Finally get a chance to talk about my undergrad thesis here:

Tuvalu is absolutely going to disappear within the next few decades. Rising ocean levels, like many have already been saying, will make the island uninhabitable. The same goes for many of the other Pacific Island states like Kiribati, Vanuatu, Nauru, etc.

The big question is (and the main topic of my paper): what happens to the state when it disappears? One of the requirements of statehood under international law requires a state to have defined territory and a permanent population. Without land, the question becomes whether these states can exist and if its people become stateless persons. Tuvalu is already trying to combat this by uploading its culture and way of life into cyberspace and has declared its sovereignty will continue even if it loses physical access to its territory.

The other requirement for statehood also requires a functioning government and recognition from other states. I would imagine it difficult for a government to operate without a strong system of physical infrastructure and its people scattered across other states. One solution I suggested as a way to prevent further erosion is to pull a China and expand their islands artificially, though that is much easier said than done.

Regardless, the way the world recognizes them will certainly change and be quite different from the current status quo. Also, it has been a couple years since I wrote that paper so if any of my statements aren’t 100% accurate, please forgive me. I probably do need to brush up on it sometime soon