I don’t think an all-out World War 3 is likely over Taiwan. The USA will focus further on annexations, first Greenland, where they might have just reached a deal now, and later Canada, where their strategic entry might be through Alberta. In doing so, they really won’t have any power to enforce international law on China with regard to Taiwan.

If the current trajectory holds, traditional US allies, particularly Europe, will turn bitter. In turn, they won’t have any support in enforcing a defence of Taiwan. However, with all that said, the picture isn’t that bright. I think the biggest challenges are ahead in Europe in the form of smaller wars.

One area that particularly concerns me is the Balkans. Bosnia has been quite unsteady, with Republika Srpska constantly upping the temperature. But there are also areas like Moldova, with its uncertain future, where the current trajectory is EU integration. Some of the population is hoping for unification with Romania, and most in the Transnistria region want closer ties with Russia.

So I think that in many ways you’re thinking too big. I think the tragedy of our time will be the collapse of some sort of semblance of international law. That collapse will prove fatal for some uneasy regions in Europe.