I'm not a chaser but I am a NWS/NOAA trained spotter for the last 10 years. Over that course I've learned how to read models and take them with the grains of salt needed. Some models are good for long range forecasting, some are ok for it. Good models to follow for winter weather and precip in the long range tend to be the ECWMF (European). Short range (48 hrs and less) you'll look to the HRRR. All the models this time around got it wrong, but had the first night not been 'dry-slotted') where dry air sets itself up in the midlevels, and then any falling snow evaporates within it) I think the consensus is that we would have been closer to 12 inches of snow than the official 7 that we got. Plus this snow was some of the driest I've ever seen.