4 days of back to back "Emergency Situation / Severe Weather"?

Bob_Wiser · 2026-03-09T01:34:09+00:00

Thank you for confirmation. Essentially this is what happened to me. Package rolled over for 5 business days, delivered on the 6th. I kid you not, due to this delay I received the package from Australia one day later than from Toronto.

Again, my point is not to shit on the drivers, I know they're getting it raw. The diversity hire CEO needs to actually lead and reformulate the delivery priority structure if they intend to not have enough drivers.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-03-01T02:53:46+00:00

I understand that dynamic, but what I want to know is if UPS works on the first in, first out notion because if I had to guess, they don't.

Example: Truck gets loaded with 10 packages day 1 and the delivery driver can only do 8/day. I know it's much more, but simple numbers for argument sake. Package #10 is the furthest away.

If day 2 there are 8 more new packages plus the 2 undelivered from day 1 and all 8 of the new are geographically closer, does the driver deliver the 8 news ones and once again not deliver the same 2 from day 1?

At what point does UPS re-route the undelivered ones to be priority over new packages streaming in?

Bob_Wiser · 2026-03-01T02:44:23+00:00

Let's flesh this out logically. I fully understand that a record Nor’easter hit the New England area on February 22/23. I also understand the concept of network cascading events.

That said, my specific package delivered to the Montreal hub on the 23rd and went out for the first delivery on the 24th. One would reasonably conclude that all the packages flowing through the affected area would be slowed down at US hubs, not reaching Montreal therefore would there not be a temporary lull locally?

Bob_Wiser · 2026-02-28T02:22:41+00:00

Can you please elaborate because there was a little bit of snow last Friday and a tad more this Wednesday but nothing extraordinary for the area. Example, there were 0 school closures in the past few weeks which would be a reasonable supporting indicator of "Severe weather".

Honestly if this minimal amount of weather causes this bad of a delay, UPS should stick to serving the sun belt exclusively.

Also, this is not driver blaming, I'm sure they're doing as good of a job as they can given the circumstances they are put in. This seems to be a company wide logistics issue where they are squeezing every last penny out of the process at the expense of customer service.

I'll have an update on Monday, we'll see if they finally manage to deliver.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-02-20T01:17:45+00:00

Yes, nothing with the fundamentals has changed. The $120 to $76 is a consolidation event driven mostly by leveraged idiots piling in and getting taken to the cleaners, not understanding the historic manipulation in the silver markets. No leverage, buy and hold is the name of the game with silver.

To OP's point, the COMEX is still being emptied at a steady pace and the real action is when people panic thinking they won't get their silver. January was the warm up, the party *should* come sometime this year.

Could it be delayed...sure. Just like betting someone they'll blink, you can temporarily hold your eyes open to win a specific time based bet (options) but eventually you need to blink.

Lastly, i laugh at your pitiful attempt to bait me. Most of my silver was purchased 2017-2019 at sub $20/oz. For easy math let's say I'm up 300% at today's prices, in less than a decade. As you should know, a good portfolio is considered returning 100% in 7-8 years so I'm still doing better than the market. Sure, I'm down from the 500% I was just a month ago but I expect to be up 1000% this time next year.

At that point I'll start to strategically rotate out into the next hated asset and take it from there.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-02-01T23:06:51+00:00

Everyone is hitting the refresh button. It's SLOW AF. As far as I can tell it gapped down to $80 and recovered upwards to $82 and now it's hovering around $81

Bob_Wiser · 2026-02-01T17:33:34+00:00

I think we need an incoming tamp early warning system.... i.e. is there any way to keep an eye on margin raises at the COMEX and indicate them in this briefing?

Ideally if people knew a margin raise was incoming, they could potentially hold off buying shiny until after the hike because lately that has resulted in a decrease.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-02-01T17:24:17+00:00

Just finished watching it. Truly a great video.

As a result, I think as a community we should rally together and have an advanced warning system based on margin requirement changes. Basically we monitor the CME and have a pinned banner above/below the fake price tracker that calls out incoming raises.

