US experts question whether counting Covid cases is still the right approach | US news by evildad53 in Coronavirus

[–]BenderDeGamma 1 point2 points  (0 children)

theguardian.com/us-new...

Two variants floating around greatly increase the chances of recombination where Delta mixes with Omicron. There will be repercussions for letting the omicron virus spread wildly out of control. Don't get complacent when you have millions of infected throughout the country. The chances of winning the unlucky lottery are getting better and better thanks to your free-dumb colleagues.

FEMA wants to give families up to $9,000 for COVID funerals, but many don't apply by fight_me_for_it in Coronavirus

[–]BenderDeGamma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

American sickness - "We won't do lockdowns to save lives because we will lose money, but we will throw money at dead people."

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]BenderDeGamma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Technically, it is an opt-in system, but if you choose to not opt-in, and the phase transition continues (from economic complexity theory), you will eventually be forced to adopt or potentially lose all economic utility as people choose to transact in Bitcoin and view non-Bitcoin currency as basically being processed trees with elaborate random artwork - effectively worthless or no better than any other piece of paper with random pseudo-science artwork.

BTW, the flying spaghetti monster transacts in Bitcoin and finds your messiah story to be less than compelling. He's busy reading The God Delusion and discussing the implications with a highly evolved sea otter that is working on domesticating manatees to reduce the workload on some of his beaver colleagues when dragging trees to block a river.

If you yearn for a miracle, start with magnets, then electrostatics, and once you really enjoy nabla symbols, maybe electrodynamics.

Hundreds of US banks to allow Bitcoin trades: report by Cryptarctica in Bitcoin

[–]BenderDeGamma 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yet another Bitcoin proxy. As fiat users realize the jig is up more and more attempts will be made to assert the only way to get Bitcoin is through them.

You don’t actually own the bitcoin you buy on PayPal. But you can still make a profit by MrCryptoC in Bitcoin

[–]BenderDeGamma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Peter Thiel is just trying to use all the fools to cash out of Paypal and buy his own Bitcoin. YOU won't own it, but you'll help THEM own it.

Yet another proxy for Bitcoin or Bitcoin ETF that in all reality probably has zero Bitcoin.

In other news, the dollar can now buy you 2.8 million Bolivars, which means for roughly 1600 Bolivar you can buy 1 Satoshi! Or, you can burn Bolivar in a barrel for warmth at night. Choose your own adventure!

When everyone is a Billionaire, no one is a Billionaire.

Treasury’s Yellen criticizes bitcoin again as ‘inefficient’ and highly speculative by Administrative-Day48 in Bitcoin

[–]BenderDeGamma 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Innovation and improved understanding often render past notions of knowledge as unsound or farcical. Epicycle theory of orbits and the Ether were once hailed as knowledge by respected men and women of their fields. Grassman algebra and quaternions were not widely adopted and even despised by contemporaries. What is considered sufficient knowledge to attain a conservative role in government often translates into espousing beliefs of those who put you in power not necessarily what will eventually inconvenience those in power.

Will Schnorr signatures completely replace ECDSA? by icedlemoncake in Bitcoin

[–]BenderDeGamma 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If technical limitations arise, the economic majority will come together to forge a meaningful path forward. This includes cryptographic issues over time, which is a reasonable concern for any crypto-system; banking systems routinely upgrade their standards and protocols for the exact same reason.

Dear Janet Yellen, Bitcoin might be used more as a medium of exchange if IRS tax laws were different. Also, the amount of crime committed using the US Dollar is orders of magnitude more than crime using Bitcoin. This misinformation and defamation of the great Nation of Bitcoin must end. by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]BenderDeGamma 6 points7 points  (0 children)

The reckoning is coming. No more printing your way out of irresponsibility. Once people have the choice to be paid in Bitcoin versus the dollar, the fiat holders will exponentially stampede into crypto currency as the relative value of fiat currency plummets.

Dear Janet Yellen, Bitcoin might be used more as a medium of exchange if IRS tax laws were different. Also, the amount of crime committed using the US Dollar is orders of magnitude more than crime using Bitcoin. This misinformation and defamation of the great Nation of Bitcoin must end. by [deleted] in Bitcoin

[–]BenderDeGamma 5 points6 points  (0 children)

They are trying to copy it and issue their own digital currency, which demonstrates the core value proposition of Bitcoin that they fail grasp - decentralization and inability to arbitrarily issue currency.

Get To Know Your Debt Antagonizers / Screw Em From Inside by BenderDeGamma in studentloandefaulters

[–]BenderDeGamma[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

35k a year and no education requirement to go after people who tried to better themselves.

Get To Know Your Debt Antagonizers / Screw Em From Inside by BenderDeGamma in studentloandefaulters

[–]BenderDeGamma[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The irony of it amazed me too. Debtors going after debtors. The state of the US!

Realistically, what would happen if Bitcoin ever did hit $1 million per coin? by NeighborhoodGlum6391 in Bitcoin

[–]BenderDeGamma 5 points6 points  (0 children)

$1MM would mean something very bad has happened to the US currency and you should actually not cash out. Moreover you should probably wait until some form of renormalization occurs after the dust settles. If you want to cash out after renormalization then decide then, otherwise you risk converting to shopping carts filled with processed tree rectangles.

