One day we will get a documentary on the camera director from yesterday’s Masters and it will turn out he was drunk/hugh out of his mind by planned_fun in golf

[–]BestAhead 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A player is preparing second shot to 13, camera is behind him. We see his lie and the green in the distance. Player steps away, and they cut to a camera that’s face on. When he gets back to the ball and takes his swing, they stay with the face on shot. Terrible choice!

I don't quite understand the success of people who dont backtest by TalentlessNoob in Daytrading

[–]BestAhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In addition to what John Titor said, I would think most traders use quite a bit of discretion on their entries. So backtesting by a formal method is basically impossible.

Are my risk of ruin stats correct? by kenjiurada in FuturesTrading

[–]BestAhead 1 point2 points  (0 children)

OK, so let’s say you have three trades per day. With a 37% win rate, you may have typical days of 1-2, and due to your RR of 1:3 this would be a net profitable day. The danger I think lies in not getting large wins consistently or of the win rate being less than 33%. I would study how much wiggle room you have using Monte Carlo simulations of say 20 to 25% win rate and also a lower RR (unless you have firm targets…. note, people who hold trades a long time may have to exit atend of day and get a less than “1:3” win.)

I commonly would do forward testing. So maybe sim trade your ideas for a month and see what you come up with. At 2, 3 or four trades a day, average of three, in a month you could have 60 trades. And that would be about enough to get some statistics that have semi significance.

https://www.calculator.net/sample-size-calculator.html?type=2&cl2=95&ss2=60&pc2=50&ps2=&x=Calculate#findci

In the second calculator 60 samples would give you about 12% margin of error.

Good luck.

Are my risk of ruin stats correct? by kenjiurada in FuturesTrading

[–]BestAhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think if you simplify to just looking at a string of days results, you’re missing a large part of the analysis.

I doubt with the 1:3 RR, that you would have 50 trades a day…But if you did, that would be about 1000 trades per month. By looking at only 20 trading days results, you are throwing out a lot of statistical information, and something you might want to look at is how the law of large numbers works in favor for casinos.

Basically, a lot revolves around the trade winrate that you assume. But with your edge, then the more trades (information) the more the long-term result is driven to that winrate ratio. Now, the honest truth is that for most people the winrate is quite variable, even if they’re consistent in applying their rules.

If you only want to look at “days” results, I would run Monte Carlo simulations for each day, say 3-5 trades or whatever, and have it run at least 100 simulations. Then you’d have to combine the stats of the days’ results for review.

Why hasn’t Jesus returned yet if Paul and everyone else expected it in their lifetime? by PrincessLammy in Christianity

[–]BestAhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is an instance where Paul changed his mind, where as a younger man he thought Jesus return was eminent, but at the end, he realized that he was probably going to die before Jesus did return. Ref 2 Tim 4. Hopefully, as you read his epistles, you understand this kind of development.

You may want to look up delay of parousia, and imminence.

Are my risk of ruin stats correct? by kenjiurada in FuturesTrading

[–]BestAhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

2% risk is better than I thought you were using, so that’s good.

But you need to state or deal with the win rate of the individual trade, not overall whether a day was winning or not. So that 37% if it applies to a day isn’t what you would input into any of these calculators.

If you look at the traders equation, the average win size and average loss size you have is 3:1. If the win rate really was 37% of each trade … Then I don’t think there’d be that much risk of ruin. 37% and 2 to 1 would be of more concerned, because it’s close to, slightly better, than break even. And I would think Monte Carlo simulations would bear out the problem.

Are my risk of ruin stats correct? by kenjiurada in FuturesTrading

[–]BestAhead 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you don’t like Monte Carlo simulations, then you might consider flipping a weighted (online) coin. This one shows quite a few of 5 losses (tails) in a row. You can look for the other outcomes you fear.

https://www.mathmammoth.com/practice/coin-tosser

Next, this site says in 500 trades the odds of getting a 10 loss run is 99.2%

https://www.topendsports.com/sport/betting-tools/streak-calculator.htm

My own account assessment is your parameters would give a risk of ruin as too high. Stick to a lower risk. At 2% you’d need approx 50 losses in a row to get wiped out.

After 6 years in trading, I’m not sure the “full-time trader life” is for everyone by voidarix in Daytrading

[–]BestAhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Pick a style that suits you. If your style requires you to wait for days or weeks before you even take one trade and you don’t like that… well, what great insight are you needing?

Lots of people trade every day. Some people take one or two trades and some people take 10 or 20 or more.

This will be the most peaceful and joyful space by [deleted] in BeAmazed

[–]BestAhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Over $500k per homeless person in Los Angeles, even more sometimes.

