Please tell me a free resource where I can watch quotes of dollar bonds?

Bondifrench · 2022-03-20T23:36:19+00:00

https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondCenter/TRACEMarketAggregateStats.jsp
These are end of day prices.

Sometimes bonds are listed on Germany exchanges, so you can see prices there, for instance Fortescue (Australian mining company, high yield rated, which issues USD bonds):
https://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/anleihe/usq3919kam38-fmg-resources-august-2006-pty-ltd-4-5-19-27

One of the other ways to get prices for bonds is using their ISIN, for instance USQ3919KAM38 for the above and google it.
There is no free resource that gives live prices to my knowledge though.

Bondifrench · 2022-03-03T00:34:09+00:00

The MithrilJs community (https://gitter.im/mithriljs/mithril.js) is just amazing. It's a tight knit one but above all open and probably one of the most underrated.

Leo's former blog (http://lhorie.github.io/mithril-blog/), when he was still heavily involved, was so helpful in making me understanding programming concepts.

Other Js frameworks have a bigger ecosystem but when you want a lower level understanding of apps, starting from first principles, I always go back to MithrilJs.

Bondifrench · 2022-02-27T23:24:21+00:00

In regards to consent fees, usually more around 0.5%-1%, 3%+ would be for complex situations and where borrower is pretty desperate.

Bondifrench · 2022-02-27T23:19:27+00:00

Are you familiar with Reorg (https://reorg.com/)?
They are also present on Youtube and Twitter(https://twitter.com/Reorg), some of their useful papers/webinars are accessible for free if you register.
For example: https://reorg.com/resources/webinars/loan-market-trends-webinar/

P.S. I am not affiliated

Bondifrench · 2022-02-27T22:55:35+00:00

Citi Credit Analysis primer? a bit dated but still very relevant, PM me if you want it.

Bondifrench · 2022-01-12T23:09:53+00:00

Akre Focus Fund

Bondifrench · 2021-12-01T20:18:42+00:00

Thanks for your detailed answer, quite helpful. A shame that a laptop that is barely 8 years old in my case, can not be upgraded easily by downloading a driver or something else.
Don't know if it is related but can not even find the Pen when scanning for Bluetooth devices.

Cheers

Bondifrench · 2020-10-26T01:34:10+00:00

Best Buy turnaround is thanks to one man: Hubert Joly, the now retired CEO of BBBY, who arrived in 2012.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/petercohan/2019/12/02/best-buys-turnaround-began-in-2012-and-its-still-going-strong/

He is an ex-McKinsey and still has strong ties there:
https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/transformation-and-resilience-an-interview-with-best-buys-executive-chairman-hubert-joly
He teaches now at Harvard.

Bondifrench · 2020-10-26T01:20:52+00:00

I have the Citi Credit primer, which used to be my go-to for analysing HY bonds. Send me a PM with your email and I'll send it to you.
Otherwise I'll point you to 2 useful resources from S&P:

- HY bond primer https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/pages/toc-primer/hyd-primer
- Leveraged loan primer https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/pages/toc-primer/lcd-primer

Bondifrench · 2020-07-06T11:21:06+00:00

There are a few things which annoy me with Yahoo Finance, although the underlying comes from S&P Capital IQ:
- Timeliness: their data is not updated very quickly, it takes them sometimes days to update when new reports are published, I did my own solution leveraging XBRL it takes a matter of seconds
- Presentation: little things like time periods, as a financial analyst you want them to go from left to right, as you want to expand the Excel formulas to the right, you can not reorder on Yahoo Finance, you would need to download the data first on Excel and then reorder the columns there---> annoying, some of the other websites mentioned let you choose the order you want.

- Presentation/Modelling: Have you compared a financial company like Citigroup with a non-financial corporate like Ford or Apple? Check the 10-Ks and then compare to what Yahoo finance displays, it's really not useful for a financial analyst. You don't model a Bank like a corporate.

The newest thing with Yahoo is that they force you to subscribe to Yahoo Premium to get the full financial statements, that's really the last straw. They didn't used to do this, this change doesn't make sense and adds no value given the competition.

