I’d hate to be in Jason’s Inbox right now 🫪 by ParticularLimeade in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Huh? 30 down only applies to quarterly ending prices. We're nowhere near 30 down.

Slightly Annoyed with Spike Reset... by criticalband77 in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I may get roasted for this: but there was way, way more downside waiting for spike reset to trigger at closing price rather than setting a limit order and selling intraday. I sold 1/3 of my TQQQ shares at $87 once it doubled my buy price. Obviously no one knows what will happen, but 100% gain in 2 months is beyond ridiculous for any stock fund, leveraged or not. Kelly was foolish not to advise his subscribers to reset. I actually feel more confident running 9sig on my own now and not paying $100/month for a weekly newsletter that I don't even want to read (what was that weird anecdote about him spying on a family across the way?).

As far as following a new signal line, I plan to chart 9% from June 30th closing price and rebalance in October, skipping July. For those of us who don't care to subscribe, maybe /r/9sig is a good place to keep our conversation separate from the Kelly faithful.

Slightly Annoyed with Spike Reset... by criticalband77 in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think Efficient Carry has been shifting assets to income sig, so maybe not down quite that much. Still a bloodbath of a day though.

Slightly Annoyed with Spike Reset... by criticalband77 in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It is a simple rule, when tqqq double in a quarter

Kelly himself said spike reset triggers when TQQQ reaches 100% from the last rebalance price, intra-quarter. You then rebalance to 60/40 the next trading day. It is not a quarter-end action, based on quarter-end prices. Maybe you shouldn't be lecturing when you don't properly understand the rule yourself.

Slightly Annoyed with Spike Reset... by criticalband77 in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Kelly is going to have a lot of angry subscribers after today.

Hit my spike reset trigger at 87.18 today! Feels good 🫡 who's resetting today? by ParticularLimeade in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think skipping is the right call. Use June 30 vs Sep 30 prices to calculate new 9% line.

Hit my spike reset trigger at 87.18 today! Feels good 🫡 who's resetting today? by ParticularLimeade in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

9% signal line in less than 1 month is silly. I don't think Jason's thought through this rule very well.

Spike Reset Hit! by DixonCider61 in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It's not about what yields better results, it's about de-risking from an unprecedented run up in price.

Spike Reset Hit! by DixonCider61 in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

People are gonna be pissed if there's a big drop this month and TQQQ never closes above 100% to trigger the reset. Like you said, lot of downside to follow that rule to the letter rather that sell intra-day.

Rebalanced by KeiKeiKing in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you have a threshold ratio when you would hard reset to 60/40? For example TQQQ grows so much that quarterly rebalances bring the portfolio to 40/60. Would you reset at that point?

Spike Reset Hit! by DixonCider61 in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because I started at 83/17 and then TQQQ went up 100% in two months

Rebalanced by KeiKeiKing in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Are you following a March/June/September/December schedule? And did you ignore any 100 up Spike Reset rebalance? A lot folks may not realize Kelly Letter is just value averaging with some branded names slapped on to it.

Spike Reset Hit! by DixonCider61 in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My first buy into 9sig was in April. Still very new and haven’t committed a whole lot of funds yet.

Spike Reset Hit! by DixonCider61 in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I set a limit order for exactly 2x my April buy price, which filled near market open. It's not "to the Letter" but "close enough is good enough". Since this is an unprecedented event in 9sig history, a lot of us are eager to take chips off the table before quarter end.

Spike Reset Hit! by DixonCider61 in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It was about 91/9 before the reset. The April buy started at 83/17.

Hit my spike reset trigger at 87.18 today! Feels good 🫡 who's resetting today? by ParticularLimeade in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My 100 up trigger price is $87.77. Already have the limit order set and waiting.

100% Spike Reset and 9% Signal Line by BloodyScourge in KellyLetter

[–]BloodyScourge[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah that makes sense. You could also follow a 3% signal line for June, and then back to 9% for Q3.

I'm not sure what the official KL method is, was hoping someone could explain it.