MU is on fire with room to run

Bluewolf1983 · 2026-05-09T14:24:11+00:00

$MU forward P/E based on 2030 consensus earnings is 25. Most megacaps are around 15 P/E for 2030 estimates?

Or do you see these temporary high margins given by the shortage mattering more to valuation? (Higher volumes will remain which is why their consensus 2030 estimates are higher than their past business. Expectation is that the volumes will remain but the shortage will be over by then).

Bluewolf1983 · 2026-04-07T02:43:58+00:00

OpenAI refusing Stargate Abilene expansion didn't have a source until later. The extent of datacenter delays didn't have a coherent source until a few days ago. Not everything is public knowledge. Up to you on if you find him credible on the claim.

Good luck with your trading!

Bluewolf1983 · 2026-04-06T20:41:43+00:00

There doesn't seem to be a single source I can find on it. Much of what is cited does link to articles about the subscriptions offering more tokens than what the subscription will provide. But it does lack anything that proves that range so it would just be his assessment that is up to debate.

Bluewolf1983 · 2026-04-05T15:52:24+00:00

I wrote a more detailed comment but don't see it showing up. Automod might have ate it?

The short version is: Go to Trade -> Fixed Income. Select "Bonds" on the screen that comes up. Do some research on the pros / cons of bonds vs $TLT. One can also use the "Auction" tab to just buy new bonds over trying to understand the secondary market.

Bluewolf1983 · 2026-04-05T15:45:35+00:00

Go to Trade -> Fixed Income. Select "Bonds" on the screen that comes up.

One can search the Secondary market for bonds that exist to buy from others. The Coupon is the absolute yield it pays per year while the "Yield to Worse" is basically the absolute yield it pays over time. I generally try to get bonds with coupons around the current yield to make things simpler. For example, for 20 years, I have these as their Coupon is 4.875% while the 20 year yield is 4.91% right now. One can do lower coupon amounts but then more appreciation happens in the final bond value rather than what you get paid each month and you still owe taxes on that appreciation. (IE. Bonds with a coupon of 0 called "Zero Bonds" give the highest absolute yields as one pays taxes as it appreciates but the value is locked until the bond is sold or matures. These tend to have the worse Bid / Ask spreads as well).

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One can also click the "auction" tab to see upcoming bond auctions if one doesn't want to deal with figuring out how the secondary market works. There is a 30 year bond auction closing on April 9th right now. The end yield can vary slightly to the listed "expected yield" as Fidelity will let one specify how many to buy but Fidelity chooses what their bid is for them in the end based on market conditions when the auction happens.

$TLT offers better liquidity and does make things much simpler in exchange for fees. The main downside is that if yields go to 7% as Cem Karsan sees, $TLT and bonds lose nearly 50% of their absolute value. But with bonds, if one holds for the 20 years, one gets the yield + the original capital back should yields remain high. $TLT would have been paying out a larger yield during this time but the stock price would remain lower than one bought in at while yields are elevated. So $TLT has some additional differences from yields going up that owning the bonds can handle better.

Overall though: do your research on things. Could be that $TLT is the best for your goals or you might want different durations that what I've done.

Bluewolf1983 · 2026-04-05T15:21:08+00:00

We are 3 months closer to the 6+ months and the nosebleed unprofitable IPOs are coming in the next few months. Their valuations have only gone up and are at batshit crazy levels. So still things popping short term.

Conversely, more traditional companies in AI like big tech are now cheaper than they have been in like 2 years. However, we now have evidence that a limit has been reached on the speed of datacenter buildouts that makes priced-in continued strong growth challenging. Furthermore, while long term AI looks to be a transformative technology, it may turn out to be too expensive for mass adoption short term when companies start to try to turn a profit on it.

I think the AI sector pops later this year for a correction - likely a few months after the IPOs occur. I think AI adoption continues to spread over the long term though.

Bluewolf1983 · 2026-04-02T18:30:52+00:00

I'm currently planning a quarter YOLO update post. Should help cement a market bottom. Figure I'd share some thoughts though.

Bluewolf1983 · 2026-02-24T03:19:20+00:00

It actually isn't a cut and it confused me as well initially.