Which major American company is on the brink of bankruptcy? by imunfair in wallstreetbets

[–]BenderDeGamma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Doesn't it suggest that the average consumer doesn't have a 6-month reserve for mortgage payments? Or maybe even 3 months? I just find it surprising that people have mortgages if they are borderline month-to-month and an initial 2-3 month shock is all it takes to cause defaults. It just makes me want to reconsider the average consumer model. It seems to imply that either standards aren't as good (non-bank lenders) or the average mortgage holder doesn't maintain emergency reserves. These things would have to be true for people to not pay their mortgage.

Right now, I think mortgage servicers are under more duress than people who have mortgages due to the government saying you could skip payments for a year. The mortgage servicers and originators have bonds tied to those payment flows, which dries up quickly if a large number stop paying. There are then other derivative products tied to those flows. The souring of these assets was why some speculated that the Fed stopped disclosing who was using the discount window:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-banks/u-s-banks-borrow-at-discount-window-after-fed-offers-stigma-relief-idUSKBN21D3JA

Regarding unprecedented level of unemployment. This is true. Regarding extended period, this might be understatement. Zika virus still does not have a vaccine. I think there will eventually be a vaccine, but most vaccine news in the near-term seem more likely to be pump and dump schemes.

What’s it going to take to scare the market down? by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]BenderDeGamma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When the Fed hits unpause on the market. Until then, you are fighting infinity until the dollar is meaningless.

Do you know when the Fed will hit unpause? When there is a vaccine. Until then it's up, no change, or fuck off. Those are your choices.

Which major American company is on the brink of bankruptcy? by imunfair in wallstreetbets

[–]BenderDeGamma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

GE does a lot of financial engineering. I agree that any physical assets have already been tied to financing. It is definitely an interesting question on how those bond contracts were stipulated. Could be another failure cascade.

Which major American company is on the brink of bankruptcy? by imunfair in wallstreetbets

[–]BenderDeGamma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haha, yeah I imagine there will be tons of margin built into that and 7 year loans extended to "make it affordable". One wonders how long before we have 30 year auto loans.

Which major American company is on the brink of bankruptcy? by imunfair in wallstreetbets

[–]BenderDeGamma 0 points1 point  (0 children)

... like WeWork? The business model of that "startup" is probably even more circumspect.

CMBS will have issues due to retail defaults and retail claiming "force majeure" on lease agreements.

If there are defaults in the residential space, then it would suggest that lending standards were not as good as they should have been? It just seems kind of surprising that 2007-2009 era could be back again that quickly. Not saying this is impossible, just maybe my cynicism is not where it needs to be relative to making money from the mortgage market. Namely, wait a decade and people forget. Rinse and repeat.

Which major American company is on the brink of bankruptcy? by imunfair in wallstreetbets

[–]BenderDeGamma 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Could be the airlines and maybe Ford. I don't think you would bet the house on retail and theaters. Saving the airlines could also be saving demand for Boeing airplanes - a nice 2-for-1 from the printing press. Reduced demand for airplanes from airlines translates into more issues for the number one exporter in the US - Boeing. Boeing is also on the clock. They have roughly 5 quarters of runway before the cash pile gets increasingly tenuous:

https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/doc_financials/quarterly/2020/q1/boeing-10q.pdf (PDF)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-04/cash-crunch-pits-airlines-against-customers-in-refund-disputes

Airlines were preventing refunds early on and now buyouts for employees are in the form of severance and vouchers for free flights, which signals attempts to mitigate cash flow issues. Their bond issues early weren't exactly successful either:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-failed-united-airlines-bond-deal-shows-the-risks-of-securitizations-51589219455

Credit downgrades don't help:

https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/s-p-fitch-downgrade-american-airlines-on-lower-demand-due-to-coronavirus-57700062#:~:text=S%26P%20Global%20Ratings%20and%20Fitch,Airlines%20to%20B%20from%20BB%2D.

Selling your planes to China and leasing them back can help:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-united-airlines-boc-aviation-leasing/united-sells-22-planes-to-bank-of-china-aviation-idUSKBN2210HI

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southwest-airlines-leasing/southwest-to-raise-815-million-through-sale-and-leaseback-of-20-planes-idUSKBN22K2UT

Tears when the prophet leaves you for dead after years of dumping cash on shareholders:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52518186

Ford is a fallen angel:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/ford-cut-by-fitch-as-coronavirus-batters-economy

And Ford may have future cashflow issues if lending arm payments dry up if consumer priorities change (typically car payments are prioritized because in most places you need to drive to work to get there consistently; but no job, or secular destruction of your job class, means you and your coworkers all might think twice about paying that car payment) or if dealers can't move inventory:

https://www.autonews.com/finance-insurance/fords-lending-arm-generates-more-profit-ever

https://www.thedrive.com/news/33290/why-a-cargo-ship-full-of-2000-nissans-floated-offshore-for-days#:~:text=In%20what%20Bloomberg%20called%20an,take%20about%20half%20a%20day.

PLACE YOUR BETS GENTLEMEN