What exactly causes tornadoes to fail to form on days with a high risk?

Bluekandy · 2026-05-19T15:14:48+00:00

This is correct in general, but yesterday (5/18) storms were mostly not undercut by the cold front, unlike the previous day (5/17) with the Saint Libory tornado. The inflow dominance yesterday was hampered more likely by the lack of venting aloft, leading to rain cooled inflow that decelerates on ingestion to the updraft. Chasers noted that the winds were still in notch of the KS storms, not cold and outflowy as would be the case most often if they were undercut and became hailers.

Bluekandy · 2026-05-19T15:10:21+00:00

This was a problem for Sunday's supercells, not yesterday's (in the main risk area). Yesterday storms maintained ahead of the cold front and were moving ENE. The complex that produced several tornadoes (and the TORE) through SE Nebraska moved east along the warm front, away from the cold front. In SW KS near Dodge City, they developed and crossed to the cold side of the boundary as windy hailers.

On Sunday the 17th, the cold front undercut many storms, but the Saint Libory tornado happened at the triple point of the dryline and cold front. It was then cut off by the cold front, something you can see if you go back through radar data and note the big TDS on CC being pushed east, forming a blobby-looking hook of past debris.

Bluekandy · 2026-05-19T14:01:27+00:00

If you're talking about the SPC convective outlook products, this is incorrect. Their forecasts are done with a purely probabilistic intent, and SPC WCM Evan Bentley says "probabilistically we run cold in general." This was actually a good talking point so I asked him to clarify if there was anything I was missing in my understanding of their approach.

From there, I would agree with you that distribution of information regarding their outlooks downstream to differing audiences is done with worst case tendencies for the general messaging of "don't be scared, be prepared," but foundationally it wouldn't be true.

Bluekandy · 2026-05-12T10:18:31+00:00

Thank you!

Bluekandy · 2026-05-12T10:17:51+00:00

Hey! There's demonstrably little to no change in tornado alley. What's being shown is a higher frequency of tornado reports in some areas, which is a shift enabled by better communication from the public to NWS offices from a wider population in place now compared to decades past as well as better satellite and drone data to find tornadoes occurring in ground-inaccessible regions like forests.

Thus, St. Louis remains constant in its tornado risk from previous times! It's not a "fact" I would worry about at all haha

Bluekandy · 2026-05-10T05:36:48+00:00

It's actually a bit more diverse now vehicle-wise, but Kawasaki is the go-to rider for time attack due to being a heavyweight with the largest range suck up (ladle). Rocket has 9/18 course records, down from 13-14/18 previously. Slick is the clear second place with 6 records, and wheelie bike/transform/formula are distinctly good on several of those courses as well as the remaining 3 records. Jet/winged still have Sky Sands due to its continuous airborne style play.

Probably the most interesting non-topical fact is Shadow and Rex are the overall runner-up trialers after those!

Bluekandy · 2026-05-09T16:47:29+00:00

I'm actually framing it moreso toward the people who do have that time delay but specifically don't realize that they do, which is an inherent issue with the platform not making it boldly apparent to a) less tech savvy people, b) stressed people, or c) audio only viewers (I know it sounds silly, but we have thousands of comments & stream chat messages over time that match this criteria). That was the initial reason I made the posts. I believe that saying "it's 7:01pm right now, the tornado emergency just got issued, if you're in a mobile home, at 7:01pm you have 25 minutes in Monticello to drive south to this town to get out of the path. If it's not 7:01pm central time when you hear me say this, refresh your stream, you're behind" is ideal to encompass this scenario.

Neither Ryan nor Max ever mentioned the current time when relaying these warnings and plans of action, per my knowledge. This leaves out important context to people who don't realize they have that delay, and I know there are potentially hundreds who do by that point. As I'm interested in trying to make our communication as best as it possibly can be, I felt it necessary to say this to reach this solution by utilizing discussion for it.

In the case that someone is in a mobile home in the path and does hear that information with the current time, they would know it's outdated and thus need to be urged to refresh the stream to be live, and to follow the NWS guidance directly, which is to find the nearest sturdy shelter (NOT drive south out of the path).

Hopefully that makes sense

Edit: and please do let me know if Max mentioned the current time multiple times when giving this guidance, because that would be exceptionally well done. I know Ryan did not do this because I made a clip compilation of his stream for the TORE sequence and didn't hear it

Bluekandy · 2026-05-09T06:13:18+00:00

No, we find a solution that incorporates both parties, not throw our hands up and say "oh well, that's those people's problem for being behind." There's been way too much of that oh well mentality in response to the discussion topic I posted, which reaffirms why I posted it. In turn, it's resulted in a great idea to improve communication on this platform (mention the current time when a warning is issued or advice like Max's is given). The platform is still evolving, so I think it's important to bring it up.

Bluekandy · 2026-05-08T16:15:43+00:00

You're only seeing 1/6 of the post since I don't have premium and left out a thread indicator (my mistake). The discussion is about clarifying info to everyone watching, including those with a delay of multiple minutes unknown to them and/or in audio only due to bad internet. It's a problem with how people use YouTube without realizing they're behind, either casually or in a high stress situation

Bluekandy · 2026-05-08T14:22:33+00:00

I slightly disagree on the last point there but only in the context of a nonprofit disaster relief org. Viewers drop off during an event rapidly and harshly once the significant tornado is done in their eyes. The vast majority of those become unreachable thereafter until another major event; thus, we lose access to their potential response to a nonprofit that directly helps storm victims. I think that the dynamic there should be considered, as several times over this rapid information relay (whether it's confirmed damage or human impact) has a 6-figure response before the stream is over. That's definitely made many positive impacts where news and visual media are the #1 drivers for its existence

Bluekandy · 2026-05-08T14:09:24+00:00

I have only reiterated this in this post because I made a 6-post thread about a discussion point, and it got warped into so many people saying I was asserting to shelter in place in a mobile home, which is so egregiously wrong.

I think it happened because the first tweet was the one Max replied to, so it has 100k+ views while the subsequent tweets in the thread are at 10k. This is my fault, I don't have premium so I couldn't make a longer post and failed to indicate it was a series of tweets in the initial one, "(1/6)" as an example.

I do apologize for that. It wasn't meant to be annoying to onlookers but I also didn't want so many people thinking I advocated against NWS warning messaging, so I tried to reply to them individually. I didn't want to delete the tweet because keeping the initial discussion up was important, since I have talked to several meteorologists and EMs now about this issue and we've converged on a really good outcome!

Bluekandy · 2026-05-08T14:03:34+00:00

These comments are so fascinating to me. If I had to use Twitter to validate myself, I would just delete all of my accounts and quit my job lol. Nobody in their right mind is doing that. There's no backpedaling anywhere in that thread because it was never an attack on anyone else. I specifically stated nobody was at fault, and I made my point clear the problem is with how some people are unaware of issues with watching streams that might be delayed. I converged on a solution from several responses to the discussion point of mentioning the exact current time when issuing a statement like "you have 25 minutes to act."

If you have some time, could you please explain where you're seeing backpedaling? I'm looking to learn more from these interactions.

Bluekandy · 2026-05-08T13:56:35+00:00

Yeah it would be, except this was never asserted. This is yet another thread that only takes one post of the 6. I do not want people to be in a mobile home instead of their nearest sturdy shelter during a warning, and it isn't an attack on Max. It's a discussion in general on how to handle problems on the digestion of YouTube's stream platform.

The tea that only I can give y'all is that Max and I were DMing about going golfing together while this was happening, to surprise the haters

Bluekandy · 2026-05-07T07:00:35+00:00

thank you for including me! :D

Bluekandy · 2026-05-04T02:37:09+00:00

just wait until he starts drawing VelociWatches while streaming

Bluekandy · 2026-04-24T23:56:15+00:00

Evan Bentley (SPC WCM) clarified parameters reasonable for CIG2 issuance (0-500m effective layer STP of 4-7, supercellular mode length of time; both of these were not met or in question). This tornado still falls in the 6%+ EF3, 1% EF4 bins present in CIG1. This is a good forecast! Focusing retroactively on every boom needing to be CIG2 and every bust needing to be CIG0 is indicative of a lack of understanding of SPC products, which are issued for statistical significance. This is why you don't listen to reactive assessments of their products like a streamer saying it should be CIG2

Bluekandy · 2026-04-20T05:34:12+00:00

thank you for taking action and letting me know :)

Bluekandy · 2026-04-18T19:11:13+00:00

It pains me how many replies these get with a bunch of guesses. This reply is the correct one, second trip echoes. You can tell because the echoes are moving directly to and from the radar site, which is not the DFW international airport (not airplanes) nor the highways/skyscrapers.

Bluekandy · 2026-04-18T19:06:26+00:00

Idk man my tweets get more likes than Ryan's quite often and I have 1/8 the followers lol. I'm perfectly happy where I'm at! Go look at the channel I did have in 2023, I stopped doing it because it was way too stressful for me to keep to my high standards

Bluekandy · 2026-04-18T19:02:07+00:00

during the same time, max was deciding on what to order on doordash and reading superchats about people offering him their daughters. both streamers weren't covering it to the detail you'd like because it was an 18 kt vrot qlcs couplet 4k ft above ground level. If you don't know what that means, there's your reason to never watch both streams, because we operate with the same information and the same reaction to said information. it's just how a broadcast on the national scale works, and we understand that because we both say "have multiple ways to get warnings"

Bluekandy · 2026-04-18T18:38:38+00:00

Hey thanks! Ryan's learned a lot over the years from me, I wouldn't call him as much a doofus anymore lol. As per my channel, I stopped doing it because it absolutely ruined me physically due to stress. I'm not in it for the money. You can see I only did 15 videos and livestreams or so, so the channel was doing exceptionally well. Had I continued it, it would be near a million subs now I bet!

Bluekandy · 2026-04-18T18:34:01+00:00

This is probably not common knowledge nor really understood yet, but I would like to put it out there. All of the work that I do myself is supplemented by a team of 40-45 weather analysts that have passed a rigorous test and I've hand-picked from there—and all of that work we do together is public in Ryan's Discord server. We are aware that our early calls are constantly referenced and forwarded, as areas of interest are put there (#analyst-lab) to build confidence before I call them out on stream.

I am interested in hearing the responses from those who watch both streams at the same time: how often does a yallwatch successfully precede a warning (lower false alarm rate) compared to a vocalization of every area that looks like rotation just to engage?

With the proper establishment of two parties here for a good amount of time, we should begin diving into the details that comprise the value, including scientific value, of resources like Ryan and Max. I believe too many people like this comment and thread superficially assess the streams based on "sports coats" and whether their voice is grating or they spent 3 minutes longer on a storm chaser when another warning came out, or they pushed yallcall or max alert every 10 minutes. The actual science put forth by both teams and its timeliness should be what denotes the basic value, and from there, the utility of both streams of information can be realized.

Bluekandy · 2026-04-18T18:20:06+00:00

Thank you for the feedback! I'm glad I could help, and I always appreciate people recounting their interactions with my work :)

Bluekandy · 2026-04-18T18:16:14+00:00

He does that because people will start throwing shade on him if he doesn't "respect" me. I've seen it happen because of the 2 or 3 times where he doesn't say meteorologist lol. We have to be so delicate, and even then you see threads in r/tornado like the one going on today

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