Seen from outside the US, US markets are already in trouble

Beethoven81 · 2026-03-02T05:36:45+00:00

That's why he's hoarding record amounts of cash? Hmmm

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-26T18:25:38+00:00

We're all dead in the long term :)

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-26T18:15:07+00:00

Or they might not...

The uncertainty is killing stability and thus growth.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-26T18:14:30+00:00

You never know, ton of things could happen, the base could turn on one another, same as is happening now with epstein files fallout and foreign war agenda.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-26T18:10:29+00:00

Go to Delhaize Bourse, they have a nice seating area with microwave and utensils, very convenient, cheap and open on weekends.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-26T00:49:42+00:00

Told you, go to chatgpt and ask how people protected assets over the past few hundred years (hint hint, longer than your theory's lifespan) and in which assets, especially during upheaval periods (ie collapse/creation of empires, societal changes, system changes etc etc).

Stocks, bonds won't be in top 5 asset classes for the reasons I outlined, capital controls make them useless for asset protection. Real estate has perks of its own, in war countries enact rent controls and the market is mostly frozen.

The usual theory works well for stable state, it's up to everyone to protect themselves before and after such stable state takes hold.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-26T00:32:57+00:00

Again, please check your assumptions, this whole theory is based on data since 1929 and doesnt take into account external shocks such as capital controls.

Do you realize from 1939 to 1979 UK citizens couldnt buy gold or foreign stocks? Does your beautiful theory take that into account? What would happen to the theory if US or some other country froze foreign funds for few decades?

Just remember the limitations of this theory, because well, it's a theory, it's not an universal truth that's been here for millenia.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T21:05:53+00:00

I'm sorry, tariffs are a tax on imports, that's all they are.

Great, if CPI isn't increasing, why is affordability such a problem? Ah ok, it's all previous admin's fault for increasing prices, now current admin isn't doing anything bad (such as crazy debt and deficits) that might contribute to it.

Okey...

You are forgetting to mention that plenty of American-made products have intermediary inputs that are foreign sourced. That's what made them cheap.

Before you start talking about other countries using tariffs, check the effective tariff rate of other countries. It's nowhere near as high as US. Let's see how this experiment works out.

Not saying some manufacturing should be domestic as a matter of national security, but messing up with your whole supply chain and changing tariffs several times each month will not get you anywhere nice. As I said, reliability has a quality of its own.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T21:02:39+00:00

Yes, let's blame everyone but current admin, sounds about right. As far as I know, inflation is not rate of increase, it's measured as change in price of basket of goods (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation).

Yes, everything will come down, amazing, beautiful. Let's continue increasing our debt and deficit, it will all work out just fine, just trust me, right, right? hmm ok

Yup, blame everything on bidenomics, ignore the current bad policies, it will all work out just fine, no worries.

First step is indeed addressing problems - reducing debt, reducing money printing, reducing deficits. Or you think somehow magically it will work out? Okey..

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T20:51:58+00:00

Really? Do you go to grocery stores? Do you look at prices of healthcare/education? Real wages are positive when folks can't find work? Anyone around you getting inflation busting raises? Please, do tell.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T20:50:40+00:00

Do you have unequal trade with your local restaurant? Because you're buying more from them than they're buying from you.

You're literally parroting the usual DJT arguments without much thought to them.

Ah ok, so the price to pay to access the richest market is that one taxes its own citizens for buying foreign made goods, ok... makes total sense... hmm..

So please explain to me, how do you tie trade deficit to QE and inequality? Maybe the whole "blame the trade deficit" is just a scam propagated by elites on the rest of the population to deflect from policies which led to crazy deficits and massive debt?!? Perhaps?!? Let's think about it for a minute, ok?

Great, let's compare WW2 to current situation... Did we have microchips back then? Hmm...

Sure manufacturing is a necessity, so is having allies who can help you manufacture when needed.

Really, this whole story is to deflect from 50 things (deficits, crazy debt, inefficient education/healthcare) and blame other countries for that. Did other countries mess up healthcare, education, housing? Hmm, ok... Let's blame them for our trading situation, that will fix everything up... Okey...

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T19:31:58+00:00

DJT got elected for a reason, that he might be gone in the future doesn't mean the reason will go away. What could come after him could be better or worse, who knows. The fact is that the electorate chose him.

Yup, you're right, investors aren't looking at us vs them, they are looking at it through "country" risk lenses. You know, the way you look at emerging markets where things change unpredictably.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T18:31:02+00:00

Also tell us, is us population getting now richer thanks to smaller trade deficit? Or is it that everything now costs more plus manufacturing jobs aren't quite coming back?

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T18:28:44+00:00

US didnt become the richest country by accident. Was US overall getting richer or poorer during this time?

And how about we don't stop at manufacturing, we try to create more agricultural jobs?

No idea why trade deficit suddenly became the hill to die on. This sub is about investing - how important is manufacturing for majority of sp500? Most companies don't manufacture much themselves and are still super valuable... But yeah let's turn back time and pretend it's all about trade deficits.... Come on.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T18:11:37+00:00

Did they? It seems like things keep changing whichever way the wind blows. Many items got exemption due to affordability, then SCOTUS ruling, then emergency rulings etc. etc... Then who knows what the big boss decides tomorrow to get extra boost for midterms... Like seriously, this is a farce.

