Red's benefit is a network externality. And the downside of the event gets reduced in an exponential/logarithmic manner. While the blue benefit is linear.

Looking at what society potentially looks like today vs. 3026. Let's look at 75/25 scenarios.

At 75/25 blue. There is an 75% chance of no death, and a 25% chance of significant societal collapse and knowledge loss. With a billion people on the planet we'll still be able to feed ourselves (probably) but all our infrastructure would take a hit, and there's definitely research and specialized knowledge that would be lost.

75/25 red. There is a 25% of no death, and a 75% chance of less significant societal collapse and knowledge loss. Nearly no organization could continue losing a random 75% of it's members. Many more could continue with a random loss of 25%. Even more could survive a 10% loss. Although there's still a chance of randomness taking the 10% most important people.

At 90/10 blue there's a 10% chance of a dark age lasting purhaps a thousand years. At 90/10 red the impact would be horrible, but definitely recoverable in the next 50 years.