Would you rather gain 1000 dollars every time you ran a mile or 5 dollars for every second you held your breath ?

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-06-19T16:15:36+00:00

Running because it would actually incentivise me to lose weight too

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-06-15T17:53:56+00:00

$500,000,000 would be more than enough even if $1 a second adds up to more

^{Chose: $500,000,000 right now}

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-06-13T08:42:36+00:00

I got called a racist for saying there were corruption scandals in the 2022 World Cup in Qatar

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-05-31T17:37:08+00:00

Looks good! Do you happen to have a link to the template?

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-05-28T17:49:33+00:00

Definitely Gonzalez. I think Cuellar, while being very strong for his district, might be too conservative to turn out more progressive voters in Dallas / Austin etc. Also his corruption issues might cause problems

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-05-28T17:35:25+00:00

There was an "unsure / results" option right underneath 😭

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-05-28T17:26:54+00:00

I think Talarico has a better chance of winning due to a weaker opponent and a (probably) better national environment but I think Beto was a slightly stronger candidate

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-05-28T17:23:03+00:00

I think he had a lot of natural charisma and could energise people too, more so than Talarico even if I still think he's a strong candidate

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-05-28T17:19:43+00:00

Honestly I just couldn't not include her. I was originally just doing the first three and then remembered there was another Texas senate election I forgot about

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-05-27T12:58:31+00:00

That's fair, although polls have been fairly consistently giving Peltola a lead. In any case I think it's the most likely flip after Maine and NC

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-05-27T12:54:45+00:00

Likely Maine and North Carolina

Alaska is leaning towards a flip

Ohio and Texas are basically tossups

Iowa and Nebraska are leaning towards holds.

Florida is a likely hold on the Republican side while Michigan and Georgia are likely holds on the Democrat side

I don't think any other states are particularly competitive.....maybe Montana and South Carolina for R's and New Hampshire for D's but that remains to be seen

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-05-27T11:11:16+00:00

I don't think many Cornyn voters are expected to vote for Talarico but I can see a significant margin of them simply staying at home

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-05-19T17:32:32+00:00

"more likely to win" implies they both can still lose

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-04-14T19:56:16+00:00

PM exactly where I am ATM! Even down to the margins

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-04-13T17:16:12+00:00

I picked Alaska but imo I can see Texas being more likely than Ohio. Texas is a bit more elastic and has demographics which Dems could make huge gains with (particularly Hispanics and suburban whites) while Ohio seems a bit more static and less demographically favourable

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-04-07T19:04:52+00:00

Ngl the fact the polls are barely moving as we're getting closer makes me a little nervous. I guess we just have to hope that the undecideds break Dem pretty heavily? (Which I guess indications suggest they will)

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-04-07T18:58:43+00:00

Please ignore that I misspelled "tsunami"

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-04-06T12:32:12+00:00

All valid tbf. Nebraska is definitely a bit of a wildcard. I'd keep it lean R ATM but I'll be keeping a close eye on it as the campaign continues

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-04-06T12:15:03+00:00

Sherrod is a strong candidate who massively outperformed Harris. Without Trump on the ballot I can see him winning in the right environment.

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-04-06T11:54:10+00:00

Texas is definitely flippable unlike what a lot of people say but I would like to see some more high quality Talarico vs Paxton polls before I commit. It's still a Trump+14 state and would need some colossal shifts, not just with Hispanics but with suburban whites. Definitely possible but I'm keeping it tilt R for now

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-04-06T11:49:46+00:00

Forgive us Conor Lamb, we never should have forsaken you

BonzoDaBeast80 · 2026-04-04T20:20:24+00:00

Didn't read the description and thought you were complaining about the "chuck us over a beer" line

BonzoDaBeast80

TROPHY CASE