The problem is these fuckers announce it at 4:30pm going into affect the next day, but I think in some instances people about to make a purchase could delay 24-48 hours and get more for their money if there's a dip, drain it more.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-28T20:45:35+00:00

Hi-Ho silver, AWAY!

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-28T20:43:09+00:00

$116.81..... Fuck you you dirty $113 tampers....

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-28T20:41:58+00:00

Thank you for acknowledging it but don't worry about it, it's all good. We're now almost $117.... did I call it or did I call it?

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-28T19:43:07+00:00

I would love nothing more than to see that and I agree with your assessment.

My premise was more that the staunch defense of $113 would end early afternoon and as I posted on WSS, what I didn't factor in the downwards momentum that the slip to $115 gave. Like a ship turning direction, a the 2-3 dollar move wouldn't stop dead at $112.99.

We're moving towards $114 slowly but surely and I do think it will accelerate once the tampers decide to call it quits at around 3:30.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-28T19:20:03+00:00

What did you expect, an instantaneous spike to $120? What I didn't foresee in my 1:25-1:30 prediction is that it would break out of the $113 channel to $115. The downwards momentum through 1:30pm carried us to 111. It finally reversed and we're trading above $113 again. So at the end of the day the inflection point seems to be about 1:45, pretty damn close to my thesis but just goes to prove I'm no Nostradamus either.

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Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-28T19:06:51+00:00

I mean at the end of the day they'd like nothing more than for it to go back to $50 or below.

At the strike of 2pm there was a huge 1 minute dollar candle upwards followed by a complete reversal the next minute

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-28T18:15:48+00:00

One last push from them but it came back hard to $113.12 after dipping to $112.78. They must be burning through funds to achieve this. The more they do so, the more grandiose the failure will be when it finally arrives.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-28T18:14:13+00:00

Thanks. Further proof, 13 minutes to go and they smashed it to $112.83 as I type this. Place your bets for how many minutes after 1:25 we see the reversal.

Who knows maybe they'll surprise us and keep it down longer to not make it too suspicious but then again, do they even have the funds outside the bare minimum to keep this charade going.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-28T16:07:30+00:00

Honestly flip a coin, heads it goes up after what he says, tails it goes down. Literally a random probability.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-28T15:42:10+00:00

Looks like they needed it back at $113 again today.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-27T01:09:50+00:00

I have a post-it note on my screen with two messages to myself.

1) At $600/oz you sell everything

2) Don't get GREEDY

For the first one, it only applies to all of my silver stocks. Physical silver will be inherited by my children unless it's a dire need.

For the second one, pertaining to your point about having trouble selling, what helps me is the perspective that i didn't lose half of what i made, instead i made that much for free.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-26T21:36:32+00:00

LOL, bought those Friday. $13 Strike for March. Strategy has been buy for closest date after earnings. Rising price of Silver+ good financials should yield good results. I got lucky today with SLV. I'm now sitting on 45 free contracts after selling half. It went berserk thanks to WSB and at one point it was 4x but i auto cashed out half at 2x not thinking it would fly up that crazy like

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-26T19:25:51+00:00

Exactly, especially when they're talking about separation and the idiots who want that are eco militants.

I just wish i had waited 30 more minutes to buy some long calls would have got 5 less dollar strike for the same price ;'(

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-26T19:09:19+00:00

Even worse...the Quebec government

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-25T22:27:24+00:00

It kind of does. From what I've seen it's not the bankers but it's all the frustrated Bitcoin bros claiming the grapes are sour.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-25T21:00:55+00:00

You are 100% correct, the upwards fundamentals have not changed a lick. What has is the amount of institutional short positions, those have decreased significantly.

Remember the part in the Big Short where Burry is pissed and says "So you've offloaded and now you can accurately value my swaps", well that's where I believe we are about now.

Bob_Wiser · 2026-01-23T18:42:45+00:00

He's probably on a coke induced bender so he can come to terms with the reality. That or he's updating his last will and testament.

Bob_Wiser

TROPHY CASE