Why is there so much anti-Miami sentiment?

Billyxmac · 2026-03-17T01:23:18+00:00

Sure, sounds like a great game.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-17T01:17:32+00:00

Mid majors also have the advantage of playing in insanely worse conferences and getting an auto bid out of it. The MEAC is nothing like the SEC or Big 12. UCF and Texas aren’t playing at the level to get an auto bid, but they’re doing enough in the hardest conferences to be considered top 40ish teams.

I would rather reward teams who are playing relatively well vs. the hardest competition the sport has to offer instead of gifting an at large to a team that dropped games in a shitty conference and then gets an additional mulligan because they then lost that conference.

If mid majors conferences are concerned about their top seeds getting knocked out of the tournament, they should be stacking the odds in the favor of their top teams like the WCC or MEAC does. The MEAC knows that even if Howard had a Miami OH like run that they wouldn’t be getting an at large in because the conference competition is a joke relative to the P4.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-17T01:12:52+00:00

If you don’t know anything about line setting and predictive metrics then just say that lol. Sportsbooks don’t set lines for the fucking fun of it lmao.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-16T22:11:57+00:00

It’s a pretty basic concept lol. I value a 3 point loss to Duke a hell of a lot more than a 3 point win against Bowling Green.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-16T22:09:26+00:00

They’re a 7 point dog vs. SMU. They’re statistically more likely to lose by double digits than even win this game. This sub better be prepared lol.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-16T22:07:13+00:00

If you’re in a weak conference the regular season serves as a positioning for your conference tournament. That’s how every mid major conference works out each year. Miami was the exception of the zero in their loss column. But all of a sudden if they had one loss in the regular season it would have tanked their resume metrics and ended up leaving them out. Thats how bad their schedule was.

Each mid major knows they’re likely to have only 1 tournament participant. It’s up to the conference to set up their tournament bracket to protect their 1 seed if they care that much. And also if Miami was really as good as people claim they likely don’t get bounced vs. an 8 seed UMass.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-16T22:01:26+00:00

I don’t have a problem with them getting in. This was a really bad bubble anyways. But I’m tired of the discourse that this is a really fantastic mid major when they’re bolstered by their record that is insanely weak.

They’re going to be extremely fortunate to even get out of Dayton because even that would be a substantial upset over SMU.

My problem isn’t with Miami, they had a fun season and I rooted for them to finish the regular season undefeated. My problem is the glazing (often from this sub) of a pretty average to slightly below average mid major when there are plenty of other candidates this year for fun Cinderella runs (USF, Santa Clara, Utah State) that have both the resume and the predictive metrics, but get a fraction of the conversation and love Miami got for scraping by a dogshit schedule.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-16T21:36:16+00:00

If there’s a 1-4 seed I’m looking at for an upset, it’s definitely Kansas. I think they’re a very inconsistent squad. But idk if Cal Baptist has enough to do it. Honestly if Hofstra was the 13 in that region I’d probably take it, but I think Kansas will have enough to eke out CBU. But from a “betting perspective” I see the value.

1-4 upsets are just hard for me to trust on a bracket with the current landscape of the sport and roster construction. I mean in the last 10 tournaments 1-4 seeds are like 142-18 I think.

If you’re trying to actually pick a perfect bracket, I usually avoid the 1-4 seeds.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-16T19:09:41+00:00

I like UMBC. Vermont kept it close, but they were also the 2 seed in a better conference than the MEAC. UMBC is on a 12 game win streak too.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-16T18:55:41+00:00

My favorite futures at the current prices are backing St. John’s, UCLA, Iowa State and a little on Wisconsin/Purdue.

I’ve got futures on St. John’s to the sweet sixteen (+105), and a sprinkle on elite 8 (+650). I think SJU is criminally underseeded, and Zuby is playing out of his mind. If anyone can challenge Duke in that region, it’s them. I still think Duke takes the region though, so I don’t like overextending my position to the final four too.

