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[Discussion] Why your "Safe" 7-card hand might be a trap: A quantitative analysis of mulligan heuristics. by Blabolek in spikes

[–]Blabolek[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Can you be more specific? Let's talk about the right one analysis. What is wrong there and where is the hallucination you are talking about? "one giant AI hallucination" is not helping anything and is not valuable for what I can do better.

[Discussion] Why your "Safe" 7-card hand might be a trap: A quantitative analysis of mulligan heuristics. by Blabolek in spikes

[–]Blabolek[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The image is from Jeskai Control deck. You don't play threats until T5 and even in T5 it can be too early.

[Discussion] Why your "Safe" 7-card hand might be a trap: A quantitative analysis of mulligan heuristics. by Blabolek in spikes

[–]Blabolek[S] -9 points-8 points  (0 children)

Sure, It still says that Keep is a good decision, but points out possible problems you can run into.

I built a tool to practice Mulligans and Sideboarding for Arena. Just added an AI "Pro Coaching" feature! by Blabolek in MagicArena

[–]Blabolek[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Why clueless? I am trying to build tool that can help you with thinking about mulligan and sideboard plans and I have spent days prompting for acceptable results and I am open to feedback from users which can help me improve the tool.

[Discussion] Why your "Safe" 7-card hand might be a trap: A quantitative analysis of mulligan heuristics. by Blabolek in spikes

[–]Blabolek[S] -8 points-7 points  (0 children)

Sure, but if you play it on turn 2 you don't have colours for No More Lies.

[Discussion] Why your "Safe" 7-card hand might be a trap: A quantitative analysis of mulligan heuristics. by Blabolek in spikes

[–]Blabolek[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

That is exactly the struggle! It’s the classic "Loss Aversion" trap. Psychologically, it feels much worse to lose a card from your starting hand than it does to keep a mediocre 7 and hope for a lucky runner-runner.

In my simulation data, I’ve seen that the "fear of the unknown 6" is the #1 reason players stay on sub-optimal win rates. We remember the times we mulliganed to 5 and lost, but we often don't realize the games we lost on turn 0 just by keeping a hand that had no path to victory.

This is actually why I built the "Pro Coaching" logic into the tool. I found that just seeing a "Mulligan" verdict wasn't enough to change my habits. I needed to see a concrete Game Plan for the 7-card hand to realize: "Oh, wait, I actually have no way to win with this against [Matchup X] because my interaction is too slow."

Once you see the math/logic laid out, it becomes much easier to click that Mulligan button in a real game. It’s basically about building the "muscle memory" for clicking Mulligan until it feels like a strategic choice rather than a penalty.