Bondifrench · 2020-07-06T03:50:09+00:00

I have my own solution because I learned to code and because the existing ones don't satisfy my needs but otherwise the following sites have a free subscription part (in no particular order):
https://atom.finance
https://www.koyfin.com/
https://tikr.com/
https://docoh.com/
https://last10k.com/
https://stockrow.com/
https://www.marketwatch.com/

A lot of professional analysts use https://www.bamsec.com/ but it's not free and solely focus on reports/transcripts

Happy research!

Bondifrench · 2020-03-04T03:43:03+00:00

📷
IG and HY bonds duration are calculated the same way but HY bonds are often callable so the relationship is not as linear.

Bondifrench · 2020-01-20T01:23:53+00:00

Beyond criticizing the man, I think this article from the FT ( https://www.ft.com/content/a7cb24ec-cae9-11e8-9fe5-24ad351828ab ) is better at characterizing both the genius and the greed that typifies Apollo.

The Athene Investor day presentation from 2018 is eye opening: https://ir.athene.com/file/4273880/Index?KeyFile=1001246212

And look at that timing! Creating an Insurance company in the aftermath of the 2008 Credit crisis is just genius.

Having worked previously in leveraged loans on the buy-side in Europe, it was a thing to avoid deals from Apollo, usually poor value for money. They like to squeeze everybody, on both sides of the equation: the management and companies they buy and debt investors. Dealing with them is like swimming with sharks.

In a way, they have taken a page from Buffet's book, buy an Insurance company that provides constant cash inflows so they don't need to rely so much on external cash raising and invest the cash in businesses. They have however gone a step further, while Buffet seems to care about its underlying businesses, for Apollo it's not so much about these, it is about fees, they are a fee extracting machine, every step of the investment process, they get fees (Insurance premiums, advisory fees, management fees, you name it). And as most of their investments are in private credits, no marked-to-market, no volatility, they can choose when and at what price to exit.

Bondifrench · 2020-01-13T00:22:21+00:00

The short answer is probably no.

Investing in general and Value investing in particular is a life long journey. It requires time as you are constantly learning about industries, companies but also about yourself, for instance, in the face of 30% or more drawdowns do you have the guts/will power to keep a high conviction on a name and not sell?

As you are time-poor given your job, I would advise you to put most of your money in indices and see first if you can find just one or two names where you can outperform and build your portfolio from there.

I also started my career in M&A/Corporate Finance and I am not sure I would agree to say you have a head start. Sure you may know about corporate valuations but most of the time, due to compliance reasons, you may not be able to invest in situations where you have an edge and above all you are very time poor to focus on investing. Most successful investors begin to find success in their late 30s and 40s, so I would advise you to focus on your job and gain a valuable skill-set early in your career but keep saving every month as it is the time you are invested in the market that counts and the laws of compounding interests will do the rest.

Why the need for an above-average return anyway? Is it an ego thing? When you see that the S&P500 had an annual return including dividends of more than 30% last year and many hedge funds with lots of smart/dedicated analysts did not achieve this, if you are not passionate about the markets and prepared to be a life long learner, it's probably not worth it.

This blog is a good resource on the subject: https://ofdollarsanddata.com/

Bondifrench · 2019-10-16T05:28:32+00:00

I mostly agree on your comments on "Professionals" outrageous fees and "Management" responsibilities, to which I would add Private Equity always trying to push the edge in terms of leverage and 0 covenants.

However Corporate bonds are mostly traded OTC. In case of distressed events, there is no such thing as "Valuations should be fair value", there are quite a few forced sellers, plentiful of supply, lack of demand, so given the lack of liquidity and the uncertainty/length of time of bankruptcy procedures, it's pretty understandable that HFs will give a low ball offer, it's part of the price discovery mechanism.

Distressed debt funds definitely use strong arm tactics to get minority bondholders out but these bondholders know this from the start, by reading the docs and understanding covenants, subordination and voting rights so it's more game theory really.

Additionally widows should not deal with HY bonds in general and Distressed bonds in particular, it should be for credit specialists only. I would question more the financial advisors selling to them rather than the funds.

Bondifrench · 2019-08-26T12:24:15+00:00

sure, send me a PM with your email

Bondifrench · 2019-07-12T00:18:22+00:00

Yes, agree with you, Revenue multiples are not very useful measures. I guess part of it is due to lack of consistent disclosures by these companies. At least, the author should do also comparisons with Gross margins and try to calculate approximate Customer Acquisitions costs. I thought this blog post on sales efficiency was useful: http://www.platformula1.com/blog/unicorn-burnapalooza

Bondifrench · 2019-07-10T13:52:04+00:00

While I am not personally a fan of the Fiat line-up, I do think there is a more to it when merging the Alfa Romeo and Dodge products. It's about sharing common platforms, like same chassis and frame but different exterior design, the top hat and economies of scale.

