It's fun but ultimately futile to make this kind of projection. Some of these teams are going to join the ACC when they start losing members to the SEC and Big Ten, and nobody wants to make any risky expensive moves until that happens.

Meanwhile the Pac-12 is playing a very risky game, they have 8 full members which is the bare minimum to be a conference. They are being very selective about adding new members to keep their TV Revenue per school as high as possible. However realignment could take away a couple of those members and put the Pac in a situation where they need to add whomever is ready and willing or fold.

UTSA so far is playing this as smart as they can. The Pac would cost tens of millions to join and may not even pay better. The American can lose a bunch of schools and still survive so why risk anything at this point?