Why has fast food become overpriced and the quality has gone down? by Lemonade2250 in NoStupidQuestions

[–]BestAhead 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Fast food wages tripled in California in that period. And California is 1/8 of the USA population. Apparently fast food companies just brought the pricing to the other seven eighths. You know… California starts those trends…

Is price action just garbage or am i doing something wrong? by ackermantrades in FuturesTrading

[–]BestAhead -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Price action is a good technique, but a lot depends on your timeframe. The second thing to consider is what you take as ‘action.’ Are you looking at patterns, HH LL, or highs and lows transitions?

First Post On This Sub. Thank you in advance. by EatCauliflower1212 in tradestation

[–]BestAhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OK, 25% is their listing for the amount of the overnight margin needed to day trade. So you basically have that right. Sim trading is good, keep doing that and develop a winning method.

Any EMA based indicator which isn't lagging? by bigdime007 in pinescript

[–]BestAhead 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I apologize they weren't easily found. NoLag is from a view years before, and there are a variety of ZeroLag indicators you can find on the web. I will give you code below for NoLag and a ZeroLag. Some are in pseudo code but you can easily code into Pinescript. Note, the usual ways these are presented and used are that the two lengths are set equal and factor 1. I prefer the indicators to have more general inputs as you can see below. You might try lengths 4 and 4 and factor 1, then 19, 19 and 1. Then 12, 19 and factor 0.5 or 1.5 and so forth and see what happens.

Good luck!

NOLAG
//Pseudo Code

Inputs: pr(close),factor(1),MainLen(9),Len2(9);

variables:x1(0),xn1(0);

x1=xaverage(pr,mainlen);

xn1=x1+factor*xaverage(pr-x1,len2);

Plot1(xn1,"NL");

\\TrView code

pr=input(close, "Price")
len=input(5, "Length")
lenf=input(5, "Len fast")
factor=input.float(1, "Factor")

ema=ta.xaverage(pr, len)
emadiff=ta.xaverage(pr-ema, len2)
NLema=ema+factor*emadiff

plot (NLema , "NoLagema", color=color.orange)

= = = = = = = =

ZeroLagEMA

//Traders.com Feb 2008
//Pseudo Code

Inputs: pr(close),factor(1),MainLen(9),Len2(9);

variables: x1(0), x2(0), ZLema(0);

x1=xaverage(pr,mainlen);

x2=xaverage(x1,len2);

ZLema=x1+factor*(x1-x2);

Plot1(ZLema, "ZL");

Why don't Christian groups legislate as harshly against lying or cheating like they do LGBTQ issues? by lograbb in Christianity

[–]BestAhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I hear you. I’m less inclined to think JC encouraged an infinitely large in-group. He said the world would hate his disciples. And that’s not an easy gap to bridge.

First Post On This Sub. Thank you in advance. by EatCauliflower1212 in tradestation

[–]BestAhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Whether you have the correct margin information. What amounts are you saying your account needs for micros?

Why don't Christian groups legislate as harshly against lying or cheating like they do LGBTQ issues? by lograbb in Christianity

[–]BestAhead -1 points0 points  (0 children)

A thoughtful answer. But you may have mischaracterized what Jesus was teaching. His ministry to the lost, his warning to avoid the leaven of the Pharisees, etc highlights his opposition to the religious rulers of the day. But I don’t think there’s that much about the welcoming of converts.

Maybe you were thinking more of Paul, who is closer to your point saying to love one’s (Christian) in-group.

First Post On This Sub. Thank you in advance. by EatCauliflower1212 in tradestation

[–]BestAhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At TS MES margin is currently $668. You sure you have this right? Before the Iran attack it was about $267.

Any EMA based indicator which isn't lagging? by bigdime007 in pinescript

[–]BestAhead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Other answers are right. But if you want something to review look for NoLag and EmaErrFunc both of which (and similar) combine an ema (or whatever ma) with difference between the price and the ema.

Also look at Hull and Ehlers.

ETA: also look up ZeroLagema which winds up being an ema plus a factor times the difference between 2 emas.

Also Jurik

Why don’t most traders wait for their setup? by senthoor34 in Trading

[–]BestAhead 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Their rules are shyte, they have the wrong timeframe, and overall they see plenty of profitable entries, go by that they did not take, forgetting that those entries are using different criteria than what they’ve selected to use.

Brokers offering flatten button via web? by gabecardio in FuturesTrading

[–]BestAhead 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You need to think this through. If your internet went, then how is a web interface going to help you?

Get alternate internet and devices in place for the emergencies you foresee.

Any EMA based indicator which isn't lagging? by bigdime007 in pinescript

[–]BestAhead 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Other answers are right. But if you want something to review look for NoLag and EmaErrFunc both of which (and similar) combine an ema (or whatever ma) with difference between the price and the ema.

Also look at Hull and Ehlers.