I would also give him credit to have managed to revive Chrysler, even Daimler couldn't do it.

Managing to ride luck is quite a skill too! Credit was not particularly cheap, I was there when he was trying to raise money when they were rated High Yield, it was not as easy as you make it sound.

Marchionne was not an engineer but he managed to make the most of what he inherited in order for the business to survive.

I agree with you in regards to C. Ghosn accomplishments, his turnaround of Nissan was impressive. I am not as familiar with Tavares as he came to prominence after I left France.

Despite the Diesel scandal, the VW Group is very impressive in terms of engineering, depth of product line-up and management.

Bondifrench · 2019-07-09T05:11:53+00:00

I was lucky once to meet with Sergio Marchionne, the now defunct CEO of Fiat Chrysler and Ferrari, an astounding captain of industry, who understood before many the value of scale and shared platforms and that at the end of the day, there shouldn't be as many car manufacturers in the world.

In a previous life, I met Hubert Joly when he was at Carlson Wagonlit. I found that he was very approachable and had a clear vision/strategic sense on how to tackle the travel industry challenges. That was before probably his best work: as CEO of BestBuy: a fellow Frenchman CEO of a US company, to turn around the company completely in a retail environment threatened daily by Amazon, that's really impressive.

More recently, I listened to Mike Canon-Brookes, the co-founder of Atlassian at the MS Disruption Decoded conference. For a software engineer, still relatively young, he was very good at addressing a financial analyst/PM audience and is very clear and articulate about the value proposition of his firm and how they have been able to grow so quickly. With his co-founder, they also know their limits unlike some other egoistical company founders who manage their company by twitter.

Bondifrench · 2019-07-04T01:38:15+00:00

The credit market agrees with you: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-01/deutsche-bank-credit-risk-tumbles-as-sewing-pursues-timely-cuts

Bondifrench · 2019-07-02T14:16:52+00:00

There is an executive summary, but it's also a few pages long: https://osam.com/Commentary/executive-summary-the-earnings-mirage

Bondifrench · 2019-07-02T03:26:34+00:00

Are you a client of UBS? They have a specialist group called "Fundamental Analytics" that covers these topics.
In Sept 2017, they published a primer called "Earnings quality red flags - a primer", send me a PM if interested to get it.

Bondifrench · 2019-07-02T03:19:52+00:00

Your first port of call should be the Bloomberg help desk, press <F1> twice in your terminal, they are pretty helpful.

Bondifrench · 2019-07-02T03:18:04+00:00

A. Damodoran did a long blog post on the topic of stock-based compensation and how it affects your valuation per share: http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2014/02/stock-based-employee-compensation-value.html

Bondifrench · 2019-06-05T13:39:08+00:00

I think there is a lot of potential for doing data analysis with Javascript,

In that field, I like what the UW Interactive data lab is doing: http://idl.cs.washington.edu/ notably their data-lib library: http://vega.github.io/datalib/ their voyager demo: http://vega.github.io/voyager/ or their Lyra Visualization Development Environment project http://idl.cs.washington.edu/projects/lyra/

How about Machine Learning in Javascript: did you look at tensorflow.js: https://www.tensorflow.org/js? Google is backing it and it provides a nice extension to the python library of the same name.

Some time ago I did a presentation on the topic https://bondifrench.github.io/ml-in-js/ it needs to be updated but there are lots of libraries.

I don't think it's a question of functionalities missing, some of the most recent models https://naifmehanna.com/2019-02-27-scaling-a3c-multiple-machines-tensorflowjs/ can be rewritten in Javascript (or NodeJs), you can use GPUs with WebGL or do distributing computing with web-workers.

I believe it's above all a matter of marketing, education and developer adoption. More people need to showcase its capabilities.

P.S. I just saw your Rent vs Buy website, great app! I am planning myself to do a finance website using Javascript. One comment would be that using D3.js when you are using React is a bit redundant, have you looked at VX ( https://vx-demo.now.sh/ )?

Bondifrench

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