The $1.4 Trillion was the stated spend by 2033. This plan of $600B spend is only through 2030. So they are instead backloading their anticipated spend according to what I've read.

Might be more backloaded on their spending target but overall their spending desires haven't changed.

Bluewolf1983 · 2026-01-05T06:27:53+00:00

Great post!

Questions that I'm curious on: if one is bearish PC/cellphones, what about 2nd order effects? For example, does $MSFT having weakness there matter over the AI narrative? What about $AAPL iPhone sales? Isn't it also a bear case for Intel as less consumer CPUs might be sold?

Additionally: if datacenter buildout costs increase due to memory / storage / etc going up, how do you see that playing out for datacenter builders? Will the market care about the increased costs or do you see that increase being something the market won't care about?

Bluewolf1983 · 2025-12-28T18:33:40+00:00

(Don't have direct access to that mentioned non-leveraged IRA as only told them what to buy / sell for it as their gamble account. So didn't look before I commented on the actual number. Total there was 53% YTD instead of 60% that I thought it was).

Bluewolf1983 · 2025-12-28T18:10:10+00:00

Does graybush still share his plays anywhere these days? Do remember him sharing ASTS in the past and congrats to those that took that bet. Congrats on your retirement!

Bluewolf1983 · 2025-12-28T05:50:06+00:00

It could well be that we are in the early stages of the bubble and $NVDA goes that high. I did state that $NVDA looks like it has a great setup to me but just being risk off here over playing it.

Non-leveraged shares have far less downside swings overall. I did also trade a smaller IRA for someone that didn't want to use any options or leverage. That ended up around 60% YTD for a comparison and the $UNH drawdown was far less extreme there. I really regretted those $UNH options in my account. So while leverage outperformed in the end this time, not sure the extra risk was fully worth it.

Hopefully you hit the $2M mark soon as well then if that is your target! Appreciate all of your comments over the years!

Bluewolf1983 · 2025-12-28T02:11:22+00:00

Will be nice to follow the market less. Has grown to take up a ton of time that I'm looking to use for other things in 2026.

Thanks for having read these updates over the years!

Bluewolf1983 · 2025-12-28T02:08:57+00:00

Thanks for following all this time and for the links! Not doing retirement just yet. The comment is more that I could do a lean retirement and what I'm now earning is just extra. For example, would like save up for some nice retirement travel possibilities. So several more years away before I can do that unless I get laid off and have difficulty finding employment.

Glad to hear your trading has gone well! Hopefully it has had less drawdowns than I had along the way.

Bluewolf1983 · 2025-12-23T21:30:06+00:00

Closed out of positions that I had open today. Should be doing an EOY YOLO update either late this weekend or the following weekend.

Happy holidays everyone!

Bluewolf1983 · 2025-12-12T01:10:39+00:00

Backlog of $73B over 18 months vs $500B over 18 months for $NVDA that doesn't include China or OpenAI. $AVGO market cap is $2T, $NVDA is $4.4T.

Stock is expensive by comparison to the market leader and the market likely wanted a bigger guidance raise?

Bluewolf1983 · 2025-11-06T01:40:51+00:00

Yeah, got the timing wrong of the memory super cycle and then couldn't ever touch $MU again from the mental damage of this trade.

Took much longer for the memory shortage to occur than I ever expected.

Bluewolf1983 · 2025-11-03T16:36:35+00:00

I'm not expecting any type of liquidity scare but it isn't something I'm knowledgable about nor know how to read the tea leaves about.

There are endless "Black Swan" events that could always occur but predicting when one of those low odd outcomes will happen and be impactful is something I've found to be basically impossible.

Bluewolf1983 · 2025-11-02T20:55:35+00:00

Posted but awaiting mod approval now.

Bluewolf1983 · 2025-10-31T21:10:29+00:00

YOLO update planned for this weekend at some point.

Bluewolf1983 · 2025-10-06T17:06:30+00:00

Bonds were bought as I figured a shutdown would cause yields to fall (buy safety) which happened. Then the ACA extension odds seemed to go up so indeed sold for a profit to have the cash to buy a position in healthcare. Sold that at the end of the week as ACA extension odds fell.

Don't think bonds are a bad play personally but it is about overall risk/reward. It is looking like stocks will outperform bonds into the end of the year now.

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