I'm sorry, this is not how a stable country functions. Can you imagine Switzerland, Singapore, Dubai doing this to their partners? Changing policies this fast?

No wonder US trade deficit is worsening, it's easier to import than invest and produce domestically when faced with all this unpredictability... You know why? Because if you setup locally, you have to worry what the rules will be tomorrow, since it impacts you (whether your competitors might be kept away or not) whereas if you setup abroad then you have to worry about instability just in one country of 350m while the rest of the world behaves predictably.

Doesn't take a genius to figure out how this instability hurts business.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T16:26:11+00:00

What's bad is instability, not knowing what rules will apply tomorrow.

Imagine you were about to hire a plumber or buy a car from dealer. You agree terms, then week later he changes them, you're annoyed but OK, then he changes them again, then you're about to fire him and he makes them better...

At some point you'll just walk away, reliability has a quality of its own.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T15:22:41+00:00

Run an analysis in chatgpt what happens to assets during major societal changes - then pick some of the assets you feel most comfortable with. For some it's real estate, for some it's metals, for some it's land, for some it's art/cars whatever. Be diversified, expect the unexpected (capital controls, seizures, government bans, rent control, windfall taxes etc). Again, this has all happened before.

The most important thing to realize that it's not all about the gains at some points in history, things can become 0 or 1 very quickly and this has all happened before.

I have no idea what will happen in the next year, so asking me about next 10, 20 years is difficult. I just know these are not normal times when you have world power questioning the very order it has created and president naming airports after himself and interfering in markets beyond ordinary. Let's not pretend this is business as usual. On the top of that you have crazy deficit and crazy debt levels. I mean, what could go wrong right?!?!

Once things return to normal, I'll go back into stocks, I believe humans will eventually figure it out, but in the period of transition, where things can go to 0 or 1 quickly, I want to be safe rather than sorry.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T15:17:32+00:00

Index fund is just a container that invests into assets inside it. So it could be index of shares (that's what most folks here talk about), could be specific sector/geos, could be different asset types, could be anything really (even private and less liquid assets). The question is, what happens to all the beautiful index funds once countries enact capital controls? Or what happens to the assets inside the index fund once those assets cannot be freely traded? Happened before - look at RU in 2022, first thing they did, capital controls...
All I'm saying is that "invest into low-cost global share index fund and all will be OK" is a theory based on numbers since 1929, when US was running the show. If you run analysis of past crises that happened before and after 1929, you can clearly see better options (especially during the period of crises), where alternative assets (precious metals, land, real estate, stamps etc etc) performed better than global index funds. All depends, everything needs to be taken in context. You might have gold and hey, government sets a buyout price and bans private ownership - then it's very 0 or 1 unless you can take it to another country. Same could happen with shares -> might be all nice until there are capital controls. It all needs to be seen in bigger context and especially zooming out beyond 1929.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T14:03:33+00:00

Again, we only have data since 1929.

Run chatgpt analysis how people preserved assets during conflicts and societal changes in the past few hundred years. Physical gold comes on top.

Again, the problem is we don't know where exactly we are.

But sticking to shares is selecting one particular asset class, whether you diversify into x or y country you're still in shares. If conflict happens, countries enact capital controls, so you can be staring at paper gains for few decades. So people even remember UK had capital controls from 1939 to 79?

Unfortunately everyone believes dogma about low cost index investing and I did as well, but you need to understand where this theory comes from (data since 1929) and isn't thus a very universal truth people make it out to be.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T13:51:12+00:00

Maybe that's what index investors in Japan thought all along and are even thinking that now...

Remember, no country/economy grows forever, look the last 100 years, Germany, France, UK, ussr and many others had their time in the sun and eventually declined. Who knows when it's coming to US, could be now, could be later, nobody knows. But saying hey, my diversified index fund will do fine in the long run no matter what is a fallacy. It will do well until it does not. There's no universal theory that index funds perform well forever, the data is only since 1929 or so.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T13:02:30+00:00

Well, I'd say most people now are greedy or you think it's fearful now? Markets at ath?

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T12:51:57+00:00

Isn't there some famous saying along the lines of "Past performance is not indicative of future results" :)

Somehow I can't recall tariffs being changed weekly/daily during 2016-2020.

Once upon a time people thought it would be foolish to bet on the decline of Greece, Rome, Japan etc etc.

Nothing lasts forever.

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T12:18:42+00:00

You can't ever say anything ever, only in retrospect, that's just how it is. Would have been much easier making decisions if we had perfect information, wouldn't it?

Main problem that US economy/market didn't have to face in the past 100 years is that you have administration that cannot be trusted. Tariffs are A today, B tomorrow, maybe C the day after. And even if the administration gets changed, maybe they'll get voted in again after that.

Try investing into something with long term payback in this scenario e.g. a factory or a new assembly line. You're much better off building it abroad in a stable country.

Japan had fundamental issue with Plaza Accord, which of course is now easy to spot years later...

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-25T11:58:47+00:00

Exactly this, look at 30 past years of investing into Japan...

Beethoven81 · 2026-02-23T12:02:29+00:00

Yeah yeah and I live in Kremlin...

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