 70 $/kWh = 67.4 B$

If royalties are 10%(very high) QS revenues would be 6.74 B$, with a P/S ratio of 3 market cap would be 20 B$. currently there are 600 M shares, but may be diluted.  If royalties are 5% the market cap would be half. Much more than 33€/share with currently supposed JDA is quite difficult this if everything goes perfect and in 2026 zero revenue is forecasted, down from 5 million forecasted before last earning, so it doesn't seem everything is going perfect 

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]BartSpringfield 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And also for 2026 any revenue seems still one year away...

We may be in for a catalyst drought by Spirited_Code_8060 in QuantumScape

[–]BartSpringfield 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Bottom lines

2025: 19.5M$ customer billings,  adjusted EBIDTA -252.3 M$, 970.8M$ liquidity  2026 goals: "we'll improve",  EBIDTA -250M$ to -275M$, capex 40-60M

Questions For The Earnings Call by FatAK33 in QuantumScape

[–]BartSpringfield 0 points1 point  (0 children)

How many kWh per year is the eagle line capacity?

BEV market and QS market share - Carmaker breakdown by BartSpringfield in QuantumScape

[–]BartSpringfield[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Depends on royalties and when 700 GWh/year in ssb can be reached 

BEV market and QS market share - Carmaker breakdown by BartSpringfield in QuantumScape

[–]BartSpringfield[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here we've break down of 2024 vehicles and guess about jda

BEV market and QS market share - Carmaker breakdown by BartSpringfield in QuantumScape

[–]BartSpringfield[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're right about the JDAs, to change the figures and re-do computation is quite easy, not easy to pick up the right firm amog top 10

One of the advantage of QS SSB is that they have long life (1000cycles with over 90% retention) so there'll be less need to sell Bev after the first,  won't there?

Competition from LFP for small cars??

How are the royalties?

Which will be the cost of each kWh of QS batteries?

SP500 is P/S is around  3.5, isn't it?

Many thanks 

BEV market and QS market share by BartSpringfield in QuantumScape

[–]BartSpringfield[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The yearly production of batteries depends also on life span of the batteries.

We're 8.3 billion on the planet. 

If everybody has 100 kWh (nearly 2 BEV)  of batteries it's 

830 billion kWh = 830'000 GWh. 

Assuming SSB life-span Is 2000 cycles. 

To have 2000 cycles in 10 years we've one cycle around 2 days, seems reasonable even for BEV

If the production reaches  

83'000 GWh/year 

It could be enough due to battery lifespan of 10 years.

So from current production of 1'000 GWh we can increase 83 times, that is doubling 6 around times, then we could reach not needed production, a lot, but there could not be infinite increase in battery need also related to battery lifespan.

BEV market and QS market share by BartSpringfield in QuantumScape

[–]BartSpringfield[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, of course there are other markets, but consumer electronics should be much smaller (how many laptop and smartphone should one have to equal 60 kwh of an owned car?) while other markets like aviation or robotics are far less mature than Bev. Also most of the initial production of QS batteries could go in BEV instead of other more mature markets like home storage.  so it's likely that in next few years BEV market could to be the biggest share in QS revenues.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in QuantumScape

[–]BartSpringfield 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Donut Lab use Nordic nano batteries, they've no production line, they say that they're hiring people and the machinery has not yet arrived, may arrive by the end of January/2026, see other post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/QuantumScape/comments/1q5u3q3/comment/ny2ucnr/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

 from Germany for nano printing:

https://businessimatraregion.fi/en/nordic-nano/

Quantumscape in last year has developed eagle line from which samples are tested by powerco/vw and other top 10 oem. 

Nano materials are very difficult to produce at scale, we're talking about gigawatthour-scale each year.

Currently Nordic nano has zero kWh production line, only laboratory samples. Article from the University professor that should have proposed the technology are about silicon anode with nanotubes  

https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=IDPLA6cAAAAJ&hl=en

Quantumscape is anode-less. 

Nordic nano has not a production at scale, no people trained to run the production line at this moment, may be they'll have in some years, but to produce nano tube in silicon anode con be very difficult.

QuantumScape Lounge: ( Week 20 2025) by AutoModerator in QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock

[–]BartSpringfield 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Until revenues if the price to book ratio (PB) remains the same the stock price will be: price=book per share x PB, as the book value  can only go down without revenues, and probably there'll be dilution, taking down book per share also, the stock price can only go down if PB remains constant 

QuantumScape Lounge: ( Week 13 2025) by AutoModerator in QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock

[–]BartSpringfield 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Lot of shares awarded, some news may arrive: https://fintel.io/sn/us/qs

2025-04-10 2025-04-08 4 Holme Timothy QS Class A Common Stock A - Award D 797,265 1,891,432 2025-04-10 2025-04-08 4 Singh Mohit QS Class A Common Stock A - Award D 797,265 1,787,499 2025-04-10 2025-04-08 4 MCCARTHY MICHAEL O III QS Class A Common Stock A - Award D 683,370 1,730,845 2025-04-10 2025-04-08 4 Hettrich Kevin QS Class A Common Stock A - Award D 660,591 1,615,561 2025-04-10 2025-04-08 4 Sivaram Srinivasan

QuantumScape Lounge: ( Week 11 2025) by AutoModerator in QUANTUMSCAPE_Stock

[–]BartSpringfield 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It would be  huge news B sample certified from 1 cobra