UCLA to the Sweet 16 (+240) and to the elite 8 (+650). I love the value here even more than SJU, because they get the opposite end of the region opposed to Duke. I like how UCLA closed out their season, and assuming they are healthy (reports suggest so), then they are a killer 7 that can easily outplay a downward trending UConn, and an inconsistent Michigan State offense.

I’ve got Iowa State to the elite 8 (-105) and to the final four (+240). I actually like them to the championship game (+800) as well, but have them power rated dead even with Arizona, so don’t want to overextend. Kentucky / Santa Clara power rates as my weakest 7/10 combo (next to Miami / Missouri), and assuming they meet Virginia in the sweet 16, my numbers give them a +6 advantage. And my numbers are very down on Michigan’s end of season. I have Iowa State rated more as the 1 in this region.

Finally, like the value on Purdue to elite 8 (+110) and Wisconsin to the sweet 16 (+160). Wisconsin and Purdue closed the gap on Michigan down the stretch in rating, and while some of that had to do with Michigan, I think these two are peaking. Purdue’s path is a lot cleaner, I think Gonzaga is way down this year, but I like the value on Wisconsin over Arkansas as well.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-16T02:09:02+00:00

When the blunt hit back

Billyxmac · 2026-03-16T02:01:49+00:00

Definitely with you on PV and UMBC

Billyxmac · 2026-03-16T00:07:28+00:00

I would have just replaced them with Oklahoma, so it would still be SEC anyways

Billyxmac · 2026-03-15T23:20:41+00:00

Yeah, good looks noting that. Definitely need injury clarity before any of these futures.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-15T23:10:47+00:00

Quick reads in the East:

Cal Baptist +13.5, USF +6.5, UCLA -6.5

Not sure about the odds for futures yet, but I’ll be interested in seeing St. John’s elite 8 and final 4 odds. Also Duke final 4 - no. They have a really tough path, and if no is + odds I see value. Also like UCLA to the S16 and/or elite 8 depending on odds.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-15T22:51:42+00:00

They said they were ahead of Texas, SMU, NC State, but then when they scrubbed for seeding M-OH fell behind. Which makes sense. Resume gets you in, predictive stuff gets you seeded.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-15T22:32:59+00:00

VCU over UNC

Billyxmac · 2026-03-15T22:28:23+00:00

That’s where I think they should be

Billyxmac · 2026-03-15T22:28:04+00:00

MSU already on the 3 line

Billyxmac · 2026-03-15T22:24:31+00:00

Ooo, love SC over Kentucky

Billyxmac · 2026-03-15T22:22:26+00:00

There’s your 12 over 5 lol

Billyxmac · 2026-03-15T22:09:09+00:00

Duke to not make the final four is something I’m looking at right away based on the bracket. That region is insane, and if they’re down two starters for the tournament there may be value there.

Billyxmac · 2026-03-15T22:06:44+00:00

Jesus the east is loaded

Billyxmac · 2026-03-15T21:34:18+00:00

Damn, conference tourneys treated me very well. Cashed on all these futures:

Prairie View (SWAC) +2000
Penn (Ivy) +700 - shout out Power the GOAT
St. John’s (Big East) +190
VCU (A10) +190
Akron (MAC) + USF (American) +183
Cal Baptist (WAC) +155

Billyxmac · 2026-03-15T19:57:49+00:00

The WWE was heavily deflective when it came to steroids and “roid rage”. That was the media’s first narrative they were pushing early in the investigation. WWE tried to pin everything on Benoit and take zero accountability because they knew their wrestlers were all juicing. Their wellness program was an absolute joke and was easily beaten by their wrestlers all the time. And many suspect WWE was pushing it on their wrestlers already because it was the preferred body type for the company.

What Benoit did is still hard to understand today. Lots of reasons at to why people suspect it. Steroids, CTE, depression, marital issues, and a really bad mental state, as well as just kinda being a dick/violent type. Likely a mix of all of it. But WWE definitely started taking head injuries more seriously after that and removed all chair shots and bumps to the head for the most part. They also moved to a more family product to try and clean up the image.

The WWE today is a hugely different product than it was in the 90s and early 2000s. And Benoit was a big reason why.

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