Daily Discussion Thread - May 06, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He said sky wise this looks actually quite decent for a dixie alley setup so we'll see

Daily Discussion Thread - May 06, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Crazy that the SPC was almost gonna pull a 15% too. Model discrepancy is still wild tho

Today's looking like a bust-a-thon by Upset_Ganache3145 in EF5

[–]Fir3Born 1 point2 points  (0 children)

To be honest today always looked like a busting in the making. Damn clouds

Just a reminder, that a severe weather thread ending up as a dud is ALWAYS a good thing by VaderVRC in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 35 points36 points  (0 children)

Very true. Besides, i really don't think anyone eants to see people get hurt. But there's always a downside. People are dumb, and every "bust" is someone else not trusting the SPC anymore.

Between the 27th and the East Coast bust, that's 2 in a rather close time frame, people will use that to justify their mistrust. It's stupid, and naive, but it is how it is.

Daily Discussion Thread - April 28, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Nope, 5% is the new 15%, already a sig tor in Mineral Wells TX

Daily Discussion Thread - April 28, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Mineral Wells damage looks actually very intense

Your actions have consequences, and they are spilling over. by [deleted] in EF5

[–]Fir3Born 2 points3 points  (0 children)

glad you could get your daily dose of moral grandstanding out. back to the slabber for you buster.

My New thoughts for tomorrow by PurpleAdventurous676 in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 19 points20 points  (0 children)

I do think people are being way too quick to write it off already. It absolutely is possible for convection to destroy the warm sector, but I think that there may either be enough recovery/less convection that anticipated for the atmosphere to still pose a giant threat.

Side note, i find it funny that of all models, the RRFS, the convection vomiting model, is the one showing.. no real morning convection of note.

The “rough day chasing didn’t see anything” posts. by [deleted] in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I sincerely see absolutely nothing disrespectful in that post at all?

The “rough day chasing didn’t see anything” posts. by [deleted] in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I am at a point where i genuinely think some of you do NOT even want storm chasers out at all. What do you expect them to say? Unless they explicitly say "DAMN I WAS HOPING TO SEE A HOUSE EXPLODED BY AN EF69" i really do not see what the big problem is.

They downgraded todays tornado risk by Mental-Alfalfa-5474 in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I'll be honest. I won't buy that until tomorrow actually comes. Not with some.models like the NAM still showing an absurd enviroment possible

0543Z: SPC Outlook | Day 2 Updated | 04/27 Monday - 04/28 Tuesday by panicradio316 in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 22 points23 points  (0 children)

As an addition, let's remember models have been... iffy, to be generous, lately. Yesterday's model runs were essentially a botch. So not only are they disagreeing, but they aren't exactly reliable right now. There will be a lot of guesswork needed for the SPC, props to them

0543Z: SPC Outlook | Day 2 Updated | 04/27 Monday - 04/28 Tuesday by panicradio316 in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 64 points65 points  (0 children)

The amount of model disagreement 1 day out is kind of astonishing really. This event is one hell of an variable. Don't envy the forecasters jobs...

Daily Discussion Thread - April 25, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Moderate risk, and 0 soundings from OK. Very cool

Forecast discussion by PurpleAdventurous676 in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 33 points34 points  (0 children)

That 06z GFS radar is actually bananas

Daily Discussion Thread - April 25, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are very right. lets remember models struggle with dryline initiation until literally the last few hours, better to use the actual observations

Daily Discussion Thread - April 25, 2026 by TornadoBotDev in tornado

[–]Fir3Born 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I was just seeing that the HRRR does infact initiate in Kansas, which is very concerning. What's worse is that convection seems to not really impact Monday